>> NBC'S RICHARD ENGEL IN KYIV
FOR US THIS MORNING.
RICHARD, THANKS SO MUCH.
GUYS.
>>> AMBASSADOR McFAUL, JUST
WANTED TO GET A BIG PICTURE ON
WHAT RUSSIA IS ABLE TO DO.
WE'VE BEEN DEBATING THE ISSUE OF
THE MIGs.
WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
LIMITED HUMANITARIAN NO-FLY
ZONES, BUT ALSO RUSSIA'S
SURPRISE THAT THEY HAVE MET SUCH
A RESISTANCE.
I AM WONDERING, DO WE KNOW HOW
MUCH OF THEIR MILITARY IS
ENGAGED AT THIS POINT, HOW MUCH
OF A BACKUP DO THEY HAVE?
LOOKING AT THE LONG GAME, HOW
LONG THEY COULD GO AT THIS
KNOWING THAT UKRAINIANS WILL NOT
BREAK?
>> IT IS A GREAT QUESTION.
JUST SO WE'RE CLEAR, I DO NOT
SUPPORT A NO-FLY ZONE AND I WANT
US TO STOP USING THAT PHRASE.
I WANT YOU TO START USING THE
PHRASE DECLARATION OF WAR.
THEN YOU ASK PEOPLE, DO YOU
SUPPORT A DECLARATION OF WAR
AGAINST RUSSIA?
BECAUSE IF AN AMERICAN PILOT
SHOOTS DOWN A RUSSIAN PILOT HAS
A DECLARATION OF WAR.
I'M HERE IN PHILADELPHIA
ACTUALLY.
I JUST TALKED TO THE HOUSE
DEMOCRATS AT THEIR RETREAT AND I
ENCOURAGED THEM TO USE THAT
PHRASE.
I DON'T SUPPORT THAT.
EVERYTHING BELOW THAT I SUPPORT
110%, BECAUSE IF THEY DON'T WIN
WE LOSE AND US LOSING IN UKRAINE
HAS BIG, BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR
EUROPE, THE MIDDLE EAST AND
ASIA.
WITH RESPECT TO PUTIN, HE'S GOT
MOST OF HIS MILITARY LEFT.
I TALKED TO A SENIOR
ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL
YESTERDAY.
I'M LEARNING HOW TO USE THAT
PHRASE NOW BEING ON THE OTHER
SIDE, AN S.A.O.
I USED TO BE ONE.
HE HAS 95% OF HIS ARMY LEFT.
HE HAS 95% OF HIS ARSENAL LEFT.
THEY'VE LOST A LOT.
HE'S LOST WAY MORE THAN THEY
THOUGHT, BUT THEY'RE STILL ON
THE MOVE.
I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER WARS TRADITIONALLY END
IN TWO WAYS.
EITHER ONE SIDE WINS OR THERE'S
A STALEMATE.
RIGHT NOW THERE'S NOT A
STALEMATE IN UKRAINE.
PUTIN IS STILL MARCHING FORWARD.
THAT, I THINK, MEANS WE'RE GOING
TO HAVE MANY MORE TRAGIC WEEKS
AHEAD OF US.
>> SO, RICHARD, LET'S PLAN AHEAD
HERE.
>> 95%.
>> WE KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN.
WE SAW IT AGAIN, AS I SAID, WE
HAVE SEEN IT IN CHECHNYA, WE
HAVE SEEN IT IN SYRIA, OF
COURSE, ALEPPO BEING THE MOST
EXTREME EXAMPLE.
THESE WAR CRIMES ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE.
IF THEY DON'T GET THEIR WAY,
PUTIN WILL USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
AT THAT POINT THE WESTERN WORLD,
THE REST OF THE WORLD IS
PROBABLY GOING TO DECIDE THAT
THEY HAVE TO GET INVOLVED, THEY
HAVE TO GO IN ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER.
SO WHY DON'T WE JUST PLAN AHEAD
RIGHT NOW?
I'M CURIOUS WHY -- I SAW THIS
YESTERDAY, DEFENSE ONE, I'M
CURIOUS.
