Wedged between Europe, North Africa and Central Asia, the Middle East is undoubtedly one of the
hottest spots in international geopolitics. Whether we are talking about energy supply,
religion, terrorism, opaque finances or wars. The Middle East is always in the limelight.
We are talking about a place that is geographically as close to the West as it is
socially, politically and culturally distant. However, within this agitated region there is
a surprisingly stable group of countries with a shared goal:
to steer the destinies of the Islamic world. A common goal, but they have very different methods.
Specifically, we can find two large groups:
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the one side, and Qatar and Turkey on the other.
And VisualPolitik fans, the Qatar-Turkey alliance is precisely the latest great alliance,
the latest great entente to be forged in this troubled region of the world.
And take note, because apart from Iran, the rivalry between these two major groups
is so great that we could almost, almost call it a real conflict, a kind of Arab cold war.
For example, the savage boycott with which Emirates and the Arab nations
punished Qatar between 2017 and 2019 was perhaps the most prominent example,
but by no means the only action, in this particular Arab Game of Thrones.
So, what exactly is the alliance between Turkey and Qatar based on? What interests
are they pursuing? And perhaps the most important question of all:
What on earth distances them from the two largest monarchies in the Persian Gulf?
Let's get started. (INTRO)
As it stands, the Islamic world is as complex as it is perhaps
sometimes incomprehensible to those of us who are not part of it.
But, if we try to simplify the political map, we could say that there are, as you all know,
two main religious branches: Shiism, which is mainly concentrated in Iran,
and Sunnism, which is basically the prevailing religion in the rest of the Muslim world.
Well, if we look closer and focus on the Middle East from the Sunni side,
we will find two large politico-religious blocs:
What we could call the Islamist bloc and the bloc of absolutist monarchies.
And then in between there are some countries that play
both sides and, of course, different insurgent groups on either side.
The Islamist bloc is led primarily by Qatar and
Turkey. And the political-insurgent faction that these countries finance,
promote and help in every conceivable way is known as the Muslim Brotherhood.
An organization that plays a key role in this whole story.
Then, on the other hand, the group of absolute monarchies is led by Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates, although Bahrain is often included, and by affiliation and alliance also Egypt.
These are the two alliances that are currently splitting Arab politics down the middle.
Now, what exactly does each group stand for? What exactly is pitting them against each other? And,
let's be honest, another important question: Why should we even care?
Well, you see, on the one hand, Islamism or political Islam is a theory that supports a
kind of "Islamic democracy" as an essential political system.
Its greatest exponent is the Muslim Brotherhood, a supranational and ultraconservative organization
that former President Donald Trump himself asked to be considered as a terrorist group.
Well, the Muslim Brotherhood is mainly financed by Qatar and helped by Turkey. Then, in turn,
this organization finances, advises and collaborates with Islamist parties in
much of the Muslim world. Their objective is to implement Sharia law and their particular vision
of civil "political" Islamism, which in practice clashes with the
regimes of countries like Saudi Arabia. Of course we are talking about a very,
very unusual model of democracy, one in which politics and the State have the
mission of imposing a religious interpretation of life, laws and institutions. In fact one of
the problems it presents is the direct influence of imams and in many cases very radical imams.
In contrast to this is the theory of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,
whose political system is based on a royal family that is supposed to be able to keep
religious radicalism under control.And that is exactly what Mohammed bin Zayed,
crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates,
is defending tooth and nail. He’s probably the most powerful Arab leader in the world right now.
Well, the fact is that, according to bin Zayed, Arab society today is not ready for democracy,
to the extent that openness to the world can only be led by authoritarian regimes.
In this way, according to this political leader, promoting democracies would only
feed fundamentalist groups that would end up winning elections.
Of course, as you can imagine, both the UAE and Saudi Arabian governments are bitter enemies
of the Muslim Brotherhood. And not only that. As the Qatari
and Turkish bloc shelters and protects this political-Islamist organization,
friction, conflicts and tense situations between the two blocs are the order of the day.
And do you know what? This is exactly where this whole story gets interesting.
Listen up.
(AN ALLIANCE TO CONTROL THEM ALL)
At this point in the video I think there's a question we’re probably all wondering:
Where on earth does the friendship between two countries as geographically distant
as Turkey and Qatar come from? What interests do they have in each other?
Well, it must be said that this link began much earlier than we might think:
specifically at the end of the 19th century. At that time Qatar became part of the Ottoman
Empire. But, of course, the current alliance has nothing to do with that.
