( APPLAUSE )
I HAVE ONE MORE RESULT HERE. THIS IS CONNECTICUT.
IN THE RACE FOR CONNECTICUT GOVERNOR INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT NED
LAMONT HAS DEFEATED REPUBLICAN ROBERT STEFANOWSKI.
ALTHOUGH THE RACE IS STILL A COMPLETE TOSS-UP WHEN IT COMES
TO GUESSING WHICH ONE IS WHICH. >> Stephen: FOLKS, A MAN WHO
WILL KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT, MY FIRST GUEST IS CBS NEWS'
CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST, AND ANCHOR OF "CBS NEWS PRIME TIME
WITH JOHN DICKERSON." PLEASE WELCOME BACK TO "THE LATE
SHOW," JOHN DICKERSON. ♪ ♪ ♪
♪ ♪ ♪
>> Stephen: NOW, YOU'VE SEEN ALL THE BREAKING-- BREAKING
RACES WHAT WE TALKED ABOUT. IS THERE SOMETHING-- BEFORE WE
START, IS THERE SOMETHING YOU CAN BREAK RIGHT NOW.
>> OUR PRODUCER SENT ME ARIZONA CBS IDENTIFIES ARIZONA GOVERNOR
AND SENATE, BOTH AS LEAN DEMOCRAT AT THIS MOMENT.
( APPLAUSE )
YOU KNOW, THAT'S JUST A PROGNOSTICATION, BUT, OF
COURSING, THOSE, YOU KNOW, THE ARIZONA SENATE RACE IS ONE
DEMOCRATS CENTER TO HOLD IF THEY WANT TO STAY IN THE CONTROL OF
THE SENATE. AND OBVIOUSLY IN IN ARIZONA, YOU
HAVE KARI LAKE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE WHO IS A THOROUGH ELECTION
DENIER. >> Stephen: AND HAS SAID SHE
WILL ACCEPT THE RESULTS IF SHE WINS.
>> RIGHT. AND YOU'VE GOT AN ELECTION
TENIER, FINCHAM, RUNNING FOR STOS, WHO SAID A VERSION OF THE
SAME THING. AND BLAKE MASTERS HAS DENIED AND
TRIED TO MODERATE, AS HE HAS ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT POSITIONS.
THAT'S WHERE THAT'S GOING AND IT'S BEEN KIND OF IN KEEPING
WITH THE NIGHT WHICH IS IT'S NOT THE OVERWHELM AGO IF SOMETHING'S
LEADING DEM, THAT MEANS IT'S GOING IN THE DEMOCRATIC
DIRECTION, AND THAT'S KIND OF WHERE THE NIGHT HAS BEEN GOING,
RELATIVE TO PEOPLE'S EXPECTATIONS.
>> Stephen: FIRST OF ALL, THANK YOU FOR COMING OVER.
I KNOW THAT WE BORROWED YOU FROM CBS NEWS MIDTERM COVERAGE, AND I
DON'T WANT TO BE LATE HERE. I'M GOING TO STUFF YOU BACK IN
THE PNEUMATIC TUBE AND SEND YOU BACK BECAUSE I CAN'T AFFORD THE
LATE FEES. WE MAY NOT KNOW-- WE HAVE
SCLODDINGER'S ELECTION HERE SO FAR.
WE DON'T KNOW ALL THE RESULTS. WHAT IS VALUABLE FOR US TO KNOW
SO FAR? AND HOW IS TONIGHT COMPARING TO
THE EXPECTATIONS THAT WERE BEING BUILT IN POLLING AND REPORTING
AND LET'S SAY ON 538 THAT PEOPLE REFRESH ON A MINUTE-BY-MINUTE
BASIS LEADING UP TO ELECTIONS LIKE THIS?
IS IT OVERTURNING THESE EXPECTATIONS?
>> YES, BUT A LOT OF THINGS-- LIKE 538 AND A LOT OF POLLING
WOULD HAVE SAID HERE'S WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN, BUT IT'S WITHIN A
RANGE. >> Stephen: RIGHT.
>> AND WE'LL KNOW BY THE END OF THE NIGHT WHETHER WE'RE EVEN
WITHIN THE RANGE. I THINK AT THE MOMENT, WE'RE
STILL-- AT THE MOMENT THINGS ARE NOT TURNING OUT THE WAY
REPUBLICANS THOUGHT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE RACES THEY
HAD HOPED-- THEY HAD SORT OF THREE SCENARIOS AND THEY'RE
REFLECTED IN THREE RACES IN VIRGINIA.
THEY'RE BASICALLY-- KEVIN McCARTHY WAS IN THE TENTH
DISTRICT YESTERDAY. IN OTHER WORDS, THAT'S A DEEP
BLUE AREA. JOE BIDEN WON THAT WITH 58% OF
THE VOTE. TERRY McAULIFFE WON IT WITH 5%
OF THE VOTE. IF YOU SPEND TIME THERE, YOU
THINK YOU'RE GOING TO WIN IN DEEP BLUE TERRITORIES.
