At a meeting of the G7, US president Joe Biden announced that he would greenlight
any effort by allies to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This was a significant
step forward in Ukraine's bid to get its hands on western military aircraft,
and one Russia is so afraid of, it immediately launched a new fear offensive on western media.
The move is reminiscent of Germany laying the ground work down for the transfer of Leopard
battle tanks to Ukraine- although significantly more transparent, given that Germany seemed
incredibly reluctant to allow anyone to send tanks to Ukraine. However, it's important
because much like Germany and the Leopard tank, the US controls the export license for the F-16.
Arm sales typically come with conditions that a receiving party will not attempt to export
purchased weapons to a third party without the permission of the supplier. This is to prevent
proliferation of very advanced weapon systems into conflicts that their manufacturers don't want them
to play a part in. In the US' case, it's blocked previous attempts to transfer advanced weapons
to various sides in conflicts, fearing it would either make the US look bad or be destabilizing.
The green light though means that now anybody who owns an F-16 has official US approval to ship them
to Ukraine without asking for permission. But, at least so far, the US won't be supplying any of its
own- and with good reason. With war in the Pacific against China brewing, the US is unlikely to want
to risk depleting its stockpile of modern fighter aircraft. Especially when said war will almost
entirely be a sea-air battle for US forces, and predicted to be a very high attrition conflict.
We've seen similar excuses from European powers as they transfer paltry numbers of tanks to Ukraine-
only they aren't facing the realistic threat of a war in their neighborhood. Everyone from
Germany to Portugal has claimed that they can only send small numbers of tanks because of their own
defense needs- as we've pointed out previously, unless the Russian develop teleportation
technology, there's no chance a T-72 is going to wind up in Puerta del Sol in Madrid. The ground
war that Europe thinks it needs its for is already being waged in Ukraine, and Russia's material
stockpiles are so low that the best weapon it has to invade the rest of Europe with is harsh words.
So who's going to be handing over F-16s to Ukraine, and why the sudden reversal
when just months ago President Biden said he wouldn't even consider it?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Baltic states have long been supportive of giving Ukraine access
to advanced western jets. Given that they are on the front line of any 'escalation' with Russia,
it's hardly surprising that they have a keen interest in seeing as many Russian
forces defeated on the battlefield as possible. Even less surprisingly, Poland has been eagerly
advocating for the transfer of F-16s, and has 48 of its own that might be up for grabs- although
this is unlikely until the nation receives a replacement, such as the F-35. Unlike Spain,
Germany, or France, Poland has a real reason to fear a war with Russia, given that it borders both
the Russian militarized enclave of Kaliningrad and Russian puppet state, Belarus. Even then,
given the vigorous support Poland has provided for Ukraine to date, we wouldn't be surprised
if the entire Polish air force suddenly defected and joined the Ukrainian air force.
France has also been supportive of the effort to transfer jets to Ukraine, though it has no F-16s
of its own. Instead, France operates the Rafael fighter and Dassault Mirages. It could likely
afford to donate a few air frames to Ukraine, but this would be counter productive. The donation
of the Challenger 2 battle tank to Ukraine was largely a symbolic act meant to break the German
deadlock and constant moving of the goal posts about the Leopard tank- the few tanks it did send
may not even see combat duty simply because of the difficulty in fulfilling the logistical needs of
now two different foreign fleets of tanks, on top of its own. But tanks aren't nearly as difficult
to maintain as fighter aircraft, which need on average about two hours of maintenance for every
hour of flight. Thus France has offered instead to help train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16s, either
by donating some of its pilots experienced with the plane or helping cover the costs of training.
Britain likewise has offered to help with the logistics and cost of training,
rather than donate any actual aircraft itself. Britain doesn't operate the F-16,
and had previously stated that it would take too long to train pilots on the Eurofighters it
does operate- arguably if the effort had started last summer, when it became clear that Ukraine
would not fold to Russian forces, fears of the Eurofighter arriving too late would be unfounded.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Germany supports the effort,
but doesn't have the training capacity or equipment to aid Ukraine with its bid to get
F-16s or any other platform. This is sadly true, with the German air force being in a
state of criminal disrepair, and unable to meet NATO air operations commitments.
Greece has a significant F-16 fleet of 150 planes, with 83 currently being upgraded to the latest
Block 72 standard. These would be perfect for Ukraine- except for one problem: Turkey. For
years, under Erdogan's leadership Turkey has been a thorn in NATO's side, and the NATO ally
has threatened open hostilities with its neighbor, and fellow NATO member, Greece. This not only puts
the entire alliance in a weird spot, but means that Greece is not going to be willing to give
up its F-16s unless someone like the US can make security guarantees in case of Turkish aggression.
With a new presidential election in Turkey though, there is hope that the relationship can be reset.