INSTEAD OF US JUST HAVING A ZERO
SUM GAME WHERE WE SIT ON THE
SIDELINES AND WATCH THESE WAR
CRIMES CONTINUE, THESE WAR
CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY, WATCH
THEM USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS ON
UKRAINIANS AND KNOWING THAT THE
UNITED STATES OR NATO CAN'T GO
IN, WHY DON'T WE TAKE A COUPLE
OF STEPS BACK, SEE WHAT WE DID
IN SYRIA, PERHAPS GO TO THE
UNITED NATIONS, GO TO THE
GENERAL ASSEMBLY, HAVE
HUMANITARIAN ZONES, SECURITY
ZONES THAT WERE SET UP IN SYRIA
TO STOP THE MASSIVE KILLING
THERE, AND TAKE IT TO THE UNITED
NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY FOR A
VOTE.
IF THAT VOTE PASSES, YOU
WOULDN'T HAVE VLADIMIR PUTIN
AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OR
AGAINST NATO.
YOU WOULD HAVE VLADIMIR PUTIN
HAVING TO DECIDE WHETHER HE WAS
GOING TO LAUNCH MISSILES AT THE
UNITED NATIONS AND UNITED
NATIONS PEACEKEEPERS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT?
>> THAT THE IDEA OF BYPASSING
THE SECURITY COUNCIL, JOE, MAKES
A LOT OF SENSE BECAUSE THE
SECURITY COUNCIL OBVIOUSLY
RUSSIA VETOES.
I UNDERSTAND THE IDEA OF TRYING
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF
HUMANITARIAN ZONES OR OPERATIONS
THERE.
THERE'S TWO BIG ISSUES.
ONE IS WHETHER YOU COULD GET THE
VOTES.
A LOT OF COUNTRIES IN AFRICA,
THE MIDDLE EAST AND ELSEWHERE
WILL BE RELUCTANT I THINK TO
TAKE SIDES HERE.
THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING.
SECOND OF ALL, IF AND WHEN
RUSSIA WERE TO SAY THIS WAS
UNWELCOME, I THINK A LOT OF
COUNTRIES WOULD BE, QUITE
HONESTLY, SPOOKED BY THE IDEA OF
GETTING INTO SOMETHING THAT
WOULD BE MILITARY QUITE
DEMANDING.
THE U.N. HAS A TRADITION OF
PEACE KEEPING.
NOT A LOT OF PEACE MAKING,
PARTICULARLY NOT AGAINST A GREAT
POWER.
SO MY HUNCH IS THIS WOULD BE
ENORMOUSLY DIFFICULT POLITICALLY
AND THEN ENORMOUSLY DIFFICULT ON
THE GROUND.
I THINK IT IS WORTH EXPLORING
JUST TO SEE WHETHER -- WHERE
PEOPLE STAND AND WHAT THERE'S
APPETITE FOR.
I WILL BE HONEST.
MY HUNCH IS THINGS ARE GOING TO
MOVE FASTER ON THE GROUND IN
UKRAINE THAT THEY PROBABLY WILL
MOVE IN NEW YORK IN THE GENERAL
ASSEMBLY.
>> YOU KNOW, MICHAEL McFAUL, WE
HAVE BEEN ON THIS SHOW NOW FOR
15 YEARS AND WE'RE HERE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL
WAR, 10,000 PEOPLE DIED.
WE ASKED POLICYMAKERS WHAT COULD
WE DO.
WELL, IT IS DIFFICULT.
20,000 DIE, 40,000, 50,000 DIED.
BARACK OBAMA SAID, IT IS
DIFFICULT, WHAT CAN WE DO.
WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WE CAN DO.
75,000 DIE.
100,000 DIE.
200,000 DIE.
400,000 DIE.
500,000 PEOPLE KILLED.
FINALLY SECURITY ZONES ARE SET
UP THERE.
I'M CURIOUS IF WE DON'T --
AGAIN, I HAVE BEEN SAYING LIKE
YOU, IF YOU ARE GOING TO DECLARE
A NO-FLY ZONE WHY DON'T YOU JUST
DECLARE WAR.
IN FACT, INVITE WORLD WAR III.
I DO THINK WE HAVE TO LOOK AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF DOING WHAT WE
DID IN SYRIA BECAUSE WHEN THOSE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARE GOING TO BE
USED I THINK WESTERN LEADERS
WILL BE PUT INTO A POSITION
WHERE THEY'RE GOING TO SEND
TROOPS IN ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
SO IS IT NOT BETTER FOR US TO
START PLANNING AHEAD?
