Over 100 of Bin Laden’s personal documents were released by US Intelligence in March
2016.
Within them, Bin Laden talks in great detail about his desires, fears and frustrations
relating to Al Qaeda and trying to establish an Islamic State, something that ISIS has
claimed to have since created in Syria.
Some who have analysed the letters also feel they provide invaluable insight into why ISIS
will eventually fail.
So what exactly did Bin Laden’s letters have to say about the Islamic State?
Well, the majority of the letters were written after 9/11 when Bin Laden was in hiding in
Pakistan.
He was extremely wary about establishing an Islamic State for fear of a U.S. attack, saying,
“Even though we were able to militarily and economically exhaust and weaken our greatest
enemy before and after the eleventh, the enemy continues to possess the ability to topple
any state we establish…
Therefore, the more we can conduct operations against America, the closer we get to uniting
our efforts to establish an Islamic State....”
For Bin Laden, establishing an Islamic State simply couldn’t happen unless the U.S. was
out of the picture.
ISIS by contrast, have invested the majority of its interests in seizing territory in Iraq
and Syria in order to establish a Sunni Islamic State.
Though this may change given the fact that the U.S. and other allies have stepped up
their attacks on the terror group.
Exactly the reaction Bin Laden had feared with a potential Al Qaeda state.
In another letter, he stresses that jihadi fighters should avoid publicizing prisoner
brutality in order to win supporters, saying they should, “Avoid publishing pictures
of prisoners after they were beheaded.”
Which is, again, in stark contrast to the way ISIS present themselves, releasing grotesquely
violent videos of prisoners being killed.
Yet current Al Qaeda members haven’t exactly followed all of their former leader's instructions
either.
In a correspondence with one high-level Al Qaeda commander, Bin Laden insists that their
fighters should refrain from using violence against other Muslims, again to win support,
commenting, “Muslims in general, and the mujahidin in particular, need to hear you
cautioning them on the serious matter of shedding Muslim blood unjustly.”
Now, Al Qaeda has condemned ISIS who have killed thousands of muslims -- both Sunni
and Shia.
Yet this attitude is hypocritical given that Al Qaeda has also been accused of doing the
same.
But this kind of back and forth also speaks to a brutal rivalry that has emerged between
Al Qaeda and ISIS in recent years, as the ‘two networks compete for funding, prestige
and recruits.’
According to one CIA case officer in the Middle East, Bin Laden was in fact "terrified of
a jihadist civil war”, fearing that fighting with allies would weaken Al Qaeda, which to
some extent it has.
And by seizing control of territory in Syria and Iraq, ISIS has superseded Al-Qaeda as
the more domineering jihadi group.
The question is, for how long?
As Bin Laden wrote back in 2010, “If a controlling force, that enjoys the support of the majority
where it has taken control, fails to provide for the basic needs of the people, it will
lose their support ...”
Though ISIS has gained control of cities like Mosul, there are numerous reports that they
are unable to maintain and win the support of residents and it’s largely because their
finances are dwindling.
Coalition airstrikes, global oil prices falling and the supply cuts by the Iraqi government
have diminished funds, leading to heavy taxation and inflation across ISIS territory.
According to reports, some food items have doubled and even tripled in price since the
end of 2015.
And Bin Laden’s words certainly seem to have a prophetic truth to them, as many residents
and even former fighters have started fleeing ISIS controlled territories.
Perhaps that is what makes these letters so important.
As the former leader of one of the most prolific terror groups in existence, Bin Laden’s
words provide insights into the fears, failures, and weaknesses of a terrorist organization.
Insights that could prove invaluable in the fight against ISIS.
We dedicated a whole episode exploring why ISIS and Al Qaeda hate each other - you can
click here to watch this video right now.
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