In June 2023, Belarus came to International attention when its leader Alexander Lukashenko
offered sanctuary to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the disgraced head of the mutinous Wagner Group.
Coming soon after Russia moved nuclear weapons to the country,
this has cast light on the close relationship between Moscow and Minsk.
But while some have called Belarus a vassal state, things aren't quite as they seem.
While the two countries are indeed closely intertwined,
the relationship is strange and complex.
So, how exactly should we understand their ties?
And is Belarus now under Russia's control?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel ,my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
There was a time when the international system was a very different place.
Instead of equal sovereign states,
it comprised a multitude of entities often with complex relations with each other.
As well as powerful religious authorities, it included empires, kingdoms, principalities,
sultanates, city-states, colonies, protectorates, and vassal states - territories with an allegiance
to another entity and existing at the will and permission of that dominant partner.
However, the modern international system is very different.
It's built on the idea of sovereign states with defined borders, settled populations,
a capacity for governance, and the ability to enter international relations with one another.
Underpinning this is independence.
It's not just that states should be able to govern their territory,
but they should do it free from direct outside control.
But there are instances where this Independence is called into question.
One of the most interesting current examples is Belarus.
Over recent decades, it's had an exceptionally close relationship with neighbouring Russia - to
the point that many question whether it can still be regarded as genuinely independent.
But is this an accurate assessment?
The Republic of Belarus lies in Eastern Europe.
Landlocked, to its south it borders Ukraine.
And to its west and northwest of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Russia lies along its eastern border.
At around 200 000 square kilometres or 80 000 square miles, it's the world's
84th largest country, and its population stands at about nine and a half million.
By contrast the Russian Federation neighbours 14 countries and at 17
million square kilometres, or six and a half million square miles,
is the world's largest state and over 80 times the size of Belarus.
Similarly, with approximately 145 million inhabitants,
its population is around 15 times larger than its neighbour.
The two countries share extremely close ethnolinguistic and cultural bonds.
While their languages are very similar
most Belarusians in fact speak Russian as their first language.
And just as most Belarusians are Orthodox Christian, like the Russians,
the Belarusian Church comes under the authority of the Russian Orthodox Church.
However, despite the links, claims by Russia that Belarusians,
like Ukrainians, are part of the broader Russian nation are fiercely disputed by many Belarusians,
who see themselves as having a distinct identity.
The area that now makes up Belarus has a long history stretching back over two millennia.
Having been divided between various kingdoms and
principalities, it eventually came under Lithuanian and Polish control.
But our story really begins in the last quarter of the 18th century,
when the territory came under Russian imperial rule.
This lasted until the First World War when Germany invaded it.
In 1920, it became the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic and two years later,
it became one of the four founding republics of the Soviet Union.
Although Nazi Germany occupied Belarus during the Second World War,
it was reintegrated into the Soviet Union in 1944.
This lasted until the Soviet Union collapsed almost half a century later.
On 25 August 1991, Belarus declared independence, followed by Russia four months later.
Following the breakup of the USSR,
Belarus and Russia maintained a good relationship as separate sovereign states.
This was underpinned by Belarus's decision to become a member of the
Russian-led Commonwealth of independent States.
At its height, this brought together 12 of the 15 republics of the former Soviet Union.
However, the relationship would change in
1994 when Belarus elected a new president Alexander Lukashenko.
A former Soviet official who wanted to reorient the country back to the
Communist command economy, he began to build a strong
relationship with neighbouring Russia - the country's leading economic partner.
This would in turn lead to closer political ties.
The first step towards this came on 2 April 1996,
when the two countries established the Commonwealth of Russia and Belarus.
This was followed a year later by a treaty formally
establishing a union between the two countries.
And in December 1998, they signed a further package of agreements.
But the most significant step came on 8 December 1999 when they signed
a treaty creating what was called the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
Built on the vision of unifying the two peoples in a single economic space with
a single legal system and coordinated social policy, Moscow and Minsk also
agreed to develop a coordinated foreign and defence policy - including the possibility
of a single membership of international bodies, including the United Nations.
All this would also be underpinned by a range of joint institutions,
including a Supreme State Council with the two leaders; a council of ministers;
a joint parliament; and a joint supreme court.
Up until this point, Lukashenko had been the driving force behind the political union.
Having signed the agreements when Boris Yeltsin was President of Russia,
the Belarusian leader saw himself as the natural successor to his ailing Russian counterpart.
However, this all changed on 31 December 1999,
when Yeltsin surprised the World by announcing that he was standing
down and had appointed Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, as his successor.