The close Turkish-Qatari link took a giant leap when in 2002 the Justice
and Development Party came to power in Turkey. This is an Islamist party,
with a vision quite different from the secular Turkey that Atatürk founded.
So, as you can imagine, the impression that this
party had of the Muslim Brotherhood was quite positive. And in fact, since then,
the ties between the two organizations have become closer and closer.
And at this point I ask you another question: who do you think is the main sponsor,
financier and promoter of the Muslim Brotherhood? 3,2,1... Bingo, Qatar.
But be careful because this issue, let's call it political or ideological, is not
the only one that has conquered the Turks. Next we have to reckon with Erdogán's own
ambition... Because, it's no secret! The Turkish leader's fantasy is to turn
Turkey into the major Sunni power in the Muslim world. A position that is currently
shared between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. A post, a position for which
Turkey needs to extend its tentacles... Particularly in the Persian Gulf. And that
happens only and exclusively through Qatar, the rebellious black sheep of the Arabian Peninsula.
And of course, some of you may be thinking... but how is this possible, if Turkey and
Erdogán wanted to join the European Union? Even Mariano Rajoy, the former President of Spain,
once crashed a rally in favour of Erdogán. (Rajoy ends up at a rally of Erdogán's
Islamist party after inaugurating a subway line in Ankara - Expansion)
So how on earth can it want to become the great Sunni power of the Muslim world and at the same
time want to be a part of the most influential supranational organization in the West?
Well, this is where we get into the two-faced game that Erdogán has played – and to some extent
continues to play – practically since the moment he came to power in 2003.
At that time, both Turkey and Qatar managed to portray an image in the West as two examples,
two models of modernization and openness in the Muslim world.
Turkey was considered by Europeans to be the living proof that a country with a Muslim majority
could become a genuine consolidated democracy. This gave it an important international role.
For example, it became the mediator of some of the most serious conflicts in this part of the world.
Then, for its part, Qatar became the main connection, the main bridge between the West
and some radical Islamist insurgent groups, as well as tyrannical governments of all kinds.
For example, Qatar participated in mediations between Hamas,
Fatah and the State of Israel, between Saddam Hussein and the
United States and between Lebanon and the Hezbollah group; among many other groups.
And this is exactly how Doha became the diplomatic capital of the Middle East and
the Arab world. The last outstanding example was precisely the negotiation between the
Trump Administration and the Taliban, in which the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was agreed.
Everything was going smoothly and at full throttle. So much so that
under such circumstances, Turkey and Qatar seemed almost textbook. On the one hand,
Turkey was gaining influence and political clout thanks to Qatar,
while Qatar was gaining the protection of a NATO member military giant.
And it is right here that we have to make a small digression:
Qatar has always lived under the paranoia that any day they could be invaded by the Saudis. Because,
let’s face it, relations between these two countries have traditionally been atrocious.
There was even what has become known as the Qatari-Saudi proxy war. A kind of cold war
or latent conflict in which each country used third parties to do each other's dirty work:
we are talking about terrorist gangs, political parties and religious movements
that were in charge of the dirty work. But of course Qatar is much, much smaller
so there was always the fear that one day Saudi Arabia would send its army to occupy
the emirate. And, precisely to avoid that, Qatar needed an ideological ally that was large,
relatively rich and militarily strong... Ta dah!, enter stage left: Turkey.
Gradually, Qatar and Turkey managed to position themselves as a kind of arbiter among certain
sectors of the Muslim world. And in 2011, they wanted to take a step further to play a much more
active role in Islamic geopolitics. It was then when they began to invest
millions and millions of dollars to support all kinds of insurgent movements, revolutionary
groups and even groups considered as terrorists by a large part of the international community.
All with the aim of bringing down governments and replacing them with Islamist parties loyal
to the Muslim Brotherhood. We are talking about groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, among others.
Any bets on what the outcome was? 3, 2, 1.... Exactly, the Arab Spring.
The Arab Spring was a series of revolts that spread throughout the Arab world
and were interpreted in the West as a popular uprising against despotic and corrupt rulers.
However, everything indicates that these revolts were promoted and financed by Qatar and Turkey.
And in fact, they used so many resources and the success was so great that suddenly the
governments of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began to be seriously worried.
Would they be the next to suffer the consequences?
