Look, you don’t want to upset the Russian president during his celebration of annexing
Ukrainian territories.
Even if it involves poor military decisions that can lead to the encirclement of 5000
Russian troops.
It's just not worth it!
Sacrificing troops and equipment is no big deal.
It really isn’t.
What really matters is that for the next 24 hours Lyman remains ours and that the president
doesn’t receive any bad news.
Remember.
We are mobilizing!
Ukrainian victories are temporary and we will take the Ukrainian territories back.
True… it was a rough start, and yes we don’t have enough beds for the mobilized forces,
but the bonfires will do.
As long as we keep our soldiers happy and get them to the battlefield safely… cough-cough…
we should be fine.
Hey, what I said may have seemed like sarcasm, but it wasn’t.
And if you are still not convinced that the Russian army is number 2 in the world….
“from the bottom”, wait until you hear about “the new LOW” for Russian Military
Command, ‘cause it's not what you think.
Lyman is a Ukrainian city of 20,000 people which had been occupied by over 5,000 Russian
troops.
It became a military stronghold one might say.
After the fall of Kharkiv frontlines earlier in September of 2022, Lyman became the first
major settlement that Ukrainians struggled to liberate.
After a few unsuccessful attempts to retake Lyman, Ukrainians took time to regroup.
Before storming Lyman, Ukrainians began an unprecedented HIMARS campaign to destroy weapons
and command centers around Svatove, a major Russian supply hub North East of Lyman.
One HIMARS strike alone completely annihilated the headquarters of 144th motorized rifle
division.
At least four other major targets were hit.
This greatly diminished the Russian logistics and opened a window of opportunity for the
Ukrainian forces.
On September 30th, 2022, Ukrainian Forces resumed their attempt to liberate Lyman.
But instead of storming Lyman head on, the Ukrainian forces took over the smaller Yampil
settlement to the South East, and Drobisheve to the NorthWest.
As a result, Russians inside Lyman were left with only one supply road from the east to
Torske.
Logically speaking, Russians should have left at this point, but instead they were ordered
to stay.
So Ukrainians brought their artillery in range and started the constant bombardment of the
road to Torske.
Still, the Russians didn’t budge.
But why wouldn’t they leave?
You see, a withdrawal from Lyman would terribly upset Russian president Vladimir Putin who
at the time was giving a speech, formally annexing four Ukrainian Regions.
Bizzarily, President Putin was annexing regions that Russia didn’t even fully control.
It's like Elon Musk annexing Mars!
For example, this is Zaporizhya, a Ukrainian city of 750,000 people, which is fully under
Ukrainian control.
But with a stroke of a pen, it was made part of the “Russian Federation”. Yeah!
As a result of this ongoing gongshow in Moscow the Russian army was told to hold Lyman at
all costs, despite the rapidly deteriorating situation.
And deteriorate, it did!
In the evening on September 30th, Ukrainian mobile units took over Stavky to the north,
and more importantly entered Torske to the east of Lyman.
The encirclement was complete.
Both Russians and Ukrainians would call this situation “Kotel”, as it signifies a very
large number of troops trapped inside.
As Ukrainian telegram channels exploded with pictures like these Russian telegram channels
were reporting that there was no panic, and that they had successfully deblockaded Lyman.
But in reality, just after midnight , the Russian forces were ordered to leave Lyman.
But to do so, they needed to travel over 6 miles on a road that was under constant bombardment
by Ukrainians.
Even if they made it through, they would have needed to fight through Ukrainian Forces that
were awaiting them in the Toretsk area.
That was the only way out.
According to Russians, the reserves that approached from the east toward Toretsk, engaged Ukrainian
forces and created a passage for the retreating forces from Lyman.
The unknown number of lucky Russians who managed to get out of Lyman, blew up a bridge over
Gerebets river in order to slow down the Ukrainian Forces.
Of course Russians said that most units were able to escape the encirclement without any
losses.
The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement that they moved their forces out of Lyman
to more beneficial positions in order to prevent encirclement.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian command issued a statement saying that “almost all” Russians
in Lyman were eliminated or captured.
Based on open source intelligence, it is estimated that the number of Russian troops killed was
somewhere between 200 and 1500, with the remainder of the 5000 either successfully retreating
or being captured by Ukrainians.
By Saturday afternoon Ukrainian forces had entered Lyman, and were still fighting whatever
Russians forces were left behind.
Thus 20 days after the Russian defeat in the Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian army failed to
stop Ukrainian advances at the Oskil river and now at Lyman.
As a result of the defeat in Lyman, the western military district general, Alexander Guravlyov
was fired and replaced by Roman Berdnikov.
Everyone was looking for a scapegoat, including the leader of Chechen Republic - Ramzan Don-Don
Kadyrov.
In an unprecedented post, the Chechen leader was directly blaming the Russian Ministry
of Defense for their incompetence.
Even more Kadyrov, was naming names such as Alexander Lapin - a Russian general who received
the “Hero of Russia” award for taking over Lysychansk.
Kadyrov complained that General Lapin was lazy, incompetent and should be demoted and
send to the frontlines to wash his embarrassment with blood.
That's quite a… sensational statement coming from Kadyrov, one of Russia’s top figures,
who happens to have a private army of around 30,000 Chechens.
Impressed with Kadyrov's criticism, Putin promoted Kadyrov to Colonel General, which
is the Same rank as Alexandr Lapin, now that’s a spit in the face at the Russian Ministry
of Defense
By the way, you know who else in Russia has a private army?
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a billionaire Oligarch who also happens to own the Wagner Group which
employs around 10,000 mercenaries.