Belgium, Denmark, and Norway are all willing to send their own F-16s to Ukraine,
which puts up a possible 125 split between the three of them. However, all three countries are
unlikely to provide all their jets, so a more conservative estimate of about 20 air frames is
likely. However, as F-35s arrive in Europe, it'll open up more F-16s for transfer- the Netherlands
have 24 F-16s all slated to be replaced by F-35s by mid 2024. While we all hope the war won't last
that long, the odds against a victory anytime soon are slim to none. In a bit of good news though,
the Netherlands did cancel a sale of two dozen F-16s to Draken International,
and that can only mean one thing: Ukraine is getting dutch F-16s.
And that's why the US has stated that it wishes to create an effort for the long-term
supply of Ukraine's air force, signaling that this will not be a one-time donation,
but rather a long-term effort to bring Ukraine's air force up to western standards. The US isn't
just looking at keeping Ukraine's embattled air force in the fight for longer, it's actively
planning for the shape of the Ukrainian military in the post-war world. With confirmation by NATO
that Ukraine will join the alliance, the Ukrainian military will need to be rapidly westernized and
brought into conformity with NATO's militaries. Its position right on the Russian border makes
this a critical objective. Ensuring Ukraine is able to field a strong and credible enough
post-war deterrent will mean that Russia doesn't simply lick its wounds and reinvade a year later.
If Ukraine were to remain weak in the post-war peace, and be allowed to enter NATO, then it
would open up the opportunity for Russia to launch a fait accompli attack against Ukraine. This was
much feared in the lead up to the Ukraine war, although NATO planners feared it would happen in
the Baltics, with Russia surging forces across the border of a Baltic nation to take a few
villages and then simply digging in. In essence, Russia would be daring NATO to risk full-scale
war over a few meaningless kilometers of its most vulnerable members- and if NATO did not respond,
it would threaten breaking the alliance in two, or at least significantly undermining it.
This is why it's important for the US that Ukraine be supplied with increasing amounts
of western equipment, and its military brought up to NATO standards not just in training,
but in kit as well. A strong post-war Ukraine is the best way to guarantee peace with Russia.
Estimates on the number of F-16s Ukraine could be getting in the next few months vary,
with a dozen to two dozen or even as many as 50. However, there are some significant
hurdles to overcome as equipping Ukraine with new fighter jets isn't as simple as
just handing the keys over to shiny new jets. First, pilots must be trained. Every fighter
plane is different, but with some of the most experienced combat pilots in the world right now,
Ukraine is well suited to put its air force through an F-16 crash course. Right now the
US is already evaluating a small group of Ukrainian aviators to see just how fast
they may be able to bring them up to speed on the F-16. Rumors are that training on a
small scale has already been ongoing for months. As with most things in this war,
the US is keeping pretty tight lipped to deny Russia any vital intelligence.
Assuming an accelerated course though, it'll take a few months for Ukrainian pilots to
get the hang of their F-16s, meaning that they might not see combat until the fall.
Then there's a problem with the types of F-16s Ukraine might get. Not every F-16 is built the
same- one of the world's most prolific fighter jets, the F-16 has received a series of block
upgrades over the years to keep it competitive in a modern combat environment. However, not every
nation has kept up with these block upgrades, and that could be problematic for Ukraine's
pilots. Software incompatibility issues will also make it difficult for F-16s of different 'blocks'
to work together, and could pose a challenge to equipping F-16s with some of the more advanced,
and newer US weapons. Currently a task force is looking into compatibility issues and what is the
most efficient and best way to handle the issue- whether that's a crash modernization program or
making sure that entire squadrons are equipped with the same block F-16 to avoid conflict.
On-the-ground logistics need to be sorted as well. Ukraine has to be supplied with
a number of replacement parts, and its mechanics also put through training to keep
F-16s in fighting shape. As we mentioned earlier, combat jets are incredibly complicated machines-
though the F-16 is specifically designed to require little maintenance and work from a
very austere environment. Originally, the F-16 was designed to be a cheap, easily mass-produced
frontline fighter that could fly from damaged air bases in a worst case Cold War scenario
fight against the Soviet Union. It's not the best fighter in the world, but it's a very good one,
and it's rugged to boot- making it possibly the best choice for Ukraine right now.
But if the west wants to arm Ukraine quickly, they shouldn't be turning to European powers
to donate their F-16s, because the largest F-16 fleets in the world aren't in Europe- they're in
the middle east. After the United States, Israel, Turkey, and Egypt respectively operate the second,
third, and fourth largest F-16 fleets in the world. Israel has an estimated 175 F-16s and
an additional 50 for training, and is no doubt currently feeling significant
pressure to start thinking about donating some of them. Given its regional headaches though,
this is incredibly unlikely- unless the US is ready to make some significant security
guarantees. This will inevitably put it into conflict with Iran, not anything new,
but adding another potential headache that the US can currently ill afford.
