Shortages of an iconic candy, kitchen staples,
and a certain foamy drink? The 2020s didn't start so hot, and 2023 is no different. Keep
watching to know which groceries may be harder to find in the upcoming year.
Few food products embody the essence of staple items like bread. But with no end
in sight to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, between two nations that account for nearly
20% of global cereal grain production, many bakeries and factories may struggle to obtain
the necessary ingredients to make bread. Cue the potential bread shortage in 2023.
Many bakeries across the U.S. were already feeling the strain of dwindling bread-making supplies by
May 2022, according to CBS News. Consequently, the basic economic principles of supply and demand,
in which greater demand amid lower supply leads to a higher cost for consumers,
have already led to a nationwide increase in the price of bread.
The diminished stock of basic components for bread production isn't likely to replenish before the
new year, given the continued conflict in Eastern Europe. An agreement between Ukraine and Russia
did allow the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea to resume in July 2022. But as long
as the war persists, cereal grain production in the region will continue to suffer, making bread
availability in 2023 a likely casualty. “You wanna bread sandwich? What’s a bread
sandwich? What?!? You’ve never had a bread sandwich from Pete’s?”
Is there any reason why the average person would need to know how and where vegetable oil is made?
Sure, the fact that it's generally made with oilseed crops, like soybeans, sunflowers,
and canola, is somewhat interesting, but it's far from essential knowledge. However,
knowing a large portion of those oilseeds are grown and harvested in Ukraine and Russia will
at least help you understand why a potential vegetable oil shortage is likely in 2023.
But the chance of a 2023 vegetable oil shortage isn't solely related to Ukraine or Russia. A
concurrent palm oil shortage in Indonesia, which briefly banned the export of palm oil in April
2022, hasn't helped matters. Since Indonesia is the world's leading producer of palm oil, any
ongoing supply issues only compound the potential problem of vegetable oil availability in 2023.
Maybe you never ponder the origin of the foods you consume, especially vegetable oil. But if a
vegetable oil shortage happens in 2023, maybe you'll think twice about your fried food.
We don't mean to be corny here, but these yellow kernels hold a special place in our
hearts. The monumentally versatile food item may be categorized at different times as a vegetable,
grain, or fruit. Regardless of the format, corn is virtually guaranteed to deliver an exquisitely
delightful experience when consuming it. And considering our adoration for all things corn,
we were immensely disheartened to discover that less corn was planted in 2022 than the
year before, according to USDA. A smaller batch of planted crops means a smaller overall yield,
which could potentially lead to a corn shortage in 2023. The smaller
batch of corn crops doesn't necessarily guarantee that corn-based products will
disappear from shelves next year. But, as one agricultural investor told Successful Farming
in May 2022, the reduced corn harvest does unfortunately mean bad news for us. He says,
"the world will be facing relatively high food prices for an extended period."
On a more optimistic note, agricultural policy experts at the University of Missouri published
a 2022 study predicting the price of corn will eventually fall. However,
the analysis does little to help consumers in 2023,
as the overall drop in cost isn't expected to occur until 2024 at the earliest.
Unfortunately for us all, there is a looming butter shortage predicted
for the 2022 holiday baking season. And even worse, the shortage can continue into 2023.
Amidst crushing inflation levels in 2022, you may have already noticed the rising price of
butter at your local grocery store. This isn't by chance. After all, between lower-than-expected
milk production at many U.S. dairy farms, and a sustained labor shortage at many of those same
farms, the stock of cold-stored butter has diminished to its lowest level since 2017.
A slight increase in the overall milk production for 2023 is expected,
which will help replenish butter stocks as the year progresses. But while the expected
supply should be greater than in 2022, the expected 2023 price for butter is still 65
cents higher than in 2021, suggesting that stores will remain somewhat depleted. Since
the supply issues this holiday season are likely to extend into the very early part of next year,
the best course of action may be to prepare for a butter shortage for at least part of 2023.
“What should I do? Please pass the butter!”
If you were hoping the Halloween candy shortage that Hershey's anticipated in 2022 would end by
the time the holidays rolled around, we can't say we're as optimistic. The chocolate company
claims it has taken steps to overcome the low supply of candy it expects this holiday season
and has assured the public the problems won't linger. But since the main forces behind the
supply chain issues leading to ingredient scarcity haven't been entirely resolved,
namely, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war,
we're planning for a potential Hershey candy shortage around the holidays in 2023 as well.
Hershey told Food Dive in August 2022 that it did anticipate the holiday candy shortage would
be resolved moving forward. So our negative prediction regarding a potential problem in
2023 may be a bit harsh. But we're still leery of taking the company's word on the matter,
and we'd much rather be safe than sorry, especially as Hershey notes
that consumer demand for its candy has continued to increase in recent years.
At least the holiday candy shortage seems to be an exclusively Hershey problem,
rather than an industry-wide concern.
Champagne connoisseurs may be shocked to see the bubbling drink listed among
potential food shortages for 2023. After all, there already is an ongoing shortage
of champagne throughout the world, one which began during the early stages of
the COVID-19 pandemic. We certainly wish we could say otherwise, but it's likely that
real champagne, from the Champagne region in France, will remain sparse in 2023.
