Judy: The Russian military is
beginning to refocus its assault
on eastern Ukraine and Russia's
president, vitamin Putin, has
named named an overall military
commander for the war, one with
a resume notable of killing
civilians and wreaking wholesale
destruction in Syria.
We begin by looking at this
change in strategy.
Here's Nick schifrin.
Nick: In southeastern Ukraine,
Russian forces are moving into
position.
Russia says it is targeting
newly arrived Ukrainian air
defense systems.
The mayor said 10,000 civilians
have been killed, Russia is
deploying recently recruited
conscripts.
>> What can I say?
They called me up to go to war.
Nick: Satellite images show what
a senior U.S. Defense official
says is an 8-mile long resupport
and resupply mission into
donetsk and luhansk, where
Russians have occupied territory
since 2014.
That convoy is moving through
velykyi burluk toward izyum and
further south, to reinforce
Russians fighting in the donbas,
and try and connect with
territory they occupy as far
west as kherson.
>> This next week will be
just as tense.
Russian troops will move to even
larger operations in the east of
our state.
They can use even more missiles
against us,
but we are preparing for their
actions.
Nick: Those actions in the east
will be led by general Alexander
dvornikov, the first commander
named to oversee the war in
Ukraine.
He led Russia's campaign of
scorched Earth in Syria, using
starvation and indiscriminate
targeting of residential
neighborhoods, to destroy
Syrians ability to resist.
>> We are probably turning
another page in the same book.
Of Russian brutality.
Nick: While Russia's focus will
be on the east, U.S. Officials
say there is no evidence that
Vladimir Putin has given up on
his goal to overthrow Kyiv.
To discuss this next phase of
the war, we turn as we often do
to Michael Kaufman, research
program director in the Russian
studies program at the center
for naval analyses.
Welcome back to the newshour.
30,000 feet is phase one of this
war over and we are waiting for
face to to begin?
Michael: I think the second
phase is now beginning.
Although it is unclear whether
Russian leaders will wait to
build up, reorganize forces,
they take big losses around Kyiv
and other areas.
They are trying to resupply,
trying to reorganize.
Are they going to send them in
piecemeal and start this
campaign from the donbass?
Or will they wait to build up?
You have seen the Russian
military trying to make
adjustments more at that level,
including appointing the
commander.
It is fair to say this is
probably the end of the
beginning and you are seeing a
second chapter in this war.
Nick: In terms of how the next
phase, the next chapter will
look like, the foreign minister
said it would look like world
War II thousands of tanks,
planes and artillery's.
Senior defense official said it
would be "A knife fight."
How will this phase differ from
the first phase?
Michael: I think in the first
phase, you saw a very diffuse
Russian military strategy trying
to go after too many objectives.
Heavy urban fighting where they
were checkmated by Ukrainian
forces.
And a spread Russian effort.
You are going to see a
concentration on one front.
I think you are looking at a
battle where the Russian
military is probably going to
concentrate forces against a
sizable amount of Ukrainian
units defending donbass, and
they will likely leverage
firepower and forward assaults.
Basically squeezing at the
frontal attacks and trying to
push them out of donbass.
How this pans out is very much
in question.
The Russian military has been
unsuccessful thus far.
And Ukrainian military written
date -- retains a lot.
Nick: As you say, the Ukrainian
military retains those
advantages.
Russia has struggled to make
this a united front.
Is there any sign that it has
learned from its mistakes,
including with the naming of
this new commander?
Michael: Absolutely.
We see a reorganization of the
rough and -- Russian effort.
And the main Russian problem at
this stage is manpower.
They have a lot of equipment.
They don't have the forces.
They have taken substantial
losses and they don't have
manpower reserves because they
are not conducting that.
On the other side, the Ukrainian
military has all of the
advantages of manpower and
preserves, and strong levels of
morale, where what they like his
equipment and ammunition.
The battle for donbass may not
be a fast fight.
It may be longer with heavy use
of artillery and firepower.
Nick: The U.S. Has continued to
send antitank weapons, including
javelins, and has facilitated
sending tanks into Ukraine.
Ukraine says it needs more and
it needs faster -- needs more
faster.
Are Ukraine's partners sending
enough weapons in quickly enough
to make a difference in the next
phase?
Michael: It looks like European
countries have started to shift
the equipment they are likely to
send to Ukraine.
Ukraine needs armor.
It needs infantry fighting
vehicles.
In needs artillery.
It needs a conventional kit,
larger types of capabilities.
Kind that can equip their
reserves.
They have a lot of manpower.
If they are going to go on the
offensive, they will not be able
to do it with antitank guided
missiles or other types of
personnel weapons.
You see increasing willingness
by European countries to send
that weaponry.
It is unclear if the volumes
will be sufficient, or if it is
going to make a difference in
this current part of the world.
Nick: In the time we have left,
it seems like there is two
variables in the next phase.
Will Russia wait to capture
Mario bull before expanding its
operation in the southeast?
Does Russia have a deadline, may
9, when it celebrates the
anniversary of victory of world
War II?
Do we know the answers to those
questions yet?
Michael: I'm not sure we do on
the second.
I'm sure politically, they would
like to declare victory if they
can.
If they don't make that date, it
does not mean the war is going
to stop or the battle of donbass
will be suspended.
On the first one, it is clear
they are going to push from the
north.
And likely the southern part of
the campaign may wait until they
are able to achieve that.
They would like it to be the
southern axis of advance.
It does look like they have
several operational directives,
trying to attack Ukrainian
forces in the northern part of
donbass, without waiting for the
southern fights to finish.