Computer modelling is a key tool for modern day scientists. We can now use digital projections
to predict a number of things, including what the weather will be like, the effectiveness of a new
medicine, how an upcoming space mission will play out, and how a city could evolve in the future.
But, sometimes, the data that a computer reports back to us is cause for real concern.
This is Unveiled, and today we’re answering the extraordinary question;
is the world really going to end in the year 2040?
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The World One program was commissioned by a group known as the Club of Rome and developed by MIT
scientists back in 1973. It was a computer model to show the way in which certain aspects of human
civilization - including population growth, energy use and quality of life - were trending into the
future. At the time, it attracted some attention… because it saw mostly bad things ahead for us.
Pollution levels, for example, were forecast to skyrocket to the point that they would end up
killing off massive sections of the global population. But ultimately,
it perhaps didn’t worry people enough in the early 1970s. And when, in 2018, the Australian
Broadcasting Corporation re-released news footage showing its original coverage of the story,
the World One program again made headlines across the planet… this time because much of what it had
predicted to happen appeared to be coming true. It suggested, for example, that the global
population would rapidly grow from the ‘70s until at least 2020 - which it has done. It also noted
how the level of natural resources available to us would steadily decline in the same period - which
rings true, as well. It predicted that the somewhat hard to quantify metric of “quality
of life” would also steadily fall so that by 2020 it would match levels last seen in around
1920. The jury’s out on that… but, either way, the outlook from 2020 onwards wasn’t good.
The World One program foresaw that by the year 2040 pollution levels would dramatically rise
beyond all other metrics. As a direct result, it predicted that the global population would
dramatically fall from its 2020 peak (largely because of the pollution and a runaway human
lifestyle). And, finally, it said that “quality of life” would drop even further for those that
still survived. At its bleakest, the World One program predicted the end of civilization by
2040, midway through the twenty-first century. In the 1973 ABC feature, the reporter had gone
on to refer to the then-unknown 2020s as a “highly critical” period. As a specific time when living
conditions could very quickly plummet. And it could be argued that this general message does
reflect the current state of the world, with issues around climate, population and equality
tending to dominate the big questions of today. Now, we’re grappling with the realities of
various climatological tipping points, so much so that we’re increasingly starting to
look at the wider solar system for potential planets to escape to (should we need to).
As a society, we’re increasingly influenced by the idea that an apocalypse could be just
around the corner - which is ultimately what the World One program claimed to be the case.
Elsewhere, the Doomsday Clock is probably the most prominent measure we have for how
long we’ve potentially got left. Managed by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, it’s regularly
updated to reflect current threat levels. In the year 1991 it was at 17 minutes to midnight,
the farthest from midnight it’s ever been since it was created in 1947. Interestingly, at roughly
this time (the early ‘90s) with the World One program, it was predicted that the population
metric would surpass the “quality of life” metric for the first time. And, also, that the pollution
metric would start its rapid, unsustainable rise. And since 1991, the Doomsday Clock has generally
matched the predictions of World One in that its outlook has gotten gloomier and gloomier.
Crucially, in 2020, the Clock was moved the closest to midnight it’s ever been - at 100
seconds to. So, we can see that its projections do still tally with the World One program in that
today’s era is deemed a vital time before a perceived, oncoming, imminent disaster.
Among the reasons cited for the 2020 change to the Clock, the Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists highlighted a failure by world governments to lessen the threat of nuclear war,
as well as a continued failure to address climate change. The stark reality, then,
is that for all the modern world’s advantages, we’re still never without the knowledge that
a hoard of weapons could one day end it all in minutes. And then, there’s the increasing risk
that the general conditions of Earth could turn against us, too, with devastating consequences.
So, with all of this in mind, how far should we really be preparing for the end of days within
the near future? As part of the original ABC feature on the World One prediction,
expert analysts from the Club of Rome had suggested that international blocs could be one of
the best ways forward. And to some degree we have seen the international map evolve in this way,
particularly with the United States, China and the European Union. The same analysts also called for
the world’s biggest polluters to significantly reduce their output, though, and the results
here haven’t been as straightforward. Thankfully, in recent years, we have seen a greater emphasis
on climate issues than perhaps ever before in international law - with the Paris Agreement
tying most of it together, since the first nations signed it in 2016. But, in most cases,
we’re yet to see whether the various ecological targets set by countries all over the world
will be met… and there have already been some high-profile withdrawals from the Paris Agreement,
most notably the United States which withdrew in 2020 (but re-joined in 2021).
According to data from the Union of Concerned Scientists, there is then still great reason to
be, well, greatly concerned. The Union estimates that twenty-eight percent of CO2 emissions
now come from China. The US is second, with around fifteen percent. At the time of the
World One program, however, the United States had been highlighted as the greatest producer of
pollutants in the world. So, we can see how, just in this one instance, the landscape has changed in
the years between 1973 and now. Interestingly, though, the US is still ranked within the top
five countries for carbon emissions per capita, whilst China falls outside the top ten for this
particular measure. But, in general, it really matters not which country is contributing what.
From an international perspective, it’s clear that global carbon emissions are continuing to rise
year on year - and that’s bad news for everyone. Nevertheless, it’s not all doom and gloom. And,
again, the situation has changed considerably since the results of the World One program
were first made public - with more and more modern services, companies and initiatives
aiming to push humanity into a cleaner and safer future. According to the International
Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review 2020, for example, almost twenty-eight percent of
the world’s electricity generation now comes from renewable power sources. And while the growth rate
for renewables has slightly dropped since 2018, the percentage share that renewables have in the
total energy market has continued to increase. During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic,
the IEA also claimed that renewable energy had emerged as the “most resilient” energy
source against lockdown measures. Those who worked on the World One
predictions in the 1970s called for global action to try to combat the alarming trends
that their program had unearthed. So, perhaps this recent increase in the uptake of renewables
is an example of such action taking place… The big question now is; are we too late? And, if not, can
we continue making steps in the right direction? For now, few scientists or authorities would
confidently claim that the world really will end in the year 2040.
And, in fairness, even the World One program didn’t forecast total extinction for humankind…
just the total breakdown of human civilization and a catastrophic drop in population. Still,
it should be unnerving to all of us that so far our recent history has so closely mirrored what
an MIT computer predicted would happen in 1973. And, therefore, its predictions for the next
twenty years can’t be discarded. Instead, they serve as a dire warning for everyone on Earth.
According to the study, there could be dark days ahead for us. But the hope for many in science and
technology, is that all is not lost… just yet. What do you think of the World One prediction?
Will it continue to come true so that the world ends within twenty years? Or is the
outlook brighter now than it was back then? We’ve certainly seen supposed dates for the
end of the world come and go before now… But, even if we do survive to see 2041,
perhaps this is one foreboding forecast that we should be paying attention to!
What do you think? Is there anything we missed? Let us know in the comments, check out these other
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