The question of the year is this. Could Europe survive without Russian gas? The
answer to this question can be found in a piece of news that has gone almost unnoticed
but is very important. Just a day before Putin entered Ukraine, he had this meeting.
(Russian, Azerbaijani presidents to meet in Moscow on Tuesday. AA.com.tr)
I know; many of you will be thinking, what does the President of Azerbaijan have to do
with this story? Well, a lot. In today's video we are going to tell you about two countries
that until now were practically unknown but are likely to be talked about a lot in the future.
But let's go back to the question at the beginning: can Europe really stop buying
natural gas from Russia? By now, I think you all know that Europe needs Russian gas to survive.
More than 40% of the natural gas consumed in the entire European Union comes from Russia.
And, with or without war in Ukraine, everything indicates that the Kremlin wants to keep selling.
In fact, at the time of making this video, with Russian tanks on the streets of Kiev, Gazprom
pipelines were still pumping gas to the European Union. And I know what you're all thinking right
now, what economic sanctions can we put on Russia if we keep buying gas from them?
As long as Europe remains the main buyer, the Russian economy will continue to receive money.
In other words, European politicians can continue to make speeches worthy
of Churchill himself. But these are all cheap slogans if we continue to finance
Putin's wars. And it is precisely the hot air that has brought us to this situation.
In fact, since the war broke out in Ukraine, dependence on Russia has only
increased. And I know what some of you are thinking: Let's make the sacrifice! Let's
stop buying gas from Russia. If necessary, we’ll spend the rest of the winter without heating.
The truth is that we use natural gas for everything:
industry, agriculture, electricity production! So come on! To play
the martyr and say that we can live without natural gas today is.... More cheap slogans!
And I think that, by now, we are all a bit fed up with cheap slogans,
aren't we? So the question we are asking today is: Could Europe really stop depending on Russian gas,
and is there any alternative to the current European energy policy?
Today we are going to answer these questions but first.... Many of you have asked us if there is
a way to help Ukraine in this war. And the truth is that there is: the National Bank of Ukraine is
accepting donations from all over the world to support the resistance and the Ukrainian armed
forces. This is not an advertising plug, nobody is paying us to say this and it is
merely informative. If you are interested, you can find the link in the description.
And now, let's take a look at some history.
(PACT WITH THE DEVIL)
I am going to say it very clearly: part of what is happening now in Ukraine is
due to Germany's energy policy. I know what I just said is controversial. But the data
is there: up to the time of making this video,
Germany has been blocking the shipment of armaments to Ukraine. Listen up.
(Germany OKs weapons for Ukraine in major shift on military aid
Until Saturday, Germany had a longstanding practice of
blocking lethal weapons from being sent to conflict zones. Politico)
In any case, in any discussion about Russia,
Germany is always the country closest to the Kremlin. And why, you may ask? Quite simply:
at the end of a long road of cheap slogans is the most cynical realpolitik.
Let me explain: Germany is the largest energy consumer in Europe. This makes
sense if we take into account that it is the largest economy in the entire
European Union. The cheap slogans. Germany does not want nuclear. Nor
does it want coal. Nor does it want oil. And green energies are not insufficient.
There is no way to store energy today. Yes, it's true, there are experimental technologies for
storing energy. But, for the time being, they are still in the laboratory. That leaves gas.
And that is why both Germany and Europe are consuming more gas than ever before.
In 1990, they produced 40,000 gigawatts of power by gas. By 2020,
they were producing more than 94,000 gigawatts.
It is true that, in relative terms, gas represents a smaller percentage of the mix.
But, in absolute terms, Europeans are buying more and more gas, and Russia is their main supplier.
Think of it this way,
politically speaking, Russian gas is the Good, Nice and Cheap energy option:
Good because it pollutes less than coal. Nice because it provides energy whenever we
need it. And cheap because it comes from Russian pipelines, which are nearby and have good prices.
Does it mean making a pact with the devil? Yes. But,
until now... Who cared? We have seen demonstrations against Climate
Change and nuclear energy but… Who was demonstrating against Putin? Hardly anyone.