THEY DIDN'T WIN IN THE TENTH OR FIFTH. WITH
THE REPUBLICANS PICKED UP ONE SEAT OF THE THREE THEY THOUGHT
THEY WERE GOING TO GET. EXPECTATIONS, THEY'RE
UNDERPERFORMING RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN THEY WON'T STILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.
AT THE MOMENT THEY HAVE ENOUGH SEATS THEY WON THAT THEY FLIPPED
THEY WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.
AND THE KEY QUESTION IS WHAT KIND OF HOUSE ARE YOU IN CONTROL
OF? IS THERE THEY ONLY HAVE TO PICK
UP FIVE TO BECOME THE NEXT SPEAKER.
IT'S A FAIT ACCOMPLI HE WILL BE THE SPEAKER?
>> IF YOU ONLY PICK UP SIX, EVERY MAN OR WOMAN IS A KING
BECAUSE YOU HAVE SUCH SMALL MARGINS, EVERYBODY CAN SAY, WELL
YOU CAN'T REALLY AFFORD LOSE MY VOTE.
WHEN YOU WIN A SPEAKERSHIP YOU WANT TO HAVE A BIG MARGIN SO YOU
CAN ALLOW PEOPLE TO BE KIND OF CRAZY AND OVER THERE.
THINK ABOUT WHAT IT'S BEEN LIKE TO BE A REPUBLICAN SPEAKER.
NEWT GINGRICH BECAME SPEAKER AND WAS ULTIMATELY PUSHED OUT AND HE
SAID THE ULTRACONSERVATIVE MEMBERS WERE CANNIBALS.
AND JOHN BOEHNER CALLED THEM POLITICAL TERRORISTS.
SO McCARTHY MAY VERY WELL BE SPEAKER, BUT HE MAY HAVE A VERY
RESTIVE CAUCUS THAT MAKES HIS LIFE VERY DIFFICULT AND WITH A
SMALL MARGIN, THAT MAKES IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT.
>> Stephen: ONE THING I HAVE HEARD YOU TALK ABOUT IS THERE'S
VERY LITTLE SPLIT-TICKET VOTING ANYMORE.
BUT YOU'RE SEEING SOME OF IT THIS TIME AROUND.
>> YEAH. >> Stephen: WHERE ARE WE
SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THAT. >> IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
GOVERNOR SUNUNU, THE REPUBLICAN, WAS REELECTED BY A WIDE MARGIN.
BUT BOLDUC, THE REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATE, WAS BEATEN
RATHER HANDILY, BY MAGGIE HASSAN, THE DEMOCRAT.
THERE YOU HAD VOTERS WHO WERE VOTING FOR THE DEMOCRAT FOR
SENATE, BUT VOTING FOR THE REPUBLICAN FOR GOVERNOR.
OR THEY WERE VOTING FOR THE REPUBLICAN FOR GOVERNOR AND THEN
JUST LEAVING THE VOTING BOOTH. IN GEORGIA, THOUGH IT HASN'T
BEEN CALLED YET, BRIAN KEMP WON HANDILY, BY I THINK TWO MILLION
VOTES. HERSCHEL WALKER IS AT ABOUT 179.
WHICH MEANS 200,000 VOTERS IN GEORGIA, REPUBLICANS, EITHER
VOTE FORWARD KEMP-WARNOCK, REPUBLICAN-DEMOCRAT, OR JUST
KEMP AND LEFT TOWN, OR LEFT THE VOTING BOOTH.
>> Stephen: WHEN YOU CAME OUT HERE, WHERE DID THAT RACE STAND?
WHEN I CAME OUT HERE TO START THE SHOW, IT WAS FOUR-TENSION OF
1% WITH NEITHER CANDIDATE HAVING 50%.
>> THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT. NEITHER HAS 50%.
AND THEY MAY NOT. CHASE OLIVER, THE THIRD PERSON
RUNNING, WHO HAS 2% OF THE VOTE, MAY MAKE THIS A RUNOFF.
IF IT'S A RUNOFF, DECEMBER 6 WILL BE ANOTHER ELECTION.
>> Stephen: JUST LIKE LAST TIME.
YES. WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF WE GET TO
BASICALLY THE REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS GET WHAT THEY NEED,
BASICALLY ENTIRE CONTROL OF THE SENATE COULD COME DOWN TO
GEORGIA, THE ENTIRE POLITICAL WORLD BETWEEN NOW AND DECEMBER 6
COULD MOVE TO GEORGIA AND THAT RACE BETWEEN JUST WARNOCK AND
WALKER COULD BE WHAT IT ALL COMES DOWN TO FOR CONTROL OF THE
SENATE. AND THEN EVERYTHING WILL GO
BONJERS. >> Stephen: WELL, ON THAT
BONKERS NOTE, WE'RE GOING TO TAKE A PAUSE HERE, TAKE A
COMMERCIAL BREAK, AND WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK WITH MORE JOHN
DICKERSON, EVERYBODY.