Title: El Niño 2024: What Lies Ahead for our Earth?
Not so long ago, in
the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean, there were fishermen who spent their lives on the waters,
catching fish and observing the rhythms of the sea. One day, they noticed something unusual - the
water temperature was warmer than usual and there was something strange happening in the currents.
This was something they had never seen before. As they shared their observations with others,
they began to notice a pattern. This unusual event would happen every year around Christmas
time. They called it "El Niño," which means "The Little Boy" or "Christ Child" in Spanish.
They believed that this phenomenon was something God would send, as it brought warmth to the
cold waters during the winter months. As time went by, scientists began to
study this phenomenon and discovered that El Niño was part of a larger cycle of oceanic and
atmospheric changes that had far-reaching effects on weather patterns around the world. El Niño and
Climate Change will be a very dangerous mix for temperatures on Earth in the next five years,
the World Meteorological Organization stated two weeks ago. There's still no certainty, but it's
now increasingly likely that global temperatures will reach record highs in the next five years,
fueled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and El Nino. This will have far-reaching repercussions
for health, food safety, water management, and the environment, and this could happen as
soon as 2024. We might want to be prepared. Follow me in this video to get to know more
about it! ---
Anchovies & El Niño Everything started with anchovies.
Before they wind up on a pizza or in a tin can with a rollaway lid, anchovies are in the ocean.
Colorful Peruvian boats in the 60s used to return to shore each day heavy with
thousands of anchovies. This was a blessing for the people living
in the dry climate along the coast of Peru and Ecuador who found it tough
to farm the land. These anchovies were a vital source of food and income for them.
But one day in 1972, the fishermen returned with their nets empty, and everyone was disappointed.
The seabirds, who usually feasted on the anchovies, were starving to death. The fishermen
noticed something strange. The water was warmer than usual, and other types of fish had appeared,
but there were no anchovies. The skies were dark and cloudy, and the air was humid instead of dry.
These happenings, which would occur every few years, were given a name by the people there - El
Niño. Today we know El Niño is an essential part of a weather phenomenon called El Niño Southern
Oscillation or ENSO. And it doesn't just impact the fish in Peru, it affects the entire planet.
Understanding why the anchovies were dying is really useful to understand what El Niño
actually is, and the impact it has on Earth. Imagine being a little anchovy swimming in the
ocean off the coast of Peru. Life is good because the water is cold
and rich in nutrients. This is thanks to a process called upwelling, which is like an
elevator for water from the depths of the sea. You see, along the west coast of South America,
winds blow north and push the surface water away from the coast. This creates a space
for the nutrient-rich deep water to rise up and feed the hungry phytoplankton. And where there's
phytoplankton, there's zooplankton, and where there's zooplankton, there's food for anchovies!
But sometimes, something called El Niño happens. This is like a temper tantrum in the ocean caused
by changes in the wind patterns. When El Niño hits, upwelling slows down and the anchovies
get confused, like a lost fish in a sea of uncertainty. Fishermen try to catch them in
the usual places, but the fish are nowhere to be found. This means there's less fish to eat,
which is bad news for us humans who like to enjoy a good anchovy pizza or Caesar salad.
Understanding why anchovies die off during El Niño is important because it helps us understand
the bigger picture of how our planet works. Just like how a small change in the wind can
affect the ocean, small changes in one part of the world can have big impacts elsewhere.
It's like a game of Jenga, where one block pulled out can bring the whole tower tumbling down.
So let's be mindful of our actions and their effects on the world around us.
--- El Niño and Climate Change in 2024
It’s easy now to draw some conclusions about what El Niño actually is.
It is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important
consequences for weather around the globe. This phenomenon is characterized by unusually warm
ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The warming of the ocean causes disastrous floods
and can also lead to devastating bushfires, as seen in Australia. The occurrence of El
Niño is closely monitored as it is essential for predicting short-term climate variations.
The bushfires in Australia during the Black Summer of 2019-2020 were a result of weak El
Niño conditions, combined with cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean.
These conditions promote drier conditions in the southern and
eastern parts of the country and often, but not always, coincide with El Niño.
This said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recently released a bold and concerning
update about our planet's future. With the combination of El Niño and human-induced
climate change, global temperatures will likely hit record-high levels within the next five years.
The WMO report states that there is a 66% chance that global temperatures will be at least 1.5°C
higher than pre-industrial levels for one year between 2023 and 2027. Additionally,
there is a 98% chance that at least one of those five years will be the hottest on record. It is
reasonable to think this will happen in 2024. Although El Niño occurs naturally, it is expected
to increase global temperatures in the coming months, leading to unpredictable outcomes for
health, food safety, water management, and the environment. According to Petteri Taalas,
WMO Secretary General, we must prepare ourselves for the repercussions of this dangerous mix.
Moreover, compared to the 1991-2020 average, Arctic warming is predicted to be three times
greater than the anticipated global anomaly over the next five extended Northern Hemisphere
winters. Additionally, the report suggests that precipitation patterns will shift,
with increased rainfall in certain areas and decreased rainfall in others.
The impact of human-induced greenhouse gases is also causing higher acidity levels in oceans,
melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather patterns.
The Paris Agreement emphasizes the need for all nations to significantly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions to prevent the planet from warming beyond 2°C, with further efforts to limit the
increase to 1.5°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that climate-related risks
will be higher if global warming exceeds 1.5°C, requiring us to act fast to reduce these harmful
impacts. We must prioritize climate action to ensure a sustainable future for our planet.