Let's put it bluntly: prior to February 2022, Putin and a war in Ukraine was something that
only those of you who watch VisualPolitik and a handful of others worried about.
No one in Germany was losing elections for having a close relationship with Putin.
In fact, we've all seen RAUL GONZALEZ,
playing soccer for SCHALKE in a GAZPROM jersey and no one thought it was bad.
And all this explains why, instead of looking for other gas suppliers,
Germany has been looking for ways to buy even more gas from Russia... without it having to go
through Ukraine, unfair? Yes. But then again, how many of you have heard of Nord Stream 2?
And that's how we get to February 2022.
What happens now? Well, check it out.
(A DEBT TO THE DEVIL)
The first consequence of the war with Ukraine is that Nord Stream 2 has been paralyzed until
further notice. This was not an easy decision for Germany, but there was no other choice.
For the time being, Russia continues to sell gas to Europe via Ukraine. The question is,
until when and under what conditions? Pay attention to what the deputy chairman of
the Security Council of Russia, DIMITRY MEDVEDEV said on Twitter.
(German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the
Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very
soon going to pay €2,000 for 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas! – Dimitry Medvedev,
deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia)
The question is no longer whether we want to continue to depend on Russia. The question
is how do we reduce that 40% of gas we buy from Russia, and how can we do it as soon as possible?
At the moment, the United States has already sent 60 LNG tankers with liquefied natural
gas. Qatar has said it would be willing to sell some gas if Russia cuts off
supplies. And you’re probably thinking, problem solved? Not at all. Not at all.
Firstly, it is hard to imagine that the United States or Qatar could supply all the gas that
comes from Russia. Liquefied Natural Gas is much more expensive than gas arriving by pipeline.
If, all of a sudden, the big European industries had to pay for gas at
Asian prices... we would be talking about a gigantic economic crisis.
And the question is, what can be done – do we go back to building nuclear reactors? It
doesn't seem very feasible! It takes almost 10 years to build a nuclear reactor. Not to
mention the lack of political will. Do we expect that renewable energies can be stored cheaply?
Ahem! Ahem, what have I told you about cheap slogans? Are we really going to
make decisions based on the promise that one day, someone will discover a
new technology that will change everything? And so… what are our options? Well, check it out.
(NEW DEVILS TO MAKE PACTS WITH) We said it at the beginning:
the era of cheap slogans is over. So let's call a spade a spade: Europe has no choice but to make
pacts with new devils. But think of it this way: it is better to depend on several devils than on
just one. So the first devil in our story is this gentleman you see on the screen.
Meet ILHAM ALIYYEV, the president of Azerbaijan. I know: Azerbaijan
is one of those countries you realize exists thanks to the Eurovision Song Contest.And,
believe me, his is a savage, corrupt dictatorship, not without its geopolitical problems. If not,
just ask the Armenians. And this is where the news story from the beginning of this video fits in.
(Russian, Azerbaijani presidents to meet in Moscow on Tuesday. AA.com.tr)
This meeting took place two days before the invasion of Ukraine. Both Putin and Aliyev
declared eternal love, military cooperation and understanding of all kinds. The question is,
is Azerbaijan really Russia's best ally? Well, the truth is that it is not.
First of all, they compete with Moscow for selling gas. But not only that! Azerbaijan's
main supporter is? Turkey! A NATO member since 1952 and historical antagonist of Russia.
Besides being famous for caviar, Azerbaijan is blessed with one of the largest natural
gas fields in the world: the famous SHAH DENIZ fields, in the middle of the Caspian
Sea. What's more, as of 2020, Azerbaijan has been selling natural gas to Europe.
Look at this map. Here you can see how gas travels from the Caspian
Sea to Southern Italy. Construction started in May 2016 and was completed in November 2020. In total,
four years. At the time, this pipeline generated a lot of controversy.
And yes, Russian propaganda was involved to the maximum in Italy.
They even got the Five Star Movement, the trending political party at the time,
on their side. But nothing that transcended public opinion.
In fact, we have all seen THIBAUT COURTOIS, winning the soccer league with his team,
ATLÉTICO DE MADRID, wearing the shirt of Azerbaijan Land of Fire and nobody
ever protested. Well, thanks to this pipeline, Europe can further diversify its supply today.
