O'Neil: Mexico's transformed over the last three decades, mostly in good ways. It's moved
from a closed authoritarian system to a vibrant, if at times messy democracy. It's moved from
a closed economy to one of the most open in the world and one that's increasingly competitive
globally. It's also seen the rise of a middle class, and now we see a majority of Mexicans
who have disposable income and that in turn is fueling economic growth in the country
through consumption. So many things are moving in the right direction. But we've also seen
during this period a rise in violence, a real crisis on the security side. In the last five
years we've seen fifty thousand people killed in drug and organized crime related violence.
Much of this is led by drug trafficking into the United States but it's become so much
more. We see growing extortion, we see kidnapping, we see contraband, we see human smuggling
and these prey upon the general population within Mexico.
Hope: There are many drivers to this crisis. One is government policy but not only government
policy. The increase in inter-cartel violence probably began 2004, 2005, but it was at a
relatively low level. December 2006 is when President Calderon decided to launch the first
massive federal operation against drug trafficking organizations.
When the government offensive began in 2007 you had basically four-five criminal organizations.
Over the past five years you have had an atomization and a series of splits and schisms within
the organizations. And what you have is no longer cartels but gangs.
O'Neil: Mexico is a country that has been historically quite unequal. You see poverty
in many areas. Mexico's been improving but there are still millions that are left on
the margins, and those are the types of populations that the drug cartels or gangs look to and
often recruit from. There is a popular saying in Mexico that its better to live five years
as a king, a "rey", than as 50 years as an Ox - as a "buey". And the idea here is that
the opportunities for the long term for particularly poorer youth is so limited that it's better
to go with the narcos now and be a narco king than just be a laborer who would live a long
time and so the challenge for the Mexican government is to turn that equation around.
Hope: This is also a crisis of Mexican security and justice institutions that have shown themselves
quite unable to deal with this level of violence. You have very either weak, incompetent or
corrupt police forces at the state and particularly at the municipal level. You have a judicial
system where prosecutors are basically driven to obtain confessions and not to investigate,
most of the prisons are disaster areas; there is a significant weakness in every step of
the way of the local justice and security system.
Vargas: In Ciudad Juarez people had undergone a pretty extensive period of directly or indirectly
being impacted by the violence, and so businesses began to close because of the extortion. The
city also lost a lot of jobs because of insecurity, and a lot of people migrated from the city,
education is really a problem and so gangs become a very prominent phenomenon and especially
in more marginalized neighborhoods.
Hope: The sense of fear and the sense of helplessness has extended beyond the areas that are mostly
affected by the increasing violence. It has changed the national conversation in Mexico,
and it has changed the way Mexicans think of their country.
Obama: There's one particular area that requires our urgent and coordinated action, and that
is the battle that's taking place with -- with respect to the drug cartels that are fueling
kidnappings and sowing chaos in our communities and robbing so many of a future, both here
in Mexico and in the United States.
Patrick: While Mexico is unlikely to implode and become a truly failed state, the Mexican
drug war has already spilled across its borders. In particular, it's weakened the institutions
of all Central American countries, which now suffer from some of the world's highest rates
of homicide.
Hope: The way forward is to continue dismantling criminal organizations, strengthening the
institutional framework and creating a social and economic base for the rule of law.
Vargas: I can't not be optimistic about my country but besides security and direct confrontations
to criminal activity there are a lot of things that a society in this situation of conflict
needs to address. You need to have a hard hand but you also need to have some soft policy
solutions to the problem.
Patrick: The international community has done very little to try to address Mexico's drug
situation for two reasons. First, it really doesn't have the mandate or the capacity to
do anything, particularly without the explicit invitation of the Mexican government. And
the Mexicans are very attached to the principle of sovereignty. The second reason has to do
with the United States, which has preferred to keep its relationship with Mexico on a
bilateral framework rather than going for a more regional approach.
O'Neil: The United States can play a big role in helping Mexico with the problem of violence.
They could deal with the guns that are going south and police the border much more strongly.
They can help slow the money that feeds the violence that keeps these organizations going
by stopping the money laundering that goes south to Mexico. We can also have a real discussion
about demand in the United States.
Hope: The drug war is not winnable in the sense that drug flow will not stop but it
is winnable in the sense that the country can regain normalcy. My greatest fear is that
the current levels of violence will become entrenched -- that we'll get used to having
30,000 homicides a year, that the sense
of urgency that there is now will be lost.