A major mobilization is right around the corner, and Russia has stepped up its bombing campaign
of Ukraine in recent weeks.
Putin seems to be confident in his odds of winning the war this year.
But the reality might be completly different.
Because western intelligence on the Russian army seems to not put the odds in Putin’s
favour.
On the surface, Russia seems to have the advantage in any military showdown.
They have a total of three million personnel, both active and reserve, more than twice Ukraine’s
numbers.
While Ukraine’s annual military budget is around ten billion dollars, Russia spends
an average of 65 billion dollars per year on its military.
And of course, Russia also has nuclear weapons at its disposal while Ukraine gave up its
arsenal in the years after the fall of the Soviet Union.
It seems like a classic David vs. Goliath story - which makes it all the more impressive
that Ukraine has kept up the fight this long.
But appearances can be deceiving.
Russia made some key mistakes at the very start of the war.
Ukraine is technically a non-aligned nation, although it’s drifting closer and closer
to the European Union and NATO.
When Russia initially invaded, it made many bold statements about overrunning its neighbor
- including threats towards NATO for being on its border.
That largely ended any debate about this being an internal Russian issue like Putin claimed,
and rallied much of the rest of the world to Ukraine’s defense.
This means Russia isn’t just going up against Ukraine anymore.
While there technically aren’t any foreign armies aiding Ukraine - for good reason, since
Putin has made it clear he would consider this an act of war and retaliate against NATO
- the west has supplied a large amount of equipment and training to Ukraine.
Most of the gear came from NATO aligned countries, with the lion’s share coming from the United
States, and the flow of supplies is still going despite some grumbles about how much
it costs.
This isn’t surprising as the total foreign aid the US supplied, including military and
humanitarian support, has come to over 150 billion dollars in the first year of the war
alone!
And most of that is being put to good use.
Around a third of that aid, 48 billion dollars, has come in the form of direct military assistance.
This is both weapons shipments, and money used to buy weapons systems from third parties.
More than half of this military funding comes from the United States, a vastly disproportionate
amount.
But while this seems surprising, there is a good reason for it - Putin has very little
leverage over the United States.
While Putin’s threats of attacking European nations is as unlikely as him winning the
war, he does have one big card to play - energy supplies.
With winter underway, and much of Europe being supplied by Russian gas and oil, some governments
have been hesitant to back Ukraine in fear of going cold during the winter.
The United States, however, has no such concerns.
The United States has one big advantage in any geopolitical conflict - it’s always
a long way away from the front lines.
It only has two bordering nations - both allies without militaries that could threaten it.
None of its neighbors in the Caribbean or South America are considered a threat as well
- at least not since the Soviet Union’s plan to place nuclear missiles in Cuba was
stopped in its tracks.
It’s also largely energy-independent and either produces most of its own oil or gets
it from allies including Canada and Saudi Arabia.
The only way to target the US is with a much more direct military operation - and Putin
can ask Japan how that worked out.
And the same goes for Ukraine’s second-biggest supplier.
The United Kingdom provided almost four billion dollars in military assistance to Ukraine
over the last year, including some of its most advanced anti-aircraft missiles.
Being an island, the United Kingdom has more options for energy supplies, and is far less
dependent on Russia than mainland European nations.
The European Union, which Britain left a few years back, has provided over three billion
in military aid total - which illustrates the delicate line they’re trying to walk.
The same goes for countries including Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic - all of which
have memories of being under the Soviet boot.
But what has that actually bought?
To put it simply…a lot!
The most important factor is that Kyiv is simply able to restock its military as needed.
The country has largely been in a constant state of war for a year, and they’ve had
to use most of their military stockpile to keep Russia at bay.
The military aid given to Ukraine has included ammunition, guns, body armor, and field supplies
- all of which are key to keeping their army in fighting condition.
But that’s just the start.
The Ukrainian army had limited capabilities before the war began, but now they’re equipped
with some of the most advanced military technology in the world and are ready to take the fight
to Putin.
And one particular piece of equipment has been a game-changer.
Maybe the most advanced multiple rocket launcher in US history, the HIMARS is a truck-mounted
system that is very maneuverable and has a top-tier radar system that allows it to shoot
at almost anything Russian has to offer.
It can carry either six small rockets or one heavy-duty missile.
Produced by Lockheed Martin, it has played a key role in turning the tide of the war
and helping neutralize Russia’s air barrages and commander positions.
While Ukraine only has a few right now, the delivery of more HIMARS systems - along with
Patriot missiles - is one of Ukraine’s top priorities for future US aid.
This has evened the odds - but why isn’t Russia requesting aid from its allies too?