N4(Italy and Azerbaijan plan to raise Trans Adriatic Pipeline gas deliveries. Enerdata)
And you’re probably thinking, what a move! Are we really going to replace one
terrible dictator with another? Are we going to give up being
dependent on Russia... to become dependent on Azerbaijan? Well, no!
Relax, because in the select club of "Dictators with natural resources" there is a new player.
Someone no one expected. And, believe me, I’m sure no one saw this one coming.
Meet Turkmenistan! This country doesn't even participate in Eurovision. If you're
familiar with it, maybe it's because of a video we made on VisualPolitik that seemed
more like a humorous monologue than anything else. In fact,
it's a video that has a lot of views because it's so terrible that it's even funny. The
dictator of this country is called GURBANGULY BERDIMUHAMEDOW (((Gasp air to breathe))).
(((THE NAME APPEARS PRINTED ON THE SCREEN))))
Also known by his oppressed people as... ARKADAG. Well,
Mr. Arkadag is the comic version of Kim Jong-Un.
To give you an idea, he had a 68-foot, that’s a 21-meter high gold statue built
of himself riding a horse. Actually, the statue is made of bronze but it is covered
with 24 carat gold. If you think having a golden statue of yourself is not enough?
He also had one built...of HIS DOG! In addition, Arkadag also composes his own
rap songs and gives concerts to his people. This is not a joke or an exaggeration.
If it weren't for the fact that we are talking about one of the
most oppressive regimes in the world, it would look like an episode of South Park.
However... Turkmenistan has the FOURTH largest natural gas
reserves in the world. And its only major buyer at the moment is China.
For several years, they have been trying to build a pipeline to be able to sell to
India. This pipeline is called the TAPI. Which is an acronym for: Turkmenistan,
AF-GA-NIS-TAN, Pakistan and India. Yes, that’s right. Turkmenistan's economic
future depended on a gas pipeline that was to pass through Afghanistan.As you can imagine,
it's a pretty uncertain future right now. I'm not saying it's not going to be built. But... as you
can imagine, at the moment, building anything in Afghanistan is a very complicated task.
In other words, Mr. Arkadag may be a dictator but... he's got natural gas and he's desperate to
sell it. And that explains news stories like this. (Agreement between Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan paves the way for Trans-Caspian Pipeline. Novastan)
That's right! If you remember, in the video we made about Turkmenistan we
already told you that this country had plenty of natural gas. But we
took it for granted that this gas could never reach Europe. However,
necessity is the mother of invention. And the solution is already on the table.
All that is needed is to connect Turkmenistan's gas to the pipeline
that already connects Azerbaijan to Italy and....
Voila! Europe will be connected to the fourth largest natural gas reserves in the world.
In addition to all this, there is another advantage Turkmenistan has... Check out the map…Do
you see what I see? Yes, exactly: Turkmenistan competes with Russia in the gas market? But it has
NO border with Russia! That is, it is a difficult country to invade. And you’re probably thinking,
is it really possible to start building gas extraction plants in Turkmenistan? Just think,
we are talking about one of the most underdeveloped places in the world.
What’s more, it is a dictatorship where legal certainty is conspicuous by its absence. But,
let's be clear, if the political will is there... anything is possible. At this point it is worth
remembering that 100 years ago, Saudi Arabia was not much better off than Turkmenistan is today.
Of course, this does not mean that Europe will stop buying gas from Russia. Nor does
it mean that getting new suppliers will solve all the energy problems. But it does show that,
with political will, it is possible to start reducing Russian dependence. And it is urgent.
So the question is, Will there really be political will this time? Will we really see
Europe making a clear policy to stop depending on Russia? Do you think this is a good idea?
And more importantly, will we see the BARCELONA football team putting the face of ARKADAG,
the dear leader, on their shirts? You can leave me your answer in the comments.
As always, don't forget that here, on VisualPolitik, we release new videos
every week so subscribe to this channel and hit the little bell so you don't miss any of our
updates. If you liked this video, LIKE it and see you in the next one. Take care and see you soon.