This is exactly how the two Persian Gulf monarchies, joined shortly afterwards
by Bahrain and Egypt, formed a four-way alliance known as the Middle East Quartet.
Of course, this quartet declared Qatar and Turkey a threat both to regional politics
and to its own interests. From that moment on,
Qatar became more and more isolated from its neighbours, and also increasingly threatened,
making it more and more dependent on Turkey. And then, on the Turkish side, do you remember
the coup attempt of 2016? Well, it's still not clear who orchestrated it, [self-imposed coup,
external-coup] but many fingers point to the theory that it was backed by the United Arab
Emirates with the aim of overthrowing Erdogán. (July 2017 – Middle Eastern supporters of Turkey's
failed coup. A year on, the UAE and Egypt's involvement in Turkey's failed coup attempt
is more apparent than ever before. – Al Jazeera ) And although all this fuss may seem in practice to
be a diplomatic and political failure, the truth is that Turkey got what it wanted:
to counteract the great Arab petro-monarchies and achieve a
prominent political and even military presence in the Persian Gulf itself.
The fact is that this situation created such immense tension that the events did not take
long to unfold and what happened, happened. (June 2017 – 5 Arab Nations Move to Isolate Qatar,
Putting the US in a Bind – The New York Times) (Arab powers list 59 individuals as Qatar-linked
terrorism supporters – Alarabiya News) We’ve covered the blockade in a couple of videos
here on VisualPolitik, videos in which we already told you how, far from making Qatar change,
the blockade served no other purpose but to unite the emirate of the Al-Thani family with Turkey...
With Turkey and also with another archenemy of Saudi Arabia.
(Qatar Restores Full Relations With Iran, Deepening Gulf Feud – The New York Times)
Obviously, yes, Qatar suffered economically from the blockade of its neighbors. But we are
talking about a country so damned rich that, as a leading Qatari banker said,
this would only mean that they would have to go from five to three servants at home.
The fact is that, although the blockade is now a thing of the past,
the tensions between the two blocs continue. But, at this point, what if we put aside
the political and strategic aspects, and focus a little
bit more on the numbers, on the economic part? What has this whole story meant in terms of money?
And pay attention because this is important. Listen up.
(EVERY FAVOR COMES AT A PRICE)
The economic relations between Turkey and Qatar have increased since the alliance was
launched in 2002, but perhaps not in the way you may be thinking.
Interestingly Turkey's trade with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates has grown more than with Qatar.
I guess size counts here. Of course, that's not the whole story.
Qatar and Turkey have signed significant agreements on tourism,
investment and defence. Especially in defense, where important arms contracts have been sealed.
In addition, Qatar has not hesitated for a moment to provide enormous economic support
to its ally during the crisis that both the Turkish economy and the lira itself,
have been weathering since 2018.
To give you an idea of the magnitude of what we are talking about, between 2018 and the end
of 2019 Qatar has contributed about $20 billion to rescue the Turkish economy.
And that's not all. In mid-2020 and in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic,
Qatar signed a $15 billion currency swap agreement with Turkey to resuscitate
the finances of the Erdogán government. In practice, many experts suggest that this
economic assistance is nothing more than a kind of compensation for the increasing protection
that Turkey is giving to Qatar. And wait, because there's more.
In economic-military terms, since 2017 Qatar has finalised the purchase of
numerous pieces of Turkish military equipment. And not only that. The Qataris have also granted
loans to Turkey's military industry, and have invested $100 million in BMC, one of Turkey's
leading armoured vehicle manufacturers. This is how Qatar, the third largest arms
importer in the world in recent years, has become a major customer of the Turkish military industry,
a precious support at a very difficult time for the Turkish economy and companies.
Some would even say that it's a lifesaver.
By the way, before finishing, there is one thing we cannot forget:
Within the umbrella of protection, Turkey has opened its own military base in Doha,
the capital of Qatar. A facility designed to house a permanent contingent of 5,000 soldiers.
So, you see, this is the great alliance that has been born in the Middle East. An alliance that,
at all levels, seems to be here to stay. But having said that, it's your turn: could
there be an open military conflict between Turkey and the two great Arab powers of the Persian Gulf:
Saudi Arabia and the Emirates? Will Qatar continue to support groups like the Muslim Brotherhood?
Leave us your answer below in the comments.
We hope that now you can better understand the political situation
in the Middle East. And if you found this video interesting don't forget to like it.
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Once again, thanks for being there. All the best, and until next time.