In the 2010s Israel had a deal to sell Croatia 12 of its F-16s for $500 million. However,
the US blocked the deal as Israel had done significant equipment upgrades to the combat jets,
and the US feared that those sensitive components would fall into the wrong hands- despite Croatia
being a NATO member. Given that any donated F-16s have a very high chance of being shot down,
and their wreckage captured by Russia, the US would likely demand that the equipment
upgrades are stripped off the jets before they are transferred to Ukraine. Though ultimately,
Israel's reluctance to provide significant military equipment means that it's unlikely
to donate its F-16s. In 2022, Israel refused to provide Ukraine with outdated MIM-23 Hawk
air defense missiles, built by the US. Sadly, Israel finds itself in a delicate situation
with Russia- Russia allows it to carry out air strikes against asymmetric threats in Syria,
and in exchange Israel isn't comfortable upsetting that relationship by providing arms to Ukraine.
Turkey meanwhile has 270 F-16s, and is in the middle of modernizing old
Block 30 models to the latest standard. In October 2021, it placed an order for 40 new
modern F-16s along with modernization kits for an additional 79 air frames. However,
the F-16 is the backbone of Turkish air defense, and there is still significant bad blood between
Turkey and the US over America's decision to kick Turkey out of the F-35 program. Granted,
the move was brought on by Turkey purchasing Russian S-400 air defense systems after the
US warned that Russia could use the system to gather data on the F-35. To deny Russia the
opportunity to sniff out any F-35 secrets, the US kicked Ankara out of the program altogether.
Now Turkey is attempting to build its own 5th generation aircraft with the TF-X Kaan,
and is unlikely to give up any of its F-16s until its new fighter is operational.
Egypt also has a significant fleet, with 220 F-16s. However, Egypt maintains strong ties to
Russia which will likely prevent it from providing any aircraft. The country already refused to
donate or sell any of the Migs it bought in the 2010s, and remains angry at the US over its
refusal to sell it the F-15. Yet there were signs that this could change even before the Ukraine
war started, so perhaps the US could negotiate Egyptian F-16s in exchange for brand new F-15s.
After these nations, modest fleets remain in the Middle East- but nobody is very incentivized
to part ways with any of its air frames. Jordan's fleet of 40+ air frames are all
older models and make up a large part of its air force. With Iran having everyone on edge,
it's unlikely to want to give up any of its aircraft and even if it did, it likely wouldn't
be worth it. The United Arab Emirates has a fleet of 80 Block 60 F-16s- which when they were bought
in the 1990s were actually more modern than those flown by the US Air Force. However,
the UAE is attempting to negotiate a political high wire act, as it courts Russia and China
while trying to maintain its historic relations with the US. Given that neither China nor Russia
could defend the nation from Iranian hostility, the US does have a bargaining chip it could use-
albeit at the cost of greatly angering the UAE. Which might just be worth it. After withdrawing
from a deal to by 50 F-35s in 2021 however, the UAE is unlikely to part with any of its jets.
In the end, Ukraine is unlikely to receive more than a modest force of F-16s, likely all provided
by the West. However, given the Russian aerospace force's horrible record in Ukraine,
these F-16s will prove a significant threat to continued Russian air operations, especially if
equipped with long range air to air missiles. But there's an even more important reason to
supply Ukraine with F-16s, and one that could change the course of the war if not addressed.
Ukraine's air defenses are currently a patchwork of its native, Soviet era systems,
and a slowly growing supply of modern western batteries. However, the backbone of its air
defenses remains Soviet S-300s and their like, and the world is quite literally running out of
available inventory of missiles for these legacy systems. Both Ukraine's allies and Russia have
been scouring the world for nations willing to give up their inventories, and those stockpiles
are beginning to run dry. Russia can build new missiles, while the west has investigated the
possibility of restarting old Soviet factories in former eastern bloc nations. America is also
brainstorming possible ways of making its own air defense missiles compatible with Ukraine's
soviet launchers. There's some precedent for this as US engineers figured out how to hack Ukraine's
Migs so they could operate the US-made High speed anti-radiation missile, or HARM. However,
the hack did not allow its Mig mothership to employ the missile in its full effectiveness.
F-16s for Ukraine are thus becoming imperative,
especially as Ukraine recently announced that it likely only had a few months of air defense
missiles left. Failing to plug this growing gap would be tragic, given that Ukraine today
is intercepting an average of 95% of cruise and stand-off attacks launched by Russia.
But F-16s are also necessary because Russia has recently begun deploying
glide bombs. These long-range stand-off weapons are exactly what they sound like:
bombs with deployable wings. The US has been using them for decades, and Russia has started to field
them in significant quantities. Precision is still poor, as is to be expected of Russia's
relatively tech-poor combat platforms, but these bombs are still a significant threat to Ukrainian
civilians. And the worst part is that most air defenses simply can't protect from them.
This is why Ukraine needs fighter jets, as the only way to protect from glide bomb attack is
to keep their launch platforms under threat and at range. This is where the F-16 would shine,
though only if equipped with long range air to air weapons such as the AIM 120.
Russia's ground based air defenses are still significant in number,
and F-16s won't be able to operate close to the front lines for long.
Inevitably, Ukraine will get its F-16s. How many,
from where, and their ultimate impact on the war though remain unknown.
Now check out deadly weapons the US is sending to Ukraine, or click this other video instead!