And joining me for more
on this, CNN global affairs
analyst Kim Dozier and retired U.S.
Army Major Mike Lyons.
Good to see you both this morning.
Major Lyons, let me start with you.
I'm sure you just heard Fred's
piece there.
Any any clues based on what we
we do know the type of plane
it was, the region this took place.
In any sense, from your perspective
about what's really accurate here?
Well, from my perspective,
I don't think it was a prisoner exchange.
You don't put P.O.W.s inside of airplanes
and fly them away from the battlespace,
which is what this plane was doing.
And IL 76 is kind of the main workhorse
cargo plane for the Russian military.
It's been in service since 1975,
similar to RC one 41
and likely can travel with
equipment and men and materials.
But in this particular situation,
the fact that it was shot down,
going away from the battle
space to me
says there was something else on that,
not necessarily P.O.W.s.
Hmm.
Kim, what do you make of the
the significance of where this happened?
The Belgorod region
this is an area
where we've seen a lot of activity
even from the start of the war,
but even certainly
more specifically
the last few weeks and months
Well, it would make sense
that Russian prisoners were held
in that
that Ukrainian prisoners were held
in that same general area.
And the prisoner exchange
procedure has been shrouded in secrecy.
Neither the Russians
nor the Ukrainians explain
how it happens, where it happens.
All we know right now
is on the Ukrainian side.
There seems to be a lot of confusion.
The prisoner bureau is saying, well,
you can't believe the Russians.
They put out a lot of disinformation
but members of the senior military
officials are saying
that they suspect
this might have been their work.
A Ukrainian
news outlet
put out a report
that there were missiles on the plane
and then took that down.
We simply don't know
where the plane was headed,
where the exchanges take place.
And unless the Russians return
the remains from the battlefield
to the Ukrainians
proving that there were actual
Ukrainian remains
prisoners on that plane.
We may never know what it was carrying.
Wow.
I mean, Major,
do you think that that is likely?
I mean, we have certainly seen
prisoner swaps before
between Russia and Ukraine.
Do you think that we'll ever get
that sort of sense of clarity
about what happened?
Yeah, to Kim's point,
Belgorod is the place
where Russian supplies go through.
It's it's
the main place where everything comes,
you know,
from the back sides of Russia
through from Moscow into Belgrade.
And then eventually gets forward
into Ukraine for the fight.
Yeah.
Until we see any kind of proof
coming from Russia,
it's likely that we'd have to presume
it was something else.
And again, from from my perspective,
these usually take place on the ground
prisoner exchanges close to the border.
I'm not sure where there would be flying
that the plane is not going to Ukraine.
It's not going to land there.
And anything like that.
So we've got to get more information
from Russia,
which I suspect won't come out.
Yeah.
You know, Kim,
let me say on the
the issue of whether
this was a prisoner swap,
I know you said that in general,
they are shrouded in secrecy.
There isn't a lot of information
that is often shared.
But I imagine that the folks
who are
intimately involved
with the prisoner swap,
that there must be a lot of coordination.
There must be a lot of planning.
I mean,
is there a world in which
Ukraine would not have known
if their own were on board
in the fog of war?
Absolutely.
An organization,
you know, a group of soldiers
on the ground
looking for aircraft targets
might not be clued
in to the fact
that there was a Top-Secret
prisoner exchange happening somewhere.
We don't know
where could it happen with
the border between Crimea and territory
and that part of Ukraine
or in the Belgorod region.
We just don't know.
All we know
is that the planned prisoner
exchange for today,
Ukrainian officials are saying, is off.
And from all of the different quotes
coming out,
various Ukrainian officials
there's confusion,
there's worry from the Russian side.
This is a great
information operation,
whatever was on that plane.
And it's going to put doubt in the hearts
and minds of the troops on the ground
on the Ukrainian side,
just after
they had a pretty stunning victory
on January 15th,
they claimed to shoot down
a Russian spy plane
and a Russian command plane. Those
shoot
downs have not been
confirmed by the Russian side.
But this will make them wonder
the next time
they focus on a Russian plane in the air,
could their own people be on it?
You know, Major, I wonder, we are exactly
one month away from the two year
anniversary.
I mean, February 24th, right?
I mean, is the two year
anniversary of Russia's invasion
into Ukraine, I wonder what your
your assessment right now of the war is.
And if you think that
this is illustrative of perhaps some
sort of activity
picking up in a significant way,
I mean,
how do you view this
in the larger scheme of things?
Well, they're fighting through winter
and they're fighting
through those conditions
that exist on the ground there
You're seeing snippets that come out
on the Internet
of different victories
and small tactical ways
that the Ukrainians seem to have.
I mean, the fact that this is an air
defense system
that came from Ukraine
fired over Russia, technically
shot down in Russia,
I think
is another thing
that makes a difference in the fact
that their
overall Ukraine air defense
capability is better against the Kims
point about the other two planes
being shot down as well.
But the lines on
the ground are not changing.
They just haven't changed really since
the counter-offensive
started back in June.
It's the harsh reality of the situation.
As you know, both sides
try to gain some advantage.
But Russia
continues to reinforce its troops
in Ukraine
as long as it's support from the West,
which is now they're looking
like they're running out
of artillery ammunition.
They'll run out here in the next 90 days.
If they're not careful,
we'll continue to fight on as well.
It doesn't look
like there's any end in sight. Hmm.
All right.
Kim Dozier and Major Mike Lyons, thank
you both.