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Why does Vladimir Putin do what he does? From Syria to Ukraine,
Putin’s violent and destabilizing actions are constantly making international headlines– but
his motivations are something of a puzzle. But one explanation for Putin’s seemingly
erratic behavior actually has to do with the land of Russia itself. Why? Because Russia’s
geography is its own worst enemy. Every Russian leader has tried to deal with this issue in one
way or another– with most of them resorting to using violence. For Putin, Russia’s geography is
also a major problem, one he’s not about to give up on any time soon. But where exactly
does that problem come from? And what does its long history tell us about the Russia of today?
Russia’s geography curse is as old as the country itself. It dates back to the 9th century,
when a federation of East Slavic tribes called the Kievan Rus were established in
what is today Ukraine. Based around the city of Kiev, the Rus were the first to establish
a distinct cultural identity that would later become Russian. But by the 1200s,
geography was already becoming a problem. The flat planes around Kyiv were easy to march an
army across, allowing the area to be overrun by the Mongol Empire. Following the Mongol conquest,
the early Russian civilization relocated North, establishing the Grand Principality of Moscow.
But again, geography proved to be an issue. Moscow is even less defensible than Kyiv,
with no mountains or deserts and few rivers surrounding the capital. Recognition of this
weakness set the stage for a new Russian policy: that the best defense is a strong offense.
This strategy was used constantly during the reign of Russia’s first tsar, Ivan the Terrible. While
his grandfather had modestly expanded Russian territory, Ivan took it to a new level– putting
into practice a style of foreign policy still around in Putin’s Russia. After consolidating
his support at home, Ivan conquered territory east to the Ural mountains, south to the Caspian and
Black Seas, and north to the Arctic Circle. This gave him access to two important bodies of water,
as well as the rugged Caucasus mountains. These provided a natural barrier against invasions
from the east, as well as access to ports that would not freeze during winter. Ivan took it a
step further by creating a military base in Chechnya, creating a perfect defense against
powerful enemies like the Mongols, Ottomans, or Persians. His strategy of expansion was
seen by later Russian leaders as a success, as it provided a buffer zone for the growing country.
Nobody could attack Moscow from the arctic or over the Ural Mountains, and now in the south,
Russian troops had an easily defensible position. But this still left the western side of Russia
open to enemy attacks, something that would come back to haunt the country again and again.
The Russian Empire was officially founded in 1721 by Peter the Great, but the worries
about its unprotected west still plagued the powerful nation. These concerns led Peter,
as well as the later Empress Catherine the Great to continue the policy of expansion.
The capital was also moved to the new city of St. Petersburg, partly because it
provided far more security than Moscow and allowed some sea access. Under Catherine,
the Russian Empire spread further west, reaching all the way to Europe’s Carpathian
Mountains. In the process, it swallowed up the territory of present day Lithuania, Latvia,
and Estonia– where it could defend against attacks from the Baltic Sea. This created a
massive protective ring of land, stretching from the Arctic down through the Baltics and Ukraine,
to the Carpathian Mountains and Black Sea, across the Caucasus and Caspian, and all
the way east to the Urals. This huge buffer zone was effective, and stopped invaders for decades.
All that changed in 1812. That year, the French Emperor Napoleon launched
his massive land invasion of Russia. One of the deadliest military campaigns in history,
Napoleon’s invasion was also every Russian leader’s worst nightmare. Half a million
French troops marched into Russia from the west, quickly heading towards Moscow. Even
though Napoleon famously lost half his men in six weeks due to extreme cold and disease,
he had also exposed Russia’s geographic weakness. Russian troops were forced to withdraw from Moscow
to avoid slaughter, burning the city behind them. And even though Napoleon’s campaign ended
in shambles, the threat of a western invasion would not be forgotten by Russia any time soon.
While the Russian Empire was ended by revolution in 1917, the obsession with westward expansion
continued. The Soviet Union might have inherited much of the Russian empire’s land,
but it also held onto its geography curse. With a backdrop of world war, civil war,
and famine, the Soviet government moved the capital back to Moscow. It also worked
to install friendly governments in the newly independent territories of the former empire,
partly to prevent another land invasion from the west. By the 1920s this seemed to be successful,
as the USSR’s sphere of influence again stretched across Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
But during World War II, Russia’s geography curse became apparent yet again. When Nazi
Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, Hitler’s troops were able to quickly surge
across the European Plain. While he was ultimately defeated, it came at a terrible cost to the USSR,
which lost around 27 million lives during the war, more than any other country.
