Jesse, one of the eeriest things is
that tomorrow is 16 years to the day
since Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans.
So so many terrible memories from that storm,
and I think a lot of people are quite
scared down there tonight. Yeah,
a lot of people are drawing comparisons
between Ida and Katrina, and rightfully so.
This intensity is close to the same.
The track is awfully similar.
The date is exactly the same
strange kind of a strange situation,
but I do want to talk about that
storm surge that you just learned
about and compare Ida and Katrina.
As you might remember, Katrina,
the storm surge was one of the
most devastating things. I mean,
people in New Orleans lost their lives,
their homes because of the
storm surge of Katrina.
So the first thing we're going to
do is compare the two tracks so
you learned there that the track
is just part of the equation,
intricate little tiny shifts
and details make a difference,
and I'll explain here.
This is the track of Ida the expectation
of Ida were pretty narrowed in here
that it's going to be a category
four making landfall just South
of New Orleans Sunday afternoon.
Now here's the track of Hurricane Katrina.
This yellow line very similar
especially toward landfall.
We're going to zoom in here,
so here's where we expect Ida to travel.
You see this northwesterly component.
Keep that in mind.
That's key.
And then here's Katrina,
it almost went due north as it was
approaching the Louisiana coast.
That made landfall as a category
three with winds of 125 miles an hour.
We're expecting Ida to make
landfall as a four of 130 very,
very close to the same intensity,
but the direction that actually
makes a huge difference.
And that's why at this time,
and it's something we'll keep an eye on.
There's still dangerous storm surge
expected in the New Orleans area.
But with that northerly track that
allowed the winds from Katrina
to funnel in a little bit better
here into Lake Poncha train.
And that's where they saw 10 to 15 plus
feet of storm surge in the New Orleans area.
So that path allowed for that to
happen as it moved over Lake born
and ponchartrain those winds kind
of funneled in here and brought
in that very heavy storm surge.
Again. That was Katrina.
The tracks could be so similar with
Ida but this again is why we saw
that 15 plus feet of storm surge.
Now with Ida we're expecting ten to 15
feet but a little bit farther South.
Because of that northwesterly entrance.
Hurricane notice,
though New Orleans still 7 to 11
feet at the track is so similar if
it starts to take a little bit of a
more northerly or northeasterly jog,
we may have to add that 15 feet
into the pod to trade area.
So right now it's 7 to 11 because
of the track.
It's such a very delicate thing to
forecast because of how sensitive just
the smallest little direction changes,
momentum changes, speed of the storm,
wind speed at landfall makes
a huge difference.
A quick look here if you
remember last year 2020.
There were four landfalls in Louisiana.
This is the last thing they need Laura,
which was the strongest hurricane
that ever made landfall in Louisiana.
Delta Christabel,
which was a tropical storm in Zada,
which was a category three.
So Ida there are hurricane
warnings in effect.
For a good chunk of southern Louisiana
outside of that tropical storm warnings,
there's Hurricane Ida becoming
more organized this afternoon.
The eyes becoming more well defined
that will allow it to exploded
intensity over the next 24 hours
before actually making landfall.
Still, a category two.
Our new update comes out
in about 30 to 40 minutes.
Look for that on wfaa.com and then
also on our social media pages
so the track remains the same.
No big changes here,
just a closer look to show you
landfall tomorrow sometime in
the afternoon is a category.
Four with winds of 130 miles an hour,
so this will be very close to New Orleans,
and then it'll kind of take a more
northeasterly jog before weakening back
into a tropical storm Monday afternoon.
Flooding rain.
We talked about the storm surge winds 130
plus miles an hour along the Louisiana coast,
10 to 15 inches rain.
The wind speeds the rainfall
very similar to Katrina.
Really,
really similar numbers here 5 to 10 inches
for Mississippi in parts of Alabama,
again up to 15 inches in Louisiana,
so the height.