Over the next few years, as Putin consolidated his position, it not only became clear that
Lukashenko stood little to no chance at becoming the leader of a united country,
but his position at home also appeared to be at risk from the Russian president.
This came to the fore in 2007 when Lukashenko accused Russia of seeking to absorb Belarus.
As a result, the relationship between Moscow and Minsk became increasingly strained.
While Belarus had to remain close to Russia, its primary economic partner and a key Energy
provider, Lukashenko nevertheless steadily took Belarus in a more independent direction,
actively courting the European Union and the United States.
And on several significant foreign policy issues,
Belarus began to consciously diverge from Moscow - even on critical issues of importance to Russia.
For example, Minsk refused to follow Moscow's lead and recognise the independence of the
Georgian Breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
By the second decade of the new millennium, the Minsk-Moscow relationship was visibly tense.
While the Union State remained on the table,
it was now presented as little more than an international organisation.
While some elements had been implemented, such as the State Secretary of the Union,
many others, including the Parliament and Supreme Court, hadn't been set up.
Meanwhile, Putin was becoming increasingly frustrated at Lukashenko's behaviour,
especially as Belarus still relied on Russia for economic support.
All this would, however,
change in August 2020 when Belarus went to the polls for presidential elections.
After a quarter of a century in power, Lukashenko had earned a reputation
as a highly autocratic leader at the helm of a brutally repressive regime.
But despite considerable evidence showing strong support for an
opposition candidate, he again claimed victory.
As mass protests erupted over the following months,
there appeared to be a distinct possibility that Lukashenko would be overthrown.
And it was at this point that he was forced to ask for help from Moscow.
Over the following months, Lukashenko put down the growing opposition to his rule.
Having now propped up the regime, Russia steadily increased its control
over the country by extending its economic, political, social, and even military influence.
As a result, it now appeared that Lukashenko, after long trying to keep
his distance from Moscow, was firmly in its debt and under its control.
But is this really the case?
Of course, the war in Ukraine has been a crucial factor in the story.
From the start, Minsk appeared complicit in the attack - with Russian forces,
which had been conducting exercises in the country,
using Belarus as a launch pad for their efforts to seize the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
However, after that, the picture becomes a little more confusing.
While Belarus has stood solidly behind Moscow politically and diplomatically - voting with it
in the UN - it seemingly stood back militarily, even as Russia has faced growing difficulties.
But while this may be interpreted as a sign that Minsk wishes to distance
itself from the war and from Moscow, there may also be a political answer.
The available evidence suggests that the war is extremely unpopular in Belarus.
Given societal opposition to the regime, there may be a fear that
direct involvement could spark renewed protests.
This is also given credence by the fact that while Belarusian troops haven't yet
fought in Ukraine, they are still working extremely closely with Russian forces.
More to the point, in other ways, we've seen Belarus become a focal
point for the escalation of the broader strategic environment of the conflict.
In June 2023, Moscow announced that it was moving nuclear weapons to the country;
the first deployment of Russian nuclear arms to
the territory of another state since the end of the Cold War.
But as if to emphasise his independence, Lukashenko now
insists that he in fact has a veto over whether those weapons will ever be used.
But there are other factors that raise interesting questions about the relationship.
For example, Lukashenko's mediation to end the apparent mutiny by the Wagner
Military Group - an intervention that saw Belarus take in the group's leader.
But while Lukashenko proclaimed it a triumph and emphasised that it showed his importance and
Independence, the whole story has been mired in mystery; especially as Lukashenko has been forced
to admit that Prigozhin is not even in Belarus at the moment, but instead is back in Russia.
So, is Belarus a vassal state of Moscow?
While Lukashenko insists that he is still independent,
it's clear that he's effectively lost his strategic and political autonomy.
Meanwhile, under sanctions, Belarus has become increasingly reliant on Russia economically.
But it's also clear that it's been done reluctantly.
While many have pointed to the close ties between the countries,
and the plan for unification, the reality has been that Lukashenko
has always been far more opposed to the merger than it may seem on the surface.
All this raises the question of how things may develop from here.
One way or another it now seems that Belarus's fate depends on Putin and the war in Ukraine.
If the Russian leader falls. Lukashenko may also see his regime collapse soon afterwards.
Equally, however, it's been suggested that if Putin does lose the war in Ukraine he
may well see the completion of the Union State as his last chance to salvage his leadership.
At this point, Belarus will cease to be a vassal state
and will instead become part of the Russian state.
Ultimately, an independent Belarus and an independent
Lukashenko appear increasingly incompatible.
I hope you found that helpful.
If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.