now britain is struggling with the
economic impact of the coronavirus
pandemic a major supermarket jane
just announced they'll start rationing
items amid fears of
second wave panic buying but things
could get even worse
after a no deal brexit the british
retail consortium warns that
tariffs would push up prices hitting
shoppers
and retailers alike that's if goods
actually arrive in the uk
long lines at the harbour of dover and
the euro tunnel
the british government fears that trucks
will wait up to two days in traffic jams
to get through customs clearance
it believes there will be a backup of
7000 hdvs
or heavy goods vehicles waiting to cross
into the eu
from kent that's the worst case scenario
that london
is currently grappling with
the scenario builds on an estimate that
only 50 to 70 percent of large
businesses and just 20 to 40 percent of
small and medium-sized enterprises
would be ready for the strict
application of new eu requirements
in those circumstances that could mean
that only between 30 and 60
of laden hgvs would arrive at the border
with the necessary formalities completed
for the goods on board they therefore be
turned back
by the french border authorities
clogging the dover to cali crossing
one reason why businesses are so poorly
prepared is the coronavirus pandemic
the companies have been focusing on
coping with the consequences of the
lockdown
a think tank with economists from
london's kings college
has concluded that a no deal brexit
could have three times the negative
impact
on the british economy as the
coronavirus the consequences of the
pandemic
may be more drastic in the short term
but in the long term
a no deal brexit would leave deeper
scars
well right now everything points towards
a no deal brexit especially after
british prime minister boris johnson
decided to step
back on parts of the withdrawal
agreement which was the basis for trade
negotiations
and which johnson himself signed only
last year
for more i'm joined by craig erlum
senior market analyst at
wonder in london craig good to have you
with us
well the london stock exchange modeling
has put the long term economic hit from
a no deal brexit at
eight percent of gdp at the same time jp
morgan is moving
200 billion euros from london to
frankfurt
citing brexit as a reason why would
london now
seemingly push for a no deal brexit
in all honesty i don't think london is
pushing for a no deal brexit i think
they believe the threat of no deal
breaks it has to be on the table in
order to
try and get some more favorable
negotiating terms whether that's
successful
i will have to wait and see later on
this year
but i don't think anyone or i don't
think most people at this stage really
want no no deal brexit
in particular business and the
government will be all too aware of that
i think the risk from no deal brexit
stems from the government backing itself
into a corner
and potentially leaving itself with no
other alternative
right uh craig you mentioned you
mentioned is like sort of this this
threat needs to be on the table in order
to get more favorable terms
uh i know that the brexit negotiations
and everything has been going on now for
four years nevertheless
do jog our memory what is london
actually after
well i think that i mean there's a
number of points still on the table i
think fishing rights is still a
contentious issue
um in these negotiations there is also
about state aid
another issue in these negotiations i
think what london is
primarily fighting for is the the
ability to effectively self-rule and is
the ability to make these decisions
itself
we've got to remember this is not a
conservative government that necessarily
backs state aid
to any significant degree but the
flexibility to allow itself to
have the freedom to go down that route
for example
in the future i think is an important uh
negotiating ploy
as far as this government is concerned
but like say i think we all we have to
see this through the prism of a
negotiation what the government
says it wants now and what it ultimately
wants its end goal to be
maybe two entirely different things you
set your stall out here and here
with the idea that hopefully you'll end
up somewhere in between and i think the
as far as the uk government is concerned
having no deal breaks as an option on
the table
an extremely unfavorable outcome as far
as both sides are concerned particularly
here in the uk
then that potentially moves that line
from here slightly
uh closer towards your favor again
whether that actually turns out to be
true is an entirely different thing
well well so while while britain or
while london is
uh playing such games that's actually a
quote from
some european uh policymakers saying
britain should stop playing such games
but while this is happening obviously
business doesn't quite know
how to how to deal with what's coming or
not coming and now the british
government actually says that
british small and medium-sized
enterprises failed
to adequately prepare for brexit what
exactly are they supposed to do
oh yeah this this this again is a really
uh strange point from michael gove
um you can understand if five percent of
businesses were unprepared if 10
of businesses were unprepared then you
could say that this is solely the blame
of these businesses because the
guidelines are clearly clear enough that
90 percent of the businesses
feel fully prepared if 75 of businesses
are unprepared then this is
ultimately the government that is to
blame whether that is because they've
been
they haven't they've like clarity in
terms of their guidelines for how
businesses
must prepare maybe it's a cost issue and
especially when you're looking at smes
they just don't have the ability
to be able to prepare because they don't
have the cash available in order to
invest in the way that
large businesses are able to ultimately
if we get to the end of this year and 75
percent of smes
are going to be unprepared for a brexit
hard brexit no deal brexit
then the government is ultimately to
blame because it means that a they've
promised
that this is going to be an extremely
straightforward process the the prospect
of lorries cueing
uh dover is all scaremongering uh
and that businesses will be absolutely
fine they can't say this one minute
and then a couple of months before no
deal or a hard deal brexit
say that businesses are unprepared to
this scale and it's all their fault
these two things just don't add up
all right just very very briefly craig
on a scale from 1 to 10
what are the chances that we will see a
deal by the end of the year
i've been an eternal optimist throughout
this i still see it seven eight out of
ten but i will say that uh i i will say
that this is probably the most
pessimistic i've been
uh now for the last four years i think
it's in everyone's interest
okay great girl i'm in london thank you
so much
thank you