On 30 October 1995, Quebec came very close to voting to break away from Canada.
Just over 50,000 votes - out of almost 5 million cast - separated the sides.
And yet today we hear very little about Quebec.
So, where do things stand now? Does Quebec still want independence?
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Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflict and the origins of countries.
We have a tendency to think that once a people have set
their sights on independence it's usually a one-way road.
Sentiment will grow until independence is either achieved or put down by political
or sometimes military repression.
However, this isn't always the case.
Sometimes independence movements - even ones that command a great deal
of support at the particular moment - can appear to fade with the passage of time.
One of the best examples of this is Quebec.
In the latter quarter of the last century, the campaign for an independent Quebec
came to be seen as one most significant secessionist movement in the world.
Indeed, at one time, it would have been close to the top of any list of territories viewed
as future independent UN members.
And it came incredibly close to this in 1995.
A vote for independence was defeated by the narrowest of margins.
However, in the two and a half decades since then, the topic appears to have dropped off the agenda.
We certainly don't hear much about it in the news anymore.
So, is it right to suppose that Quebec no longer wants independence?
At little under 10 million square kilometres, or 3.9 million square miles,
Canada is the second largest of the 193 members of the United Nations, after the Russian Federation.
According to current estimates,
its population stands at around 38 million - putting in 39th place between Poland and Morocco.
A federal system, Canada is made up of 10 provinces and three territories.
The largest province is Quebec, which is 1.5 million square kilometres,
or 600,000 square miles.
This makes it roughly the same size as Ukraine.
In terms of population, it's the second largest Canadian
province, with around 8.5 million inhabitants.
But what sets Quebec apart from the rest of the country is language.
While Canada is officially bilingual - with English and French both recognised as official
languages - across the country as a whole around 80 percent speak english as their first language.
In contrast, in Quebec, 80 per cent speak French as their primary language.
Although the presence of the indigenous people of Canada stretches back thousands of years,
the story really starts at the beginning of the 16th century
when French explorers and traders first made their way to what is now Quebec
and established the first settlements of what would eventually become New France.
By the middle of the 17th century,
France had extended its colonial holdings across North America down to the Gulf of Mexico.
However, in 1763, following the Seven Years War, it was forced to cede its North American holdings
east of the Mississippi river to Britain under the terms of the Treaty of Paris.
Crucially, the Treaty also stipulated that Britain would allow the Catholic, French,
inhabitants of the relinquished territories to continue to practice their religion.
This was confirmed in 1774 under the terms of the Quebec Act,
which also confirmed the continued use of French civil law in the province.
In 1791, following the end of the US War of Independence, and the establishment of the
United States of America, the province was divided into two separate parts:
the predominantly French-speaking Lower Canada and English-speaking Upper Canada,
which boardered the US and became a haven for many of the loyalists who had left the United States.
In the decades that followed, tensions grew between the communities.
In 1837, a rebellion broke out in Lower Canada
exposing the rifts that had emerged between English and French speakers.
In 1841, the two territories were merged to form a single unit:
the Province of Canada; a step deliberately designed to quell French agitation.
Notably, it was also stipulated that English would be Canada's sole official language.
In 1867, Canada united with two other British colonies - Nova
Scotia and New Brunswick - to form a confederation, the Dominion of Canada.
From there, the country expanded rapidly acquiring Rupert's Land and the North-Western Territory,
in 1870, the Colony of British Columbia, in 1871, and the Arctic Islands, in 1880.
Meanwhile, as the country evolved and became divided into various provinces,
the boundaries of Quebec also changed.
In 1898, it expanded northwards, followed by a further expansion in 1912..
It assumed its current borders in 1927, when the territory of Labrador was officially
ceded to neighbouring Newfoundland, which was then a separate dominion.
Throughout all of this, Quebec retained its strong Francophone and Catholic identity.
But as time passed and Canada had expanded to take in other English-speaking territories,
it came to be increasingly at odds with the rest of the country;
not only socially, but politically and economically.
In 1960, a new liberal, modernising provincial government took power in
Quebec and instituted what came to be known as the 'Quiet Revolution'.
Although the administration driving the changes was federalist in outlook,
the greater sense of self-confidence that emerged in Quebec at this time now fed calls
in many quarters for a looser relationship with Canada, if not full independence.
In response to these trends, the Canadian Government under Prime Minister Pierre
Trudeau - himself from Quebec, and the father of the country's current prime minister,
Justin Trudeau - began to push back against Quebec nationalism.
One particularly important step included making French an official language of Canada as a whole.
However, the separatist mood continued to grow.
In 1976, the Parti Québécois to power
on a platform promising what was termed 'a sovereignty association'.
Quebec would become independent in most regards,
but would share certain governmental functions with Canada, such as a currency.
On 20 May 1980, the ideas were put to a referendum.
However they were rejected by 59.6% of the electorate.
In the years that followed, the Parti Québécois
made no attempt to hold another referendum and it was voted out of power in 1985.
