The saga of the Chinese spy balloon hovering over the United States and its subsequent
destruction by the United States has dominated media coverage over the past few days.
It had already been a tense few months.
Just before the balloon standoff, the United States took a significant step to increase
its military presence on the Chinese mainland.
The United States and the Philippines have agreed to expand American military presence
in the Philippines by authorizing the construction of four more bases.
This was the most recent step in a series of preparations made by the United States
for the possibility of a conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific region.
As tensions between the two countries continue to rise, astronomers now claim that a Chinese
satellite blasted green laser beams over Hawaii.
Could a conflict break out between the two superpowers, and what impact would that have
on the world?
To find out how things are becoming worse between the United States and China, you'll
want to stay tuned until the very end of this video.
The year 2022 was arguably the most volatile and disruptive in international politics since
the 1989 revolutions.
It was volatile due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Taiwan dispute, but it was
transformative in the manner the US recognized China as a superpower rival.
The Biden administration not only highlighted China as its most significant security threat
in its October National Security Strategy, but also announced categorically that the
post-Cold War era is over.
If the United States' unipolar power position was the defining feature of the post-Cold
War era, the change to a bipolar power structure between the United States and China will form
a new international order.
Ultimately, it will be up to individual leaders to decide whether or not to go to war.
To better comprehend how the new bipolar age can emerge, we must first examine its structure:
the balance of power, the origin of the new system, and the geographical environment.
The US-China rivalry is unique in many respects, and its nature provides us with important
information about the new world order, its stability, and the role that statesmanship
might play.
In terms of power balance, the US-China rivalry is reminiscent of the Cold War, another antagonism
between two superpowers.
This is why former Obama administration Asia-Pacific advisor Evan Medeiros dubbed the November
meeting in Bali, Indonesia, between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping
"the first superpower summit of Cold War Version 2.0."
This has aroused fears, notably in Europe, about the reemergence of opposing blocs, as
well as among developing countries about being caught in the middle.
However, the emerging US-China bipolarity is a structural reality that cannot be avoided.
The gap with the US has been reduced as a result of several decades of Chinese economic
and military expansion.
Furthermore, a bipolar power structure is thought to be more stable than a multipolar
one—so leaders like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has advocated for a multipolar
order, should be careful what they wish for.
Despite arms races and difficult incidents, the US-Soviet competition was marked by a
high degree of stability and the absence of direct armed conflict between the two superpowers.
That is why, according to historian John Lewis Gaddis, the Cold War era was known as the
"long peace."
However, not all bipolar systems are equally stable.
There are compelling grounds to believe that the bipolar rivalry between the United States
and China will render the new era less stable than the Cold War.
And, as structural stability deteriorates, the necessity for statesmanship and guardrails
to control the system grows.
However, returning to the recent events, how could it worsen relations between the two
superpowers?
Astronomers have found that a Chinese satellite blasted green laser beams over the state of
Hawaii, at a time when tensions between Beijing and Washington are high following the downing
of multiple foreign objects, including a Chinese surveillance balloon, over the US in recent
days.
On January 28, scientists at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) captured
the mysterious light beams on video using its Subaru-Asahi Star Camera on Mauna Kea.
Footage from the event shows green laser light shooting across the gloomy sky over Maunakea,
Hawaii.
The lights were thought to be from a NASA remote-sensing altimeter satellite at the
time, according to the space agency.
However, on February 6, NAOJ reversed its position and stated that the lights were 'likely'
from the Chinese satellite Daqi-1/AEMS.
NASA experts simulated the course of satellites with comparable instruments and discovered
that it was, in fact, the Chinese satellite.
According to two analysts who spoke to the news channel KHON, the satellite is not being
used to spy on the US because it is a craft that governments all around the world are
aware of.
However, the purpose of the green laser beams remains a mystery.
According to Roy Gal of the University of Hawaii Institute of Astronomy, it is most
likely measuring environmental pollutants.
“It has many different instruments on it…
Some kind of topographical mapping or they’re also used for measuring stuff in Earth’s
atmosphere, and I think that’s what it is, environmental measurement satellite,” he
said.