BECAUSE WE KNOW WHERE THIS ENDS,
AND PLAN AHEAD AND TRY TO GET
U.N. ACTION SO THERE ARE
HUMANITARIAN ZONES?
AND THE GREAT THING ABOUT THIS,
AS YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYBODY
ELSE, AND FORGIVE ME FOR GOING
ON A LITTLE BIT BUT YOU CAN
EXPLAIN THIS, THE RUSSIANS HAVE
CYNICALLY USED THE UNITED
NATIONS FOR YEARS.
THEY SAY, OH, WE WANT TO TAKE --
I WAS TALKING TO A RUSSIAN
DIPLOMAT TWO YEARS AGO WHO SAID,
WE WANT TO GO THROUGH THE UNITED
NATIONS.
YOU AMERICANS THINK YOU RUN THE
WORLD AND THE WHOLE -- THE WORLD
ORDER CENTERS AROUND YOU.
WELL, WE THINK IT SHOULD CENTER
AROUND THE UNITED NATIONS.
OF COURSE, BECAUSE THEY HAVE A
VETO THERE.
SO WHY DON'T WE CALL THEIR
CYNICAL BLUFF.
GO TO THE UNITED NATIONS.
GO TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY AND
SET UP HUMANITARIAN ZONES?
>> WELL, I'M GLAD YOU BROUGHT
SYRIA UP BECAUSE I WORKED IN THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION DURING THAT
PERIOD.
I WROTE A BOOK ABOUT MY TIME --
ACTUALLY, I WROTE A BOOK ABOUT
U.S./RUSSIAN RELATIONS OVER THE
LAST 30 YEARS.
I HAVE ONE CHAPTER CALLED
"CHASING THE RUSSIANS, FAILING
THE SYRIANS."
I WRITE HONESTLY ABOUT HOW WE
WERE TOO REACTIVE.
WE KEPT TRYING TO DO A DEAL WITH
THE RUSSIANS INSTEAD OF TAKING
THE OFFENSIVE UNILATERALLY ON
MORE CREATIVE IDEAS INCLUDING
THE ONE YOU JUST DESCRIBED.
SO I SUPPORT THAT.
I AM STRUCK BY HOW LITTLE THE
UNITED NATIONS HAS DONE, FOR
INSTANCE, IN THE NEGOTIATIONS
BETWEEN THE RUSSIANS AND THE
UKRAINIANS.
WHY IS THERE NOT GREATER UNITED
NATIONS PARTICIPATION IN THOSE
NEGOTIATIONS?
AND IF YOU CAN DO THE CREATIVE
THING, IT SHOULD BE TRIED, I
AGREED WITH RICHARD.
I'M NOT OPTIMISTIC, BUT I'M ALSO
NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE TIMING.
I AGREE WITH YOU.
WE NEED TO STOP BEING SO
DEFENSIVE, SO REACTIVE.
>> EXACTLY.
>> BE MORE OFFENSIVE IN TERMS OF
WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO TO HELP
THE UKRAINIANS STOP PUTIN
INSIDE.
NO-FLY ZONE, I THINK THE
PRESIDENT SHOULD BE JUST CRYSTAL
CLEAR.
WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEND
SOLDIERS.
I DISAGREE WITH THOSE WHO THINK
WE CAN SECURE A HUMANITARIAN
ZONE INSIDE UKRAINE.
I DON'T THINK THAT'S FEASIBLE.
BUT EVERYTHING ELSE, THERE'S
LOTS OF WEAPON SYSTEMS, LOTS OF
WEAPON SYSTEMS, SURFACE-TO-AIR
MISSILE SYSTEMS, SOME OF THEM
POST-SOVIET SYSTEMS, BY THE WAY,
THAT WHEN I TALKED TO PRESIDENT
ZELENSKYY HE IS PRETTY CRYSTAL
CLEAR ABOUT WHAT THE MENU IS.
RATHER THAN TALKING ABOUT IT AND
DELIBERATING AND SAY, WELL, THE
POLS CAN DO IT IF THEY WANT, I
THINK IT IS A VERY WEAK MOVE.
WE ARE -- THE NATO ALLIANCE
SHOULD BE MOVING TOGETHER
OFFENSIVELY IN MY VIEW, THAT IS
PROACTIVELY AND QUIETLY.
>> WELL, AND ONE OTHER THING IS
WHILE WE'RE ON SYRIA, YOU ARE SO
RIGHT.