However, slightly less than a decade later the party returned to power.
Repeating the call for Quebec to become sovereign, and again
outlining areas of shared functions, it called for another referendum.
This second vote took place on the 30 October 1995.
Out of just over five million registered voters,
four and three-quarter million went to the poll; a remarkably high turnout of 93.5%.
The final result was incredibly tight.
The proposals were defeated by the narrowest of margins 50.6% to 49.4% percent.
In real terms, this amounted to just under 55 000 votes.
While the independence campaign appeared to have been held off,
it nevertheless led to some important developments in the years that followed.
The first of these was the Canadian Government's request for the country's Supreme Court
to provide a ruling on whether Quebec could potentially secede unilaterally from Canada.
On 20 August 1998, the Court delivered its decision.
In a ruling that's helped to shape wider approaches to secession, the judges
argued that there was no right to unilateral secession under Canadian or international law.
However, and importantly, the Court also noted that in the event that Quebec
clearly voted to secede Canada should not deny them that right.
However, both parties should negotiate in good faith and recognising the interests
of various other parties, including the other provinces and the federal government.
This in turn led to the second major development.
In July 2000, the Canadian Parliament passed what's called the Clarity Act.
This set out the way in which questions of secession should be handled in future.
First of all, it stipulated that any referendum question must be clear.
Secondly, in the event of a vote for independence, any subsequent negotiations on separation must be
held with all the provinces of Canada as well as the country's indigenous peoples.
Thirdly, any act of secession would require an amendment to the Canadian constitution.
In other words, while Canada was willing to entertain the idea of secession,
it had to be done in a democratic and consensual manner.
And although Quebec has refused to officially accept the law,
it nevertheless provides a framework for its secession - potentially - in the future.
So, where does this leave the independence movement now?
A quarter of a century after the last referendum,
all the polling suggests that support for independence has declined significantly.
Today, it would seem to enjoy support from between a quarter and a third of the population.
More to the point, a clear majority would definitely vote against independence.
This also seems to be supported by voting figures.
The two largest parties in Quebec, which together polled about three quarters of
the electorate at the last provincial elections, in 2018, oppose independence.
So, what's led this move against independence?
As one might expect, there are a complex range of reasons.
In part, it would seem to be down to a shift of focus away from outright
independence to a focus instead on political and cultural autonomy.
As many observers point out, while support for independence has dropped,
Quebec nationalism nevertheless remains strong.
The largest party in Quebec, while opposing independence, is considered
to be nationalist in outlook and actually supports greater autonomy for the province.
Tied to this,
further steps seem to have been taken to preserve Quebec's French language identity.
While French has been the sole official language since the 1970s,
many felt that English had been steadily encroaching in many areas.
New laws to tighten up enforcement and the establishment of an office to ensure the
everyday use of French in civil administration seems to have helped ease those fears.
But, perhaps most importantly, demographic changes also seem to be playing a part.
Whereas in many places pro-independent support appears to be stronger in the young,
in Quebec it's the opposite.
Those supporting separation tend to be over 55.
The young seemed far more at ease with having a Canadian and a Francophone identity.
Polling suggests just a quarter would vote for independence.
This is significant as it would seem to suggest that support for independence
will continue to decline in the years ahead.
All this said, it's still perhaps too early to say that
the independence movement is at an end in Quebec.
While it's certainly far less pronounced than it once was,
it still commands support amongst a significant part of society.
More to the point, many in Quebec seem to feel that it could yet make a comeback.
Polling suggests that while 40% believe that the sovereignty movement has had its day,
almost half believe that it will one day return.
And this is where one final factor could well be crucial: immigration.
The number of English- and non-French speakers is set to increase.
Statistics Canada suggests that the Francophone population will decline to between 69-72% by 2036.
The question is whether this will see support for independence watered down
or whether it will feed a renewed sense of Francophone nativism?
Quebec is a fascinating case for anyone interested in secession and independence,
and in a number of distinct ways.
Despite having come under British rule in the 18th century, it's managed to retain
its strong Francophone heritage in the two and a half centuries that have followed.
However, starting the 1960s, the quest for political
and cultural independence really began to take off.
This eventually led to a referendum on independence
in 1995 that came remarkably close to passing.
And yet, over the past quarter of a century, calls for independence have in fact subsided in Quebec.
Although there's still a significant body of the population that wants sovereign statehood,
and Quebec is still probably the most serious independence movement
in the Americas, the numbers are now significantly lower than they once were.
That said, while the ambition for statehood looks likely to decline in the years ahead,
it's still too soon to write it off once and for all.
It may well make a return.
In the meantime, Quebec is now in the position of being one of the few territories in the world
that has an explicit route to independence.
And yet, having firmly secured that right, and having also taken steps to try to preserve its
distinct cultural identity, it now seems not to want to separate from Canada.
For all these reasons, it remains a fascinating case study
for anyone interested in secession and independence movements in the modern world.
I hope you found that interesting.
If so, here are some more videos that you might find useful.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.