Hitler’s invasion once again showed how the flat European Plain was an Achilles heel of Russia.
In the years following the end of World War II, Stalin followed the example of the Tsars
and used a strategy of territorial expansion, occupying land which the Nazis had invaded
in Central and Eastern Europe. This quickly became a buffer against his newest nemeses:
the US and NATO. As tensions developed into the Cold War, the USSR created the Warsaw Pact,
a military alliance with seven satellite states in Eastern Europe– cementing a new buffer zone
against future invasions. Soviet leaders continued many of Stalin’s policies for decades, but things
were brought crashing down in 1991. History seemed determined to keep the geography curse going.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia once again lost much of its territory in
the European Plain. This wasn’t appreciated by Vladimir Putin, then a rising star in the world
of Russian politics. As a KGB officer, he had been stationed in East Berlin, helping maintain
the Soviet sphere of influence on the ground. In 2005 Putin called the USSR’s collapse the
“greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century, and stated that he would reverse it if
he could. Faced with declining Russian influence and no closer to solving its geography problems,
Putin took a path now familiar in Russian history. He began a series of invasions to
hold onto and reclaim some of the areas he considers part of the country’s sphere of
influence. This includes places like Chechnya, Georgia, and eventually Ukraine, which were
historically part of its enormous buffer zone. Another historical concern Putin has complained
about is Russia’s lack of access to warm-water ports. Because of the frigid conditions in Russia,
most of the country’s ports are frozen over for at least part of the year, making it very hard
to operate there. Like the flatlands in the west, this geographic problem has been around forever,
and has stopped Russia from becoming a true naval power. For Putin, the preoccupation
with defensible territory and warm-water ports both came together in Ukraine in 2014.
Why? Because Putin had been relying on having a pro-Russian government in Kyiv to help him deal
with the geography problem. With Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence, Putin could be
sure it wouldn't join NATO. A friendly government in Kyiv could continue to protect the European
Plain, and would allow Russia access to the warm-water port of Sevastopol in Crimea. But
when Ukrainians overthrew the regime of Viktor Yanukovych in favor of closer ties to Europe,
Putin took action. Instead of respecting Ukraine’s decision, he did what Russian
leaders have done time and time again to solve their geography curse– go on the offensive. By
annexing Crimea, he made sure Russia could maintain its control over the Black Sea,
while his conquests in Ukraine’s east were supposed to retake control of the
European Plain. This would defend against any attacks from the west, and also boost Russia
economically through access to the water profitable trade waters of the Black Sea.
A similar idea might have led to his 2015 intervention in the Syrian Civil War. In
return for keeping dictator Bashar al-Assad in power with his devastating airstrikes,
Putin received a valuable prize. Assad gave him access to the port city of Tartus, where
Russia was able to build its only Mediterranean naval base. A base had existed there during the
Cold War, and Putin saw it as the logical next step in his plan of expansion. It seemed to be
the perfect solution to the endless weakness of Russia’s geography, allowing him to sidestep NATO
altogether, prop up an ally, and claim a foothold in a strategic location. By 2017, he had signed an
agreement with Assad giving Russia a 49-year lease on the naval base, totally free of charge. This
helped Putin solve the warm-water port problem, but he remained convinced of the threat by land.
Fast-forward to 2022, and Putin was ready for an all out invasion of Ukraine. Positioned
directly to Moscow’s west, the best way for any enemy power to attack Russia would still
be straight through Ukraine’s flatlands. And as the country aligned more and more
with NATO and the EU, Putin yet again went for the time-honored Russian strategy of
invasion. If he could just conquer Kyiv and install another pro-Russia puppet government,
he would once again have Russia’s historical buffer zone against his perceived enemies. In
his speech just before the invasion Putin laid out his supposed justification. Among other things,
he railed against NATO’s expansion into eastern Europe, stating that "Ukraine joining NATO is
a direct threat to Russia's security." This is one of Putin’s most often repeated complaints,
and it is fundamentally a geographic one. With NATO as his enemy, Putin, like so many
Russian leaders before him, wants a territorial buffer zone badly enough to start a war for it.
As we now know, this plan backfired spectacularly as Putin encountered
massive resistance from Ukrainians, who rejected his influence and vision of the
world. But Putin’s decision to invade was not the act of an irrational madman. Looked at this way,
through the story of geography, this invasion was just the latest in a long
line of Russian leaders using military force to try and undo the bad hand they were dealt.
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Now go check out What If Ukraine Loses The War To Russia,
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