Former chief of staff of Marine Forces Pacific Ray L’Heureux cast doubts on this theory
questioning “why the Chinese – who are probably some of the most prolific polluters
on the planet – would be collecting data on pollutants on this side of the Pacific”.
Whatever its goal, the event comes at a time when tensions between China and the United
States have been rising, ever since a Chinese surveillance balloon was detected above Montana
earlier this month.
That balloon was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on February 4 and is currently
being recovered from the Atlantic Ocean for analysis by the Pentagon.
China maintains that the balloon was a meteorological balloon that blew off course and was not used
for surveillance.
The following weekend, three more unidentified flying objects were seen in US and Canadian
airspace and shot down over Alaska, Canada, and Lake Huron in Michigan.
'Canadian and US aircraft were scrambled, and a US F-22 successfully fired at the object,'
stated Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The Pentagon claims that it cannot determine the objects' intended purpose.
According to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, the object was around the size
of a car - significantly smaller than the first spy balloon, which was about the size
of three buses.
The three downed objects over the weekend have not yet been linked to China.
Later, General Glen VanHerck of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad)
and Northern Command stated that defense officials are seeking to identify the latest "objects"
and are not ruling anything out, including UFOs, at this time.
“We’re calling them objects, not balloons, for a reason,” he said.
However, if these objects are of Chinese origin, and China is now launching laser beams as
a warning, what would happen if war broke out between the two nations?
Well, it is going to be devastating for not just these two countries, but the whole world.
The rivalry between the United States and China is characterized by an unstable power
transition dynamic.
When a growing power attempts to supplant a declining hegemon, there is a serious risk
of major war—consider the rising German Empire seeking for its "place" in the years
preceding up to World War I.
This relationship did not exist during the Cold War: both the United States and the Soviet
Union emerged as superpowers from the ruins of World War II and were military rivals from
the outset.
The current situation is different, with China slowly catching up to the US.
Furthermore, China's potential as a superpower is bigger than the Soviet Union's has ever
been.
Moreover, because China's military is still inferior at this time, there is less room
for statesmanship in negotiating arms control accords; China is unwilling to limit military
expansion, which would cement its inferior status.
While the People's Liberation Army's budget has been constantly increasing, the PLA — which
comprises all forces — remains mostly untested.
Nonetheless, Washington should aim to keep the PLA untested.
War between the United States and China would be a disaster that must be avoided.
To achieve and maintain a liberal society, violence is sometimes necessary.
War, on the other hand, is the single most destructive human activity, with a lengthy
history of undermining and eventually destroying liberal countries.
Both World Wars unleashed and spread authoritarian and totalitarian forces throughout the world.
According to recent claims, China may already have more nuclear warheads on its intercontinental
ballistic missiles than the United States.
However, in terms of overall nuclear inventory (including warheads deployed on intercontinental
ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers, as well as
dormant nuclear warheads), China's nuclear arsenal remains minimal in comparison to the
US.
Unlike the Cold War, the major battlefield of the US-China military rivalry is maritime,
which is fundamentally less stable and more vulnerable to a limited war.
Because of the Cold War's primary focus on the European land stage, the tactic of heavy
retaliation emerged, effectively discouraging any attempt to cross the fixed line dividing
Europe.
The use of military action in Asian waters by the two superpowers is less likely to constitute
an existential threat to either state or risk a nuclear war.
China may use nuclear weapons if invaded, but Chinese authorities are far less inclined
to risk all-out war with the US if any of their ships are destroyed.
This raises the prospect of a limited conflict in Asian waters, where the possibilities of
a large escalation are fewer than in Europe.
Even a modest naval conflict between two superpowers, however, may have disastrous effects for regional
stability and the global economy.
The relentless march of globalization over more than three decades, as well as China
and the United States' current high level of interdependence, are fooling us.
They persuade us that major power rivalry in the twenty-first century is largely steady
and manageable.
A dynamic power transition, an intrinsically less stable naval rivalry, Taiwan as a hotspot,
new space and cyber technologies, and the hazards associated with economic interdependence,
however, suggest that the basis of the US-China rivalry may be more vulnerable than we think.
Let us know what you think about the rising tensions between the United States and China
in the comments section below.