Sensationally, Yevgeny Prigozhin endorsed Kadyrov's views on General Lapin and the Ministry
of Defense.
This is very significant, because it is the very first time we see cracks starting to
appear among the Russian elites.
We know why Lyman got encircled, but why did the Lyman front fall in the first place?
According to Russian military bloggers the biggest problem was the lack of communication
between Russian forces.
There was no synchronization between regular Russian army and the mobilized “mobiki”
from occupied Luhansk and Donetsk republics.
Soldiers complained that it sometimes took three hours to get artillery support.
That’s an awfully long time!
Because Ukrainians would have changed their positions by then.
Another reason was the “500s” - referring to those who refused to fight and fled strategically
important positions.
And never mind the fact that Russians were not preparing a second line of defenses, that
is, building more fortifications and trenches to fall back on.
But what about the reserves?
Whatever arrived, arrived late, and not in sufficient quantities.
Worse, those reserves were immediately thrown into the fight in a disorganized way, making
them easy targets.
According to one of the top Russian military bloggers, Rybar, most of the western military
district troops simply don’t know how to fight a modern war.
And that has been the case since February 24th, 2022, when the war started.
And this brings us … to mobilization.
You would think that mobilization of 300,000 Russians would overpower Ukrainians.
Some say that the number of mobilized personnel could even reach a million within a year.
And frankly it will make the situation much more difficult for Ukrainians … but it's
not going to be a silver bullet for the Russians either.
First of all, Ukrainians managed to not only stop, but also reverse the advances that Russia’s
professional army had made.
Consequently, the undertrained and under-armed mobilized army would simply not be a match
for the Ukrainians.
It is worth noting, that a fraction of the mobilized soldiers who survive, will become
as good as a professional army, which will pose a threat to the Ukrainian forces.
Second, even president Putin has admitted that mobilization is not going according to
plan.
He commented on how citizens that should not be mobilized, such as those who are old, sick,
or without previous army experience, were getting mobilized incorrectly.
Even the propagandists on Russian National TV are screaming to shoot people who are in
charge of the mobilization.
At least one Russian mobilized man did just that, but we won’t show you the footage.
Third, while on TV they show mobilized men getting training and living in decent conditions,
the reality is quite different.
Dozens of videos have surfaced showing the mobilized men simply dumped at fields, where
they get drunk by the bonfires.
Fourth is the equipment problem.
Forget about the lack of weapons, tanks and so on.
They don’t even have enough uniforms!
Apparently the large stockpile of 1.5 million Russian uniforms existed only on paper.
There is at least one Russian soldier who was caught wearing Ukrainian forces underwear!
Finally, it's about quality over quantity.
As one Ukrainian reconnaissance officer explained, going behind enemy lines on a surveillance
mission and coming back alive is very different from going to enemy territory and accomplishing
a mission and coming back alive.
Imagine all those “office staff” who just stare at their computer screen, you know,
pretending to work!
Giving them a gun doesn’t change their work ethics!
Point being that Ukrainians are much more motivated than Russians to win this war.
So no matter how many soldiers Russia has, if they can’t accomplish their tasks, they
are not of much utility.
There are countless reports of Russian soldiers simply fleeing when Ukrainians open fire upon
them.
For example, Russians fled Borova in the Kharkiv Region on October 2nd, without a fight when
Ukrainians showed up.
Another example happened in the Kherson region where the entire frontline collapsed in a
matter of hours, when some Russian soldiers left without a fight, leading others no other
choice … but to leave as well.
Now to the low point of Russian Military Command.
There are at least three different videos showing confrontations of “mobiki” with
the Russian soldiers, because the mobiki were purposefully left behind in Lyman.
As it turned out, when the Russian Command issued an order to retreat, they were specifically
instructed to not tell “mobiki” that the Russian army is leaving.
They wanted mobiki to stay behind and be sacrificed, so the Russian soldiers could have a chance
to leave.
This order turned mobiki into cannon fodders, which explains why they were so pissed.
And remember that since the September 30th declaration of annexation, mobilized forces
from Luhansk and Donetsk are now considered Russians.
They are one country and one nation with Russia, as proclaimed in Moscow during the celebrations!
But clearly, some Russians are … more Russian than others.
For example, this footage was recorded by the 193 survivors of the 222nd Battalion from
Luhansk republic.
As we mentioned earlier, they were left behind, but made it out from Lyman with very heavy
losses.
This is all the equipment they had left.
They were not happy.
Even Though they made it out alive, Russians didn’t provide them with medical care or
food.
Instead their weapons were taken away and they were told not to do anything stupid … or
they will be labeled as terrorists and deserters.
Since the fall of Lyman, the Russian front in the Luhansk region has not stabilized,
especially as Ukrainians are pushing toward Svatove and Kreminna.
Meanwhile on the western bank of the Dnipro river, Ukrainians managed to liberate the
northern part of the Kherson region, as yet again, Russians were simply fleeing.
It appears that President Putin wants a ceasefire so he can rebuild his army.
He urged Ukrainians during his annexation speech for peace talks.
To which president Zelensky replied, he is open for negotiations with Russians, but only
with a different president, not Putin.
Meanwhile Kadyrov urged the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and he got a response
from Elon Musk, who took a break from his on-and-off offer to buy twitter, and urged
Ukrainians for peace talks and the surrender of Crimea.
Finally, the Russian parliament voted in consensus to annex the Ukrainian territories, however
they didn’t specify within which borders, citing the need to consult with people in
the annexed regions.
And as for Russians using nukes, simply put, it’s not a path to victory …