when i look at the
bitcoin which the technicals have been
better than anything else when you we
break you know below 30 000 consistently
8 000 is the ultimate bottom so i think
we've got a lot more room to the
downside under especially with the fed
being restrictive and let's face it most
of these currencies are they're not
currencies right they're junk right i
mean the majority of crypto is garbage
wow
welcome back everybody to altcoin daily
my name's austin
that was of course heavily respected
investor scott minard who is the global
chief investment officer at guggenheim
partners and just for some background
guggenheim partners is one of the
biggest in the game they are a global
investment an advisory financial
services firm that engages in investment
banking asset management etc with over
325 billion dollars in assets under
management they are huge
so when somebody like scott minard
speaks investors tend to listen
in today's video i want to have a very
real discussion with you on where this
price of bitcoin this crypto market may
be headed next now keep in mind i'm not
a financial advisor i ultimately
have no clue where the price of bitcoin
is headed next and neither do and
despite how bullish i am long term in
the short term we very may well have
more downside to go and in today's video
i want to share with you why
so like always check the time stamps
down below smash that like button and
let's jump in starting with the broader
global market because scott menard is
not just picking on crypto he expects
more downside for traditional tech
markets as well and even though all
markets have already dropped
significantly listen to this next quick
60 second clip of scott minard sharing
his expectations for more traditional
markets as we continue this year watch
this so the wins already come out of the
sales of the tech world right and
there's and more broadly i mean you
could call it the broad indexes but when
you look specifically at this point
where where do you see more pain and to
the extent that there's upside from here
right some stocks or some some
industries they are what right well look
if you look at tech i think tech is
pretty fairly valued but i see a lot
more pain because markets fairly valued
but you see more payments right well
because markets typically don't bottom
when they're fairly valued
right
markets tend to overshoot and when you
save a day like we had on friday with a
heavy sell-off which was a key reversal
which should tell us that you know term
we're going to see a rally but rallying
off of a vix that's at 30.
i mean historically we need to be north
of 40 closer to 50 to get to get a real
bottom and so
you know i think that that until we see
some real panic
uh we're not going to to have a real
bottom and
you know like i say bear markets don't
end at fair value they tend to overshoot
so
all right
very reasonable analysis i think
give me your thoughts on what scott just
said on traditional markets down below
do you agree do you disagree but now let
me play this final clip on why scott
minard says you'll probably regret
buying altcoins in 2022 and to be clear
he is bullish on bitcoin he is bullish
on ethereum long term he'll say this he
believes those two cryptos will make it
through the bear but he thinks the
majority of other altcoins are trash
watch this about two minute clip and
then stick around at the end i want to
share with you my thoughts i want to
give you my opinion watch this
how do you think about the world of
crypto by the way the i don't know if we
can get the camera's not going to see it
the blockchain house is here every
crypto every crypto person is in town
here in davos right and we've watched it
obviously tank it's it's not clearly a
hedge on inflation at least thus far
right but do you see that as the tail do
you see that as the dog what's what's
going on there i think it's it's more of
a a symptom it's telling you it's like
the canary in the coal mine right we're
seeing crypto collapse the way it is i
think it's got more downside to it more
downside more down how much more well
you know um
when i look at the
bitcoin which the technicals have been
better than anything else when you we
break you know below 30 000 consistently
8 000 is the ultimate bottom so i think
we've got a lot more room to the
downside under especially with the fed
being restrictive and let's face it most
of these currencies are they're not
currencies right they're junk right i
mean the majority of crypto is garbage
so they're going to be survivors but you
know and crypto is the future i mean
there's a hunt there's hundreds of
cryptocurrency 19 000
but do you think that bitcoin is junk do
you think that no i think this junk do
you think uh solana's junk what how do
you i think ethereum
um i think um uh bitcoin will be
survivors and survivors at one day at a
hundred thousand two hundred thousand
five hundred thousand in the sort of
kathy woods world or something else yeah
it could be but i don't think we i don't
think we've seen the dominant player in
crypto yet
right this is like the internet bubble
right if we were sitting here in the
internet double we would be talking
about how yahoo
and america online were the great
winners and you know everything else we
couldn't tell you if amazon or pets.com
was going to be the winner right but
you know of course yahoo i mean google
we didn't have google yet right you know
america online the dial-up service died
so you know we don't know
these i don't think we have had
the right prototype yet for
crypto
okay
what do you think
well let me share with you what i think
because some of this analysis from scott
minard i do agree with but a lot of his
analysis i disagree with so let's break
down what he just said point by point
number one i agree with scott that i
also don't think we should call all of
these cryptocurrencies currencies
because they're not currencies they're
crypto assets i don't want to spend my
bitcoin or ethereum because they're
going to go up in value i want to spend
my dirty fiat to get rid of that and
hold these they're investments for me
now doesn't mean we should call them