However, it's not all doom and gloom.
El Niño may be dangerous, but he's not the only player in the game. There's also La Nina, which is
characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. La Nina brings the
opposite effects of El Niño, and it can lead to increased rainfall in drought-prone regions.
In conclusion, while El Niño may cause some damage, it's not all bad news. We can anticipate
its occurrence and prepare for its consequences. In the same vein, La Nina brings relief from
drought conditions and can be a welcome respite to communities affected by El Niño. We should
approach these weather phenomena with caution and respect, but we need not be overly alarmed.
---
Technical Explanation of El Niño To truly grasp the origins of El Niño, one must
first take a closer look at the normal state of the Pacific Ocean affected by ENSO. The trade-wind
system in this region, which is responsible for prevailing winds, plays a crucial role in
the formation of El Niño. Near the equator, is a zone of low pressure referred to as the
doldrums. In contrast, the primary high-pressure systems found 30 degrees north and south of the
equator are called the horse latitudes. Due to uneven heating, the sun warms up the tropical
regions of the Western Pacific, causing the air in these areas to rise into the atmosphere.
As this hot air moves towards the doldrums, it is deflected westward when it reaches the equator,
shaped by the Coriolis effect. The Coriolis force is an additional acceleration acting
on the motion of bodies in a rotating system, like the Earth. This plays an essential role in
determining the direction of the trade winds. As a result of the Coriolis effect, the northeast,
and southeast trade winds are formed, named for their point of origin. These winds combine to
create the normal trade wind system, which sweeps air westward along the equator of the Pacific.
These winds also create gyres, vast ocean-spanning currents carrying surface water westwards,
which are maintained by the prevailing winds. This results in a change in the depth of the water.
As the surface water moves west, it is replaced by cooler subsurface water, referred to as upwelling.
As a result, the sea level in the eastern Pacific along the equator is typically half a meter lower
than in the western Pacific, where warm surface water has gathered into a warm pool. The water
temperatures in the west are often eight degrees Celsius higher than those in the east around South
America due to the upwelling of these cooler subsurface waters. The prevailing winds also
cause high levels of rainfall over Indonesia and Southeast Asia due to the moisture of the winds as
they traverse the Pacific. During El Niño, this entire system undergoes a transformation that
impacts the environment on a global scale.
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--- Different Areas Affected by El Niño
If you wonder how El Niño can affect your area, here’s a nice overview.
In the vast expanse of South America, El Niño reigns supreme, throwing caution to the wind
and wreaking havoc with the weather patterns of the continent. The western coast of South
America, which is usually dry and desolate, experiences unusually high levels of rainfall,
leading to floods of catastrophic proportions. This phenomenon is caused due to the warming of
the surface waters in the Pacific, which leads to a decrease in the oxygen levels in the sea.
The resulting scarcity of fish has severe economic implications, particularly in Peru and Ecuador.
The eastern region of South America, encompassing countries like Brazil and Argentina, witnesses
a surge in atmospheric humidity during summers. The winters, on the other hand, are mild and lack
the usual snowfall associated with the season. In North America, El Niño operates differently,
depending upon the latitude. The Caribbean and the southern parts of the USA are pelted with heavy
showers, causing utter chaos on some occasions. As one moves northwards, from Oregon to Alaska,
the warming of the surface water leads to milder winters and springs, with higher temperatures.
Moving on to Australia and southern Polynesia, El Niño triggers drought-like conditions, drastically
reducing rainfall levels. Some archipelagos, like Tahiti and Hawaii, witness an increase in tropical
cyclones, triggered by El Niño. Japan and Korea are enveloped in a blanket of warmth, leading to
sultry summers and mild winters. However, Southern Asia, stretching from Indonesia to India, isn't as
lucky, as the temperature increase is accompanied by a significant decrease in rainfall, leading
to severe droughts that can last for years. In Africa, El Niño's impact is most felt in
the southeastern portion of the continent, which is ravaged by droughts and higher temperatures.
However, the Horn of Africa witnesses a spike in rainfall. In Europe, the effects of El Niño
are yet to be fully understood. They are less severe and have a lighter impact.
--- El Niño changes the rotation of the Earth
So we kinda understand what El Niño is and how it acts on a global scale. But perhaps one of the
most interesting effects it has on the Earth is to change its rotation rate. Here’s how it does.
Think of the Earth as a figure skater spinning on the ice. As the skater spins, they bring their
arms closer to their body, which causes them to spin faster. This is because the conservation of
angular momentum requires that the skater's rate of rotation increase as they decrease their arm
radius. Similarly, during an El Niño, the earth's atmosphere experiences changes in wind patterns,
which result in a redistribution of mass around the planet. In order to conserve
total angular momentum, the Earth's rotation rate decreases to compensate for these changes.
This may seem like a small change, but even a small adjustment in the Earth's rotation can have
big consequences, such as altering weather patterns and causing changes in sea level.
So, just like a figure skater, the Earth can adjust its rotation rate to accommodate changes
in the atmosphere. ---
--- Outro
Today, we continue to monitor and study El Niño as a way of predicting global weather patterns
and understanding the effects of climate change on our planet. So next time you order a pizza with
anchovies or open a tin can with rollaway lids, remember the story of how the lives
of anchovies and people in Peru are closely linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
--- Hey! This video ends here! Thanks for
watching. What are your thoughts about El Niño? Let us know in the comments below! See you soon!