Hey, good Tuesday morning everybody.
It's meteorologist Brad panovich.
It's Tuesday and now we get round two of
possibly severe storms this afternoon.
Now a little bit different
timing and setup than yesterday,
but just like yesterday we're
probably going to see at least
one round of decent thunderstorms
that could be severe in today.
It's a little bit more straightforward
where they're coming from because
we can look off to the West.
We see this big cluster of storms
across the parts of Tennessee.
Basically Kentucky down into
northern Alabama deposit right here.
And basically this is what will be tracking
all day is this pushes to the East.
What's interesting.
Is the air mass ahead of it is
actually pretty unstable already
and we're starting to see some
pretty warm and humid air move up.
You can see temperatures in the 60s and 70s,
but let me show you the dew points
in the mid and even upper 60s,
so this is really juicy air really
right there for thunderstorms,
develop ahead of it and we've got that
strong southerly wind which is going to
continue to bring in that warm moist
air from the South ahead of this system,
and so for that reason we've got
that severe weather outlook today
and I'll show it to you real quickly.
Let me turn off the.
Cloud cover here, so it'll be easier to
see so you can see we're all in yellow,
but notice the areas in orange
and red off to the South.
And don't be surprised if there might be
an upgrade to a medium risk in this area.
And again,
because of the way this thing is shaped,
you see a couple tornado warnings
over here right now, but you see,
it's kind of worked out like this.
This is usually what we call a bow echo.
So to me overall this is got straight
line wind risk written all over it,
and you know when we see this setup,
that's typically what we tend
to see is a straight line.
But wind risk.
When we had that kind of Boeing
shape looks like a bow and arrow
on the radar and satellite,
so that'll be heading our way later today,
not tomorrow,
because the single still be moving over us.
I'm going to do today real quick.
You could see as it pushes towards the
coast and this will probably be late
tonight early tomorrow towards the coast.
So basically the reason you see
that low risk up and down the
coast is 'cause that same system
will be pushing off to the East.
So let's take a look at that futurecast.
Alright, this is pretty straightforward.
There is our system off to the
West and this should not be hard
to track because you could see
it pushing to the East by about.
At noon should be just beginning
to move into eastern Tennessee,
about to cross the mountains by 1:00 o'clock.
I expect it to start moving into
the North Carolina
mountains. The thing to watch out for is
obviously the main line will be dangerous,
but any little cells that develop out
ahead of it and that's why I think down
here you saw more of that medium risk
because we could get some isolated cells.
But even East of the mountains,
that will be certainly something I'll
be watching carefully this afternoon.
Two o'clock three o'clock in
about 4:00 o'clock.
You could see it's starting to move across
the heart of the area and embedded in here.
Could be some tornadic storms.
Again, that's not the overwhelming threat.
But that is a threat in this setup,
because within the line you can tend to
get rotating storms and you could see it
kind of coalescing into a pretty strong
***** line through the early evening.
So unlike yesterday's storms,
which came through right in
the middle of the day,
these are going to be more mid to
late afternoon and into the evening.
This is six o'clock,
seven o'clock 8:00 o'clock,
and you could see it pushing off to the
East an also notice back to the West.
The storm still ongoing.
Those should weaken overnight as we
get into the cooler time of the day,
but this will be the cold front right there.
You see it right there,
so this will be arriving
sometime early Wednesday,
so it'll be too cool for severe weather here,
but a little bit of time to heat
up as that pushes to the East.
That's why you're seeing that
risk of severe storms there and
I'll show you that as well so you
can see into the overnight hours.
These storms that approach look ominous.
But then they start to weekend,
but some much needed rain and
will go into tomorrow morning.
You know this is early on Wednesday morning,
789 in the morning you could see the
cold front kind of falling apart.
These storms likely down here blocking
the inflow as they push to the East
and you could see maybe a skinny line
forming right there tomorrow afternoon.
That's why you've got that
low risk right there.
Remember,
let me show you that low risk
again Day 2 right there.
There you go.
That's why you're seeing that risk
because those storms pushing to the
East and you could see that little
line developing and then moving off.
But that should not amount to a whole lot.
Let's go back and show you a
couple other parameters here.
That thunderstorm fuel across the
area just want to show you how much
fuel we're going to have today
because there's time for instability
to build ahead of that line.
This is going into about 2:00
o'clock this afternoon.
3/4 you see the instability
here on the right.
You see the chart we're
starting to get 2 to 3000 Cape.
That's basically a measure of fuel.
When you see anything near 1000 or higher,
you really start to pay attention.
2000 that's a legit chance,
and then above there it's,
you know, we started talking
significant severe weather risk,
but you could see how it gets eaten up
by the storms because this is storm fuel.
So as the storms move in.
They use it up, that's why you see such a
defining line as they push off to the West.
Let me quickly show you a
significant tornado parameter.
Again, not off the charts here.
Pretty low numbers,
maybe one one and a half,
but one interesting thing is the what
we call updraft Felicity storms that
will rotate and again not a not really
strong rotation in these storms.
But you could see embedded in the line.
There could be a couple of
segments that rotate.
Nothing here jumps off the charts to me.
Just the fact that some of these
storms could have that potential.
To be strong or severe.
So again,
backing this up a little bit will
show you that's line moving through
tonight into early are basically
late this afternoon into tonight and
then another line forming tomorrow.
That's going to be the main driver
of our severe weather today,
so let's go back to the current conditions.
Will pop everything up here
real quickly just to show you.
There is our system Nocturna.
All the watches and warnings on.
So you can kind of see him,
so that's our system.
You could see it back towards the West.
That's what we'll be tracking
all afternoon as that thing gets
closer and closer,
it's pretty straightforward.
That's what we're watching.
That's the line of severe storms,
and we'll have complete coverage
on WC&C on air online.
Make sure you grab the app today's
another day to be weather aware
the timings a little bit different.
Think 3456 o'clock instead of
11 noon 1/2 o'clock.
So probably about four hours,
maybe five hours later.
In some instances.