garbage they're not garbage well
honestly a lot are garbage but the
quality ones are crypto assets and i do
think that's a better name
number two and this closely follows
number one is scott minard shares that
he is a believer bitcoin he thinks it is
here to say but he also says oh maybe
it's the yahoo or the myspace of the
internet bubble and bitcoin will be
replaced by something more valuable what
scott fails to realize is why bitcoin's
valuable it's valuable because it's the
most censorship resistant it's the most
decentralized right it's not fast cheap
digital payments we had that before
crypto before 2009. bitcoin's value is
the most decentralized the most
censorship resistant and this graph from
murad maroudov really illustrates where
we are in the adoption cycle the
evolution of bitcoin or the evolution of
any medium of exchange that may
eventually turn into a full global money
it has to start as a collectible or in
bitcoin's case a digital collectible
right btc traded for years for 1.5 years
with no value which by the way cannot be
said for all those other altcoins they
all saw there's money to be made these
crypto assets are appreciating
after digital collectible then an asset
eventually gets to store value bitcoin
is not there yet we have to see greater
liquidity greater decentralization
education understanding as well as
greater trust in the network again we're
getting there we're not there yet every
year the network grows though we do get
more trust in the network this will lead
to greater price stability less
fluctuation swings then years later we
get a widespread medium of exchange then
even greater price stability than
convenient unit of account slash full
global money so my point is when scott
monard says well bitcoin is probably the
yahoo or the myspace we don't really
know what's going to be the clear winner
a decade from now i think that would
only ever be right if you think another
protocol one of the other altcoins is
going to become more decentralized more
censorship resistant than bitcoin which
is clearly not happening anytime soon
that's my thoughts give me your thoughts
down below
and that brings us to our third point of
scotland air chairing that he thinks the
crypto market and all markets have
further downside to go
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and that brings us to our third point of
scotland air chairing that he thinks the
crypto market and all markets have
further downside to go in my opinion i
tend to agree with him not to say we
won't see bounces in the process for
example as discussed in yesterday's
video
bitcoin's making history right now on
the weekly scale with its one two three
four five six seven eighth consecutive
week to the downside going on its ninth
even though we just started the week so
even in the most bearish of bear markets
a bounce will sometime eventually happen
and let's just say all right we go up we
bounce off we go up we bounce off and
maybe later this year three months from
now we do break to the upside as more
and more people accumulate bitcoin the
trend is usually your friend
and the trend right now is bitcoin
dominant is rising
bitcoin is sucking up market share
bitcoin on each but mainly bitcoin is
sucking up market share from the rest of
these altcoins
so for me personally that's why i'm
dollar cost averaging bitcoin and
ethereum exclusively right now i'd
rather be a little late to the party
than too early
but that's me i'm more of a conservative
investor in my mind
and last point i want to make and i can
see a lot of the audience being angry
with me for saying this but again these
are just my views in real time and i use
this channel to sort of document my
mindset at the time
let's just say hypothetically bitcoin
continues to grind back upwards over the
next several weeks maybe we hit around
40 41 000 you know prior support
resistance in the past that would be
hugely positive steps for btc
do we think that more people meaning new
people are then suddenly going to dive
into alt be on board into the network or
do we think that retail is sort of done
they've sort of
been turned off to altcoins because of
the huge swings of volatility to the
downside these last few months i tend to
think that the trend is your friend and
right now the trend in terms of people
being onboarded to the network the
majority of people you know bought in
around the top at the beginning of 2021
so there's a lot of people
we saw another significant amount of
people yet clearly slightly less people
get onboarded into the network at the
second top back in november and if we
maybe approach again
i don't know i don't really see a drove
of new users coming into this network
that's me that's my opinion and again on
this channel i'll always share with you
both the bullish and the bearish
narratives so you can form your own
opinion but the final thing i'll say is
number one you'll never time the bottoms
i could be completely wrong i you know i
can't see the future
but i know that i'll never time the
bottoms so i'm actively dollar cost
averaging on the way down much like you
take profits on the way up dollar cost
average in on the way down it's my
strategy and number two
what i think we need to see
before new people new participants enter
this market is
sort of a capitulation event either in a
correction or in time so right now or
even if we you know go up for a couple
weeks
we're not really seeing the bulls the
buyers step in at these prices in this
market
so if we see a capitulation event
another leg lower and we see the buyers
come we see that dip get bought up
that's a signal to me that the trend is
starting to change so number one a price
capitulation correction or number two
just a time correction a time correction
if we stay around these prices for the
next couple months that sort of
stabilization will be a bullish sign for
me as well all right that is the video
my name is austin like always see you
tomorrow
and by the way i want to hear from you
in the comments if you agreed or
disagreed with my analysis
of guggenheim's scott minard's analysis
let me know your thoughts down below