(Narrator) Planet Earth is complex
and we rely on mathematics to unlock it's mysteries.
It is integral in both shaping our world and understanding it.
In conjunction with researchers in Australia and overseas,
CSIRO is using mathematical sciences
to explore the complex nature of Alzheimer's disease
and strive to reveal the secrets surrounding it's biological triggers.
(Sam Burnham) CSIRO's goal is to delay the onset of Alzheimer's
by five years by the time we hit 2020.
(Narrator) Hundreds of thousands of Australians
suffer from Alzheimer's disease,
and as our population ages,
numbers will increase,
putting a huge burden on our healthcare services and families.
CSIRO is using statistics to develop a screening test
for the early detection of Alzheimer's disease.
(Sam Burnham) Alzheimer's disease is the leading cause of dementia
and it's about 50 to 80% of all dementia cases
are made up from Alzheimer's disease.
Currently there's quarter of a million of Australians
suffering from dementia and that's set to increase
to nearly a million by the time we hit 2050.
(Narrator) Alzhemier's is triggered by a build up of amyloid beta levels,
which become abnormal around seventeen years before the onset of dementia.
(Lance Macauley) Amyloid beta is really the
first phase that we can detect in Alzheimer's disease.
It's the earliest biomarker we can pick up.
We detect it as a build up of this protein
that mis-folds in the brain
and builds up as plaques in the brain very early in the disease.
(Narrator) It is critical that this build up is detected early
if therapies are to be developed to slow
or alter the progression of the disease.
This is where the maths comes in.
(Lance Macauley) Maths plays a very important role
in our image analysis work for the AIBL study.
If you could understand a human brain is a very complex structure.
It's convoluted and it's surfaces are very different,
so the mathematicians deconstruct that
and make it into an interpretable sphere,
a finite volume, that they can analyze.
(Narrator) As part of the Australian Imaging,
Biomarkers and Lifestyle Study of Ageing
or AIBL -- CSIRO is using sophisticated mathematical models
for some complex analysis.
(Sam Burnham) We looked at blood biomarkers
as well as some cognitive testing and some demographic information.
The panel that we ended up with is based on
seven markers taken from the blood
as well as age and one cognitive test.
(Narrator) Using data from 273 patients,
nine out of a possible three hundred biomarkers
were isolated that will hopefully give doctors
eight to ten year's notice of the onset of the disease.
(Lance Macauley) What early detection does
at the moment is provide us with opportunities
to intervene over the time course of the disease.
(Narrator) And using CSIRO's statistical expertise,
a solution to early detection could be achieved.
(Lance Macauley) If you want to pull together
the biomarker blood panels
and pull together the rest of the data with that,
it wouldn't be possible without the maths.
(Narrator) Australia's ageing population
means the number of people suffering from dementia
is one of the fastest growing major diseases,
overtaking coronary heart disease.
By the 2060s, spending on dementia will outstrip all other health conditions.
The valuable work by the CSIRO team
could delay the onset of Alzheimer's by five years,
nearly halving the cost of dementia to our society.
(Sam Burnham) The cost of Alzheimer's is currently at a percent
of gross domestic product,
so with these increasing number of cases,
that's going to be crippling on our healthcare system
as well as on carers and family members.
So this is a real challenge for Australia.
(Lance Macauley) What we're hoping to do in earlier stages
is to have a blood biomarker screen
that is really going to be able to pick up,
using proteins, lipids, metals in bloods,
metabolites such as sugars, etcetera,
a combination of those which are going to provide us with
a signature if you like,
a bit like cholesterol is for heart disease.
(Narrator) This offers the researchers at CSIRO
opportunities to go further into intervention trials
and also look at lifestyle strategies
that may be protective to Alzheimer's disease.
(Lance Macauley) These are the sorts of things
that we hope we can tease out through
the statistical analysis that we can do through the
longitudinal studies that we're undertaking within the AIBL cohort.
(Narrator) Continuing this research in early detection
is critical in addressing the challenge of this debilitating disease.
Using statistics and mathematical modeling,
will be crucial in finding solutions.
(Lance Macauley) By your mid 80s, fifty percent of people
have some amyloid build up in their brain.
So actually if we live long enough we're all,
or a large percentage of us, are going to be at risk for Alzheimer's disease.
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