This is where Russia’s big weakness in the war comes in - they’ve become an international
pariah, and few countries have any interest in supplying them with weapons or even basic
supplies.
Their only direct supporters in the war are fellow outlaw nations including North Korea,
Iran, Venezuela, Syria, and Putin’s proxy state in Belarus - none of which have massive
militaries so even basic supplies are scarce.
North Korea has offered some supplies, and Iran is quickly becoming Russia’s top military
supplier - including a healthy stream of drones - but they can only do so much for Russia’s
military efforts.
But what about Russia’s fellow great power?
China is in an unusual place when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
They initially made bold statements in support of Russia, back when it looked like the war
would be concluded within a week.
Altough supportis waning, China has a vested interest in seeing Russia succeed - this would
be the most significant invasion and conquest in the post-Cold War era world, and if the
international community accepted this as reality, it would make China much more confident in
its ability to conquer and subjugate the island nation of Taiwan with little opposition.
But reality got in the way.
While Xi and Putin seemed to be in sync in the early days of the war, the mighty Russian
bear quickly turned into a scraggly cub on the battlefield.
China did not want to hitch itself to a losing fight, so suddenly the Chinese leadership
started being much more cagey about the war.
Military aid to Russia slowed down, and now Russia has no chance of getting its hands
on China’s most advanced military technology.
So while Russia might have the more impressive military budget, that’s largely where it
stops for them - while Ukraine is quickly finding that it can rely on a near-bottomless
supply of aid from the many countries pulling for it.
So what’s the next move?
Right now, Western military aid has created a stalemate, with Ukraine unable to fully
expel Russia from their territory without escalating the war.
Ukraine has had enormous success in targeting Russian military leaders and sunk several
of their top ships, but Russia’s military strategy has largely been to focus in on specific
cities and conquer them by sheer overwhelming force - as seen in the city of Mariupol, which
was essentially destroyed early in the war.
Even with the numbers advantage, Putin has seen many of its early conquests, like Kherson,
liberated by the Ukrainian army.
But trouble may be brewing.
Several members in the now divided House of Congress have questioned continued aid to
Ukraine.
Reasons vary from “it’s too much money”, to “we could get pulled into the war”,
to rambling conspiracy theories.
While President Joe Biden and the Senate leadership both strongly favor continuing to aid Ukraine
or even raising the aid is sending over, there could be a battle to get continued funding.
And Putin may be changing his own tactics in response.
It’s clear that Russia can’t keep up with the influx of Western military support that’s
being sent to Ukraine - especially as the Russian army is quickly being worn down.
Reports are Russia is low on ammunition, body armor - and of course, soldiers, as many of
them are being wiped out in combat.
Putin has already had to resort to a draft once, and rumors are a second mobilization
is coming.
But insanity is doing the same thing multiple times and expecting a different result, so
Putin has also found another potential opening.
Propaganda.
If you listen to Putin in the early days of the war, his rationales talk a lot about “De-Nazifying”
Ukraine and restoring Russia’s historic territory.
This was pretty quickly called out as absurd - the biggest reason being that Ukraine’s
President, Volodomyr Zelenskyy, is one of only two current Jewish heads of state in
the world and the only one outside of Jewish-majority Israel!
Not exactly the guy you hire for a stealth Nazi regime.
So instead, Putin has started portraying himself as the underdog!
He claims that he’s fighting an expansion of NATO and the west on Russia’s borders,
hoping to rally countries opposed to the US to his defense.
But unless he can get China to reverse course, the odds are this won’t make much of a difference.
Of course, there’s also the culture war option.
Listening to Putin’s speeches now, he kind of sounds a little like a talk radio host.
He often talks about the decadence and immorality of the west, and accuses America and Ukraine
of representing godless radicals who want to undermine Russia’s culture.
This seems like a silly reason to start a war - but the odds are this is meant for foreign
consumption.
If he can make himself the face of the global right wing and portray Zelenskyy as the opposition,
American Republicans and right-wing leadership in countries like Italy might start leaning
towards shutting down aid to Ukraine.
But will any of this work?
Right now, the war is at a standstill - partially because of winter settling in.
But while Putin has changed his tactics, it will be very hard for him to overcome the
western support being sent to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy has most of the world rallying behind him, ready to support the Ukrainian army with
extensive aid and some of the best military technology in the world.
And Putin…has Iranian drones and a whole lot of confused draftees.
Want to know more about the current state of the war?
Check out “Why Putin is Scared of US Patriot Missiles in Ukraine”, or watch “Why Russia’s
Airforce is Grounded During War With Ukraine” for another major Russian weak spot.