TO 2014.
HE IS AN MSNBC INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS ANALYST.
AMBASSADOR MCFAUL, UKRAINE
DIDN'T COMMENT ON THAT ATTACK
IN RUSSIA.
BUT HOW SIGNIFICANT OF A
DEVELOPMENT WOULD THAT BE, IF
UKRAINE SHOWS IT CAN REACH
RUSSIAN SOIL?
>> WELL, WHENEVER I HEAR A
SENIOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL
SAYING, I CAN NEITHER CONFIRM
NOR DENY, IT SOUNDS LIKE
THEY'RE ACTUALLY CONFIRMING.
OTHERWISE, THEY WOULD HAVE
DENIED IT.
SO IT SOUNDS LIKE THEY DID
COMPLETE THIS OPERATION.
IT SOUNDS LIKE THEY WANTED TO
DEMONSTRATE THAT THEY HAVE THAT
CAPABILITY.
AND I THINK THAT THEY WANTED TO
DEMONSTRATE THAT IF YOU'RE
GONNA FUEL YOUR PLANES, AND
YOU'RE GONNA FUEL YOUR WEAPONS,
YOUR TRUCKS, ACROSS THE BORDER
FROM KHARKIV, WE'RE GONNA
STRIKE YOU WHERE YOU ARE
FUELING YOUR WEAPONS, YOUR
TRUCKS, AND YOUR AUTOMOBILES
THAT ARE STRIKING US.
>> ANY CONCERN, AMBASSADOR,
THAT THE RUSSIANS WILL VIEW
THIS ATTACK ON RUSSIAN SOIL, BY
UKRAINE AND SAY, OKAY, WARS WAR.
BUT WITH THOSE WEAPONS COME
FROM.
AND OF THOSE WEAPONS CAME FROM
THE WEST, WITH THE USE THAT AS
A REASON TO LOB BOMBS INTO
POLAND, FOR INSTANCE?
>> FIRST, THOSE WEAPONS DIDN'T
COME FROM US.
SO THAT'S GOOD NEWS.
THE SECOND, I THINK THAT'S
HIGHLY, HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT, IF YOU
DO THAT, IF YOU DO THAT,
THERE'S GONNA BE ESCALATION.
WELL, LET'S DEFINE ESCALATION.
RUSSIA, THE RUSSIAN ARMED
FORCES ARE HAVING AN INCREDIBLY
DIFFICULT TIME FIGHTING AGAINST
AN ARMY THAT IS NOT AS WELL
EQUIPPED AS IT SHOULD BE.
AND HIS NEARLY, NOT NEARLY THE
CAPACITY OF THE NATO ALLIANCE,
LET ALONE THE MOST POWERFUL
MILITARY IN THE WORLD, THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
SO IN THIS MOMENT RIGHT NOW, I
THINK IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT
PUTIN WOULD SAY, OH, I WANT TO
EXPAND THIS WAR.
I WANT TO GET NATO INVOLVED.
I WANT TO GET THE UNITED STATES
OF AMERICA INVOLVED.
I DON'T THINK THAT'S GONNA
HAPPEN.
BUT I DO THINK THAT WHAT
THEY'RE DOING IS THAT THEY KEEP
USING THOSE WORDS, THEY KEEP
SAYING THOSE THINGS, PRECISELY,
TO MAKE THEM LEAD THE ALLIANCE,
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES
WORRIED ABOUT ARMING THE
UKRAINIANS.
AND I THINK WE SHOULD BE STRONG
HERE, AND JUST DOUBLY SAY
WHAT'S WE'RE GONNA DO, CONTINUE
TO ARM THEM, APPLAUD WHAT THE
PENTAGON JUST ANNOUNCED A FEW
MINUTES AGO, $300 MILLION, OR
MORE, IN MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
THE ONLY WAY THERE WILL BE
PEACE IN UKRAINE IS IF THERE IS
A MILITARY STALEMATE.
AND UNTIL THERE IS NOT A
MILITARY STALEMATE, PUTIN WILL
CONTINUE TO ATTACK.
AND THEREFORE, IF YOU WANT
PEACE, YOU GET HELP BRING ABOUT
THAT STALEMATE.
>> ONE MORE QUESTION FOR YOU,
AMBASSADOR MCFAUL, SPEAKING OF
THE PENTAGON, THE PENTAGON
CANCELED AND MISSILE TESLA
LAUNCH OVER CONCERNS THAT PUTIN
WOULD VIEW AS ESCALATORY.
WAS THIS THE RIGHT CALL?
WHICH IS THE U.S. BE DOING
RIGHT NOW?
YOU TALK PARTIALLY ABOUT THAT,
TO DEFEAT RUSSIA WITHOUT
ESCALATING THE SITUATION.
BUT TALK ABOUT THE CANCELLATION
OF THAT MISSILE TEST.
>> I THINK THAT'S FINE.
YOU KNOW, I USED TO WORK AT THE
WHITE HOUSE UNDER PRESIDENT
OBAMA, WE USED TO DO THAT FROM
TIME TO TIME, IN TERMS OF WHEN
THERE WERE TENSE MOMENTS.
AND IT'S ABOUT MISPERCEPTIONS
THAT WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT.
SO I THINK THAT'S A PRUDENT
MOVE.
WE DO NOT WANT TO ESCALATE.
WE DO NOT WANT TO GET INTO A
WAR WITH RUSSIA.
I COMPLETELY, 100%, SUPPORTED
THE PRESIDENT, WHEN HE SAYS
WE'RE NOT GONNA ENFORCE A NO
FLY ZONE, BECAUSE THAT IS
DECLARING WAR.
BUT ANYTHING SHORT OF THAT, I
THINK WE NEED TO BE DOING AS
MUCH AS WE CAN.
>> ONE MORE QUESTION FOR YOU,
AMBASSADOR MCFAUL.
GIVEN WHAT WE LEARNED TO SPEAK
ABOUT PUTIN BEING MISINFORMED,
BY HIS ADVISORS, AND NOW
REPORTING THAT PUTIN'S
CONSCRIPTING 100 PLUS THOUSAND
NEW CONSCRIPTS, WHAT DOES THIS
TELL YOU ABOUT HOW THINGS, HOW
THINGS MIGHT GET WORSE FOR
PUTIN'S WAR?
>> WELL, I'M A LITTLE SKEPTICAL
ABOUT THAT REPORTING THAT HE
WAS MISINFORMED.
YOU KNOW, WE HAVE NO WAY TO
CHECK OUR INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY.
BUT I WONDER ABOUT THAT.
AND YOU KNOW, MAYBE THAT SOME
DISINFORMATION GAME WE'RE
PLAYING, ABOUT HIM, AND MAYBE
HE WANTS TO SIGNAL THAT.
BUT HE'S UPSET WITH HIS
GENERALS.
AND MOST CERTAINLY, THERE IS A
REPORTING I READ FROM RUSSIAN
SOURCES, THAT HE'S VERY UPSET
WITH THE WAY THE WAR IS GOING.
BUT I THINK YOU RAISE A VERY
GOOD POINT.
THE DRAFT JUST HAPPENED, YOU
KNOW.
THIS IS NORMAL STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURE.
RUSSIA, APRIL 1ST, IT'S ONE OF
THOSE DAYS.
AND I THINK IT HAS BEEN A
TREMENDOUS SUCCESS BY THE
UKRAINIAN MILITARY SO FAR.
AND AT THIS SAME TIME, RUSSIA
HAS TREMENDOUS MILITARY
CAPACITY STILL LEFT.