>>>
>>> AND
>>> AND WELCOME BACK TO FLASHPOINT WHERE WE ARE MAKING OUR PRODUCTIONS FOR THE NEW
YEAR.
HAPPY NEW YEAR, BY THE WAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION, WHO WILL
BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR
PRESIDENT? AT ONE POINT IT WAS
25 PEOPLE IN THE RACE, NOW DOWN
TO 15, MAYBE LESS.
JOE BIDEN, ELIZABETH WARREN,
BERNIE SANDERS, PETE BUTTIGIEG
SEEM TO BE THE TOP FOUR
CONTENDERS, EMPHASIS ON SAME.
THE DEMOCRATIC AND IOWA CAUCUSES
LESSON A MONTH AWAY, SOUTH
CAROLINA IS FIRST IN THE SOUTH
PRIMARY, FEBRUARY 29.
THE BIG ENCHILADA, SUPER
TUESDAY, MARCH 3, A BUNCH OF
STATES INCLUDING NORTH CAROLINA.
I WILL START WITH YOU, YOUR
PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT TWO
MONTHS WILL PLAY OUT.
>> YOU KNOW, THESE PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARIES TEND TO BE PEAKS AND
VALLEYS FOR A VARIETY OF
CANDIDATES.
I THINK THE SAFE BET IS STILL
JOE BIDEN WILL LIKELY BE THE
NOMINEE.
BUT ONCE IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
SETTLED ON THE TOP TIER, THE
TRUE CANDIDATES, THEN YOU START
TO GET A REAL MIX AS TO WHERE
CANDIDATE'S STRENGTHS LIE, WHO
GETS MOMENTUM, THE EARLY PUSH
AND WHERE DOES THE MONEY GO TO
SUPPORT THESE KINDS OF
CANDIDATES?
I'M STILL THINKING JOE BIDEN IS
THE LIKELY CANDIDATE, BUT IN
THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT, WHO
KNOWS.
>> YOU STILL THINK BIDEN?
>> I STILL THINK BIDEN.
I LOOK BACK AT THE REPUBLICANS
AND THE REPUBLICANS FLAVOR OF
THE WEEK.
WE HAVE THE MOMENTUM, PEOPLE
STARTED TO DROP OUT.
WHAT IS INTERESTING IS IN
NOVEMBER, LATE NOVEMBER OF 2008,
RUDY GIULIANI WAS THE LEADER
AND WE SEE HOW THAT WORKED OUT.
I THINK IT WILL LOOK AT MONEY,
AND SOMETIMES TRY TO EXPLAIN
SAY WHY THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN
VOTE IS NOT BEHIND BUTTIGIEG,
IT IS BECAUSE THEY LIKE
WRITING.
SOME OF IT IS BECAUSE THEY LIKE
SOMEONE ELSE, EVEN IF THEY LIKE
SOMEONE JUST AS MUCH BUT A
LITTLE BIT BETTER.
I THINK YOU WILL LOOK AT WHEN
THEY START TO DROP OUT, WHO
STARTS TO DROP OUT AND WHY THEY
DROP OUT.
WE LOOKED AT KAMALA HARRIS, IT
HAS BEEN MONEY, HER CAMPAIGN.
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND, MY TIME HAS
NOT COME.
BETO O'ROURKE, MY TIME HAS
NOT,.
I THINK IT WILL BE DECIDED
BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY.
CLEARLY, I DON'T THINK ANYONE
CAN SAY IT WILL STILL BE A FIVE
OR SIX PERSON RACE AFTER THAT
POINT.
>> THE TALKSHOW AT THE DESK, I
WOULD ASK YOU, IS IT DECIDED BY
THE TIME IT GETS TO SOUTH
CAROLINA?
>> YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER WHEN IT
COMES TO BIDEN, HE HAS ONE HUGE
FOE HE HAS TO FACE, WHO WAS
JUST ON THE VERGE OF TAKING
BIDEN DOWN.
AND THAT ENEMIES NAME IS JOE
BIDEN.
>> WHAT DID I TELL YOU?
>> NO ONE CAN TAKE DOWN JOE
BIDEN LIKE JOE BIDEN.
THAT SAID, AFTER THAT
IMPEACHMENT, DEMOCRATS WILL SEE
HIM AS THE GUY TRUMP WAS AFRAID
OF, THAT WILL COME UP.
SOME FOLKS WILL SAY HAS THIS
WEAKENED BIDEN?
DEMOCRATS WILL SAY CLEARLY THIS
IS WHO TRUMP WAS AFRAID OF.
NOW, BIDEN AS WE KNOW HAS THE
ABILITY TO STICK HIS FOOT IN
HIS MOUTH.
BEFORE HE WAS OBAMA'S EIGHT
YOUR BACKUP MAN, WHO FAITHFULLY
SAID, HE IS CLEAN, ARTICULATE.
HE SAID INSULTING THINGS, HE
CAN DO THAT AGAIN.
HE WILL DO THAT AGAIN.
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS, WHAT
IMPACT WILL IT HAVE?
WHEN IT COMES TO SOUTH CAROLINA,
HERE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART, AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS
VOTE IN SOUTH CAROLINA ON TWO
THINGS, NUMBER ONE IS TRUST.
THEY HAVE TO KNOW A CANDIDATE,
BELIEVE IN HIM.
OUR LAST POLL SHOWED FOR MORE
THAN WHITE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
LIKELY WILL SAY I WILL VOTE FOR
SOMEONE WHO HAS SIMILAR VIEWS
AS ME, SOMEONE THEY TRUST.
BEING OBAMA'S VICE PRESIDENT
FOR EIGHT YEARS BUILD THAT
TRUST.
IT IS NOT THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN
VOTERS WON'T VOTE FOR BUTTIGIEG
BECAUSE HE IS GAY.
THAT IS NOT IT, MUCH STRONGER
AND DEEPER AND COMPLICATED THAN
THAT.
SECOND, AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS
IN THE SOUTH AND NATIONWIDE, WE
CALL IT LINKED FATE, WHAT IS
GOOD FOR EACH OF US IS GOOD FOR
ALL OF US, WHAT IS GOOD FOR ALL
OF US IS GOOD FOR EACH OF US.
EVER SINCE THE NATIONAL, THE
SOUTHERN WAY, THE NATIONAL
DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN THE 60s
STARTED PUSHING CIVIL RIGHTS
AND VOTING RIGHTS, AFRICAN
AMERICANS HAVE BEEN VOTING 90 %
DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE THAT IS HOW
THEY MOVED AHEAD SINCE THE 60s.
WE KNOW THAT IS STILL TRUE
BECAUSE AFRICAN-AMERICANS VOTE
90 % WITH ONE PARTY.
YOU COMBINE THOSE TWO THINGS,
TRUST AND LINKED FATE, IT WILL
BE VERY HARD TO UNDERMINE JOE
BIDEN COMING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
. IT WILL TAKE, BIDEN COULD
LOSE IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
COME INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND
TAKE IT.
HE WILL HAVE TO BE THROUGH IT
COMPLETELY TO MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE.
>> CAN SOMEONE ELSE BEAT HIM,
CAN HE STILL WIN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOMEONE ELSE BEAT