China’s invasion of Taiwan
is coming
Possibly a lot sooner than you think
Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m Chris Chappell.
The Chinese Communist Party has become increasingly aggressive toward Taiwan.
By the end of 2022, Chinese military incursions close to Taiwanese airspace had become routine.
Which is a messed up routine. Have your morning coffee, walk the dog,
intimidate your neighbor with the ever looming threat of invasion... and make the bed.
Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was telling
top officials he would never renounce the right to use force to take Taiwan.
And when then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August,
China even rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan. But some said there was no imminent threat.
Yeah, so calm down! What, do you bank employees get nervous when guys in ski masks come in with
guns and practice robbing the place? It’s just a rehearsal. Don’t be so paranoid!
A Chinese Communist Party conquest of Taiwan would be a disaster.
Taiwan is a thriving democratic country.
For it to fall to an authoritarian regime would be a bad sign. It would demolish the idea that the US
could protect its allies, like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. It would send a
message in the Indo Pacific that the Chinese Communist Party is the only player in town.
The Chinese Communist Party’s military would dominate the region.
But as much as the CCP wants Taiwan,
it would prefer to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic coercion.
Or heck, maybe they’ll finally just try being nice
and offering them some flowers. It’s almost Valentine’s Day, after all.
They’d prefer that over military force. There are a lot of reasons for this.
For one, Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine has shown how a small force of
resistance fighters can hold off much better equipped invaders.
And the CCP would not want to face the same international backlash.
A war would also be very costly. Both in terms of lives, and even more tragic for the CCP… money!
There, there. I’ll sacrifice as many citizens as it takes. But I won’t let anything happen to you.
China is in the midst of an economic crisis.
It’s made worse by a demographic crisis.
And despite the rapidly aging population, many young people can’t find work.
Hey, they should try a job in the military! It’s not like they have
to worry about going to war any time soon.
They’re just rehearsals! Stop being so paranoid!
There’s also the current Covid crisis.
80% of the country may be infected.
That’s more than a billion people. And many of them are elderly,
which means they are more likely to die from Covid.
Especially when many hospitals look like this.
There are so many cremations happening right now,
Burning Man isn’t a music festival. It’s what the air smells like.
So again, an expensive invasion of Taiwan that kills off many of China’s youth,
and risks a global backlash is really not Plan A.
Nevertheless, a top US general is now predicting an invasion could be just two years away.
And the US is preparing. But in trying to avoid a war,
could the US end up accidentally sparking one? More after the break.
Welcome back.
People have been trying to figure out when China’s going to invade Taiwan.
Some have said 2027, which is the 100 year anniversary of the People's Liberation Army.
Others have said 2035, when the Party says it will have basically achieved socialist modernization.
Although if they wait until they achieve that,
they’re not going to invade until… half past never.
Some have put an invasion as soon as 2024,
though the Pentagon denied that.
But in a recent memo, General Michael A. Minihan , who oversees the Air Force’s
fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, says “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”
Wow, that’s a smart gut he’s got there. My stomach only warns me
of impending doom about 40 minutes after I get Arby’s.
Now the Pentagon is denying this, too. However, there is a lot to that date.
General Minihan points out that both the US and Taiwan have presidential elections in 2024.
2025 also lines up with what Taiwan’s defense minister has said.
But again, the general consensus is that there
is a very real threat China will invade at some point.
And the US is preparing.
Word is, new Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy will make a Taiwan visit this year.
Other US representatives have introduced a bill
pushing for Taiwan’s membership in the International Monetary Fund.
That kind of recognition by an international
organization would make it much more awkward for China to invade.
Meanwhile, a Congressional resolution has been introduced calling on the Biden Administration
to end the US government’s one China policy and formally recognize Taiwan independence.
It also calls for a free trade agreement with Taiwan.
Of course, resolutions are nonbinding. They don’t actually change policy.
They’re more of a statement that this is something Congress thinks should happen.
These are all good things. Because the more support the US shows for Taiwan,
the more costly it is for the CCP to invade Taiwan.
The problem is that as tensions escalate over Taiwan,
the risk increases that a war could accidentally be sparked.
Even worse, some might come to see a war for war’s sake as a good idea.
I’ve talked before about the mistaken idea some analysts have that the problem is Chinese
leader Xi Jinping, not the Communist Party itself. That if you remove him,
then the West can freely invest in China and make a lot of money again.
Some have even suggested a war over Taiwan could be a good way to oust Xi.
Cai Xia , a former professor at the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party,
wrote in Foreign Affairs last year, “The only viable way of changing course [is]
a humiliating defeat in a war. If Xi were to attack Taiwan… there is a good chance that the
war would not go as planned. In that event, the elites and the masses would abandon Xi.”
Unless he tries being nice and offering them some flowers, too.
And while Wall Street may have its reasons for hoping to see Xi
ousted, there’s another group that also shares an interest in war.
Weapons manufacturers, wherever they’re based, literally make a living from killing.
In President Dwight D. Eisenhower's 1961 farewell speech, he warned
of a "military-industrial complex," a collection of armed forces bureaucrats,
plus arms making corporations and others, who share an interest in keeping wars going.
But most people do not want to see the US get into a war with China.
And that’s why it’s so important for the US to put on a strong show of support for
Taiwan now. Because that’s the best hope of preventing a war.
And breaking up the CCP’s disturbing morning routine.
If you’d like to learn more about the military industrial complex,
check out the most recent episode of our new channel Gamers Unbeaten,
Nier Automata Deconstructs the Military Industrial Complex. I’ll put a link below.
And now it’s time for me to answer a question from a fan who supports China Uncensored on
the crowd funding website Patreon, or our exclusive social media platform on Locals.
Today’s question comes from Mtnman22 on Locals. I had a very dark thought. Is
the CCP stopping zero Covid partly to fix their demographic crisis?
Wouldn't it benefit the CCP to get rid of people outside the working age? Ick.
Well that’s a very interesting idea.
As I mentioned earlier in the episode,
China’s population is shrinking, and there are more and more elderly.
Elderly people are so expensive to take care of.
So if a bunch of the elderly die from Covid, wouldn’t that help the Party?
Here are a couple problems with that idea. Number one, the current Covid surge was well
underway even before the Communist Party ended the Zero Covid policy.
It’s most likely the Party ended it because it was going to become very
clear that the policy wasn’t working—and that would embarrass the Party even more.
And that’s the biggest issue with the idea this was engineered by the Party. If a huge number of
people start dying from Covid, that makes it look like the Party isn’t as great, glorious, and in
control as it always said it was. That directly undermines the legitimacy of Communist rule.
The Party would much rather deal with the demographic
crisis by getting young people to have kids.
That’s why one province even ended the ban on unmarried people having children.
Yes, that was not allowed before. I’d expect to see the Party doing much more
to encourage births, since that gives the Party more control over people’s lives,
rather than hoping a pandemic outside of the Party’s control kills a bunch of elderly people.
Thanks for your question and your support Mtnman22.
And thank you for watching. If you want to help us fight the Chinese Communist Party, join our
exclusive social media platform on Locals. For a small monthly contribution you can chat with Matt,
Shelley, and myself, as well as the entire community. Join at chinauncensored.locals.com
Once again I’m Chris Chappell, see you next time.