there's been an escalating conflict on
the edge of europe
artillery attacks air strikes fighter
jets coming down
civilian buildings being damaged and
over a hundred killed
a historic dispute between azerbaijan
and armenia has reignited
and a watching world is asking can
full-scale war
be avoided russia the u.s and france are
calling for an immediate ceasefire
but they know ceasefire or not
fundamentally this is being driven
by a long-standing dispute that was
never resolved and
this is why here on the map you can see
armenia to the west
azerbaijan to the east both were part of
the soviet union before it disintegrated
in the early 90s
and right where we see the two meet is
an enclave called nagorno-karabakh
in the eyes of the international
community it's part of azerbaijan
but its population is now almost
entirely ethnic armenian
in the late 80s and early 90s armenia
and azerbaijan
fought a war over nagorno-powerback and
despite the un calling on armenia to
withdraw its troops
by 1994 azerbaijan had lost
nagorno-karabakh declared independence
and became part of armenia in
orbit name so 26 years on
why is the escalation happening now well
the language has hardened
here's azerbaijan's president we only
have one condition he says
armenian armed forces must
unconditionally fully and immediately
leave our lands
armenia has no intention of agreeing
here's his president
what they are trying to do is to force
armenians out of that
of the land that they historically lived
even before the azerbaijan as
a as a republic existed so
one in my vocabulary is called ethnic
cleansing
and this intensification can be
explained by looking internally
and externally first domestic politics
in armenia this has been happening
unfortunately armenian prime minister i
i think has been forced by his own
domestic politics
to back away from the framework
agreement that had been negotiated for
years between his country and azerbaijan
and then this is the situation in
azerbaijan
with the social problems with the
falling price of oil
with the reforms that are needed in the
economy the war probably is the best
possible outcome to make sure that
public
rallies around the leader as well as
that azerbaijan's booming oil sector has
given it added income
and influence and if domestic politics
is one vital factor
the differing approaches of turkey and
russia
is another turkey has been vociferous in
its support of azerbaijan
here's his president
the path to a lasting peace requires the
withdrawal of armenians from
every inch of aziri land they are
occupying
the constant efforts to slander turkey
will not save the armenian government
and this is part of a broader pattern
turkey's willingness to oppose major
powers is on show from libya
to northern syria to gas drilling in the
eastern med to migration into europe
and now azerbaijan too in this case
france is unimpressed accusing turkey of
war-like messages which have
removed azerbaijan's inhibitions and
certainly
azerbaijan has been emboldened by
turkey's support
equally important as reported by reuters
here
has been russia seeking to mediate
rather than overtly taking sides and
given russia has a military base in
armenia that too will embolden
azerbaijan
put all of those factors together and
whatever the rights and wrongs you
arrive
at a moment of high risk muhammad alib
of michigan state university argues
there are too many external fingers in
this caucus pie
it has the potential to turn into a
major regional conflict
and there's one more worrying dimension
to this today france has confirmed
jihadist fighters from syria
have been located in nagorno-karabakh as
president macron puts it
this is a very serious new fact which
changes the situation
syria itself provides evidence of the
catastrophic consequences of a local
conflict becoming a far greater proxy
battle
france and others are desperate to avoid
this here
for all of these reasons this has
already become about stopping the
conflict now
and stopping its return the first part
appears likely
if russia france and the u.s want to
cease fire well you wouldn't bet against
it
but that doesn't resolve the core issue
that the world considers
nagorno-karabakh part of azerbaijan
and yet armenia controls it if anything
good comes of this ugly escalation
it will be that the search for a lasting
resolution is given the extra urgency
it needs
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