I THINK THE FRUSTRATING THING IS
WE ARE ALWAYS ON THE DEFENSIVE
AGAINST PUTIN.
HE IS ALWAYS A DISRUPTER.
WE ARE ALWAYS PLAYING CATCH-UP.
I WISH JOE BIDEN, I WISH WE
WOULD GET THE MESSAGE TO HIM.
YOU KNOW, DONALD TRUMP RETREATED
FROM SYRIA.
WE HAD 2,500 TROOPS THERE THAT
WERE DOING AN EXTRAORDINARY JOB
PROTECTING PEOPLE.
YOU KNOW WHAT?
WE'RE SEEING WHAT YOU ARE DOING
IN UKRAINE.
WE ARE SEEING THAT THE TERROR IS
STILL GOING ON IN SYRIA.
WE UNDERSTAND THAT DONALD TRUMP
WANTED TO TURN SYRIA OVER TO THE
RUSSIANS FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE IS IT 73, GIVING THEM --
YOU SAID, YOU KNOW, WE MAY JUST
HAVE TO SEND THOSE 2,500, THOSE
3,000 TROOPS BACK INTO SYRIA TO
ACT AS PEACEKEEPERS AGAIN.
I'M NOT SAYING WE DO IT, BUT
PUTTING IT OUT THERE AND ASKING
VLADIMIR PUTIN, OKAY, YOU'RE
SAYING WE CAN'T CROSS THAT LINE.
FINE, I TELL YOU ONE LINE WE CAN
CROSS.
WE CAN GO BACK INTO SYRIA,
BECAUSE UNLIKE DONALD TRUMP WE
DON'T WANT TO CEDE SYRIA TO YOU.
I MEAN WE JUST NEED MORE
AGGRESSIVE THINKING THAT DOESN'T
TRIGGER WORLD WAR III BECAUSE
PUTIN, YOU'RE RIGHT, WE ARE
ALWAYS ON THE DEFENSIVE.
WE ARE ALWAYS REACTING TO HIM.
IT IS TIME THAT WE LEANED
FORWARD A BIT.
>> WELL, AND JUST TO REEMPHASIZE
BECAUSE WE GO FROM DOING WHAT
WE'RE DOING NOW TO WORLD WAR III
IN THESE CONVERSATIONS, RIGHT.
EVERYBODY SAYS THAT.
>> RIGHT.
>> WE DON'T WANT TO DO THAT
BECAUSE IT IS ESCALATORY.
I WANT TO BE CRYSTAL CLEAR.
I JUST WROTE MY LATEST COLUMN
ABOUT HOW TO AVOID NUCLEAR
ARMAGEDDON.
OF COURSE, WE ARE ALL FOR THAT.
BUT IF WE CAN ESTABLISH -- AND I
THINK WE HAVE ESTABLISHED, BY
THE WAY, ACCORDING TO PEOPLE I
HAVE TALKED TO IN THE
GOVERNMENT -- THAT PUTIN WAS
MORE -- THAT WAS MORE BARK THAN
BITE, THAT HE IS NOT GOING TO GO
ON A SUICIDE MISSION AND LAUNCH
A NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST.
THEN YOU HAVE TO SAY, WELL, WHAT
IS BETWEEN WHERE WE ARE AT NOW
AND BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF
NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST.
IT IS A LOT.
WHEN WE SAY WE FEAR ESCALATION,
I WANT SOME MORE FIDELITY TO
WHAT THAT MEANS BECAUSE I DON'T
THINK YOU CAN ATTACK NATO RIGHT
NOW FOR THE REASONS I ALREADY
DESCRIBED.
SO I JUST THINK JUST AS A
POSTURE, EVEN THE WAY WE TALK WE
HAVE TO TALK WITH MORE
CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHAT WE'RE
DOING.
THE WORLD WANTS US TO BE
STRONGER, NOT JUST THE
UKRAINIANS BUT IN THE MIDDLE
EAST, IN ASIA.
THEY WANT US TO BE STRONGER, AND
I THINK WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND
THAT THAT HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
WHAT WE DO IN UKRAINE.
IF WE LOSE IN UKRAINE, THAT HAS
GIANT IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR
STRATEGIC POSTURE AROUND THE
WORLD, AND I THINK RATHER THAN
BEING CAUTIOUS WE NEED TO LEAN