The strict regulation of champagne production in France, which is overseen by the [Comité
Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne], or CIVC, doesn't help the cause. After all,
the trade organization puts a cap on how much champagne can be produced each year. This
included a 25% reduction in total production in 2020 relative to 2019, after the start
of the pandemic. Given the time and effort involved in producing authentic champagne,
the CIVC's reduction mandate in 2020 continues to stifle U.S. availability.
It isn't just the 2020 CIVC decision that's created a problem, though, as climate change also
reared its ugly head toward Champagne grapes in 2021. A rash of extreme weather that year resulted
in a devastating number of crops growing fungus, leading to a smaller than average crop yield.
While vineyard owners were optimistic about 2022's grape potential, the backlog of issues
related to champagne's shortage means the bubbly beverage will not be overflowing any time soon.
California is responsible for a ridiculously high amount of U.S. produce. In fact, according to the
California Department of Food and Agriculture, in 2021 more than a third of U.S. vegetables were
grown in the state, along with 75% of the nation's fruits and nuts. Consequently, a drought there is
apt to have a disproportionate effect on the rest of the nation's food supply. In other words, if we
find ourselves amidst a tomato shortage in 2023, blame the extended drought devastating California.
"What kind of place is this? There's no water in here."
It's not exactly mind-blowing that a state currently experiencing the driest three-year
stretch in its recorded history has found its farm industry severely impacted. According to
the U.S Drought Monitor, more than half the state remains in an extreme or exceptional
drought as of October 2022. Frankly, given the sustained period of excessive
dryness in the Golden State, the odds of a tomato shortage in 2023 are sky high.
Since tomatoes are a base ingredient in numerous popular dishes and food items,
the concern about a potential tomato shortage in 2023 can't be overstated.
No ingredient is more crucial to bread dough than flour. The staple ingredients
are made from cereal grains, most often wheat. Since nearly one-fifth of the world's cereal
grain is grown in Ukraine and Russia, where war continues to rage as of December 2022,
it's only natural to conclude a flour shortage may be coming in 2023. But it's not just the conflict
between Ukraine and Russia that's inching the world toward a flour shortage. The increasingly
detrimental impact of climate change may lead to a reduction in wheat crop yields as well, as it has
done in the past. This could only serve to lower the amount of available flour in 2023 and beyond.
Since flour isn't used solely in bread production, it merits inclusion on this list
as its own individual item. Because, frankly, the fallout from a flour shortage wouldn't be
limited to a lack of available bread, it would cause a potential reduction in all baked goods.
It's important to remember that a shortage of a particular food doesn't automatically mean that
food won't be available for purchase. Many times, consumers will notice a shortage upon
experiencing sticker shock at their local supermarket. Unfortunately, the widespread
instances of skyrocketing prices on basic food items aren't likely to change much in 2023,
particularly when it comes to beef. With a fairly stark drop in beef production predicted in the
second half of this year, you can expect a batch of burgers or steaks to dent your wallet soon.
Of all the potential food shortages that may happen in 2023,
a beef shortage may be the easiest to predict. Industry insiders were
already anticipating a price increase of at least 15% on beef back in September 2022,
after a drought forced many farmers to sell off their cattle earlier than anticipated this year.
“Where’s the beef!?!”
Folks with carnivorous cravings may be unable to satisfy their stomachs as easily with beef
in 2023. But if nothing else, domestic production of pork, chicken, and turkey
rose in 2022. So even if a shortage of beef is on the table, a forced shift to vegetarianism is not.
An absence of abundantly available raw materials generally indicates the shortage of a specific
type of processed food. But what if the items needed to craft the actual container that
holds a food product are lacking? Well, you may find out in 2023. Consumers could be facing a
shortage of several food and beverage products typically packaged and sold in aluminum cans
due to an ongoing, worldwide aluminum shortage in 2022 caused by a major increase in demand.
Now, if there's a silver lining to be had when it comes to the aluminum shortage,
it's the fact that fairly few food items are still packed in aluminum cans these days. Many modern
food cans are actually composed of steel. However, a lot of beverages, including beer and soda, are
typically still made with aluminum. Additionally, since aluminum is still often used as a laminate
lining for many canned food products, it's better to prepare for a potential shortage than to not.
While this list has already highlighted certain specific fruits and vegetables that may face a
potential shortage in 2023, the sad truth is that others may join them on the sideline,
as well. After all, between climate change, and a worldwide fertilizer shortage, there's a better
than average chance that we face a shortage of many farm-grown fruits and vegetables in 2023.
The culprit for the world's severe lack of fertilizer, like many other potential supply
shortage issues facing us in 2023, is easy to identify — the Ukraine-Russia war. After all,
since Russia is one of the world's largest producers of all three main fertilizer types,
its current preoccupation with a military conflict has stunted its export of fertilizers. In fact,
the cost of fertilizer jumped 50% after Russia invaded Ukraine, only furthering the problem.
Clearly, we don't anticipate much relief when it comes to food shortages in 2023.
But at least you can always drink away your sorrows with a nice, frosty beer, right? Well,
if that's your plan, don't blame the messenger. While a desire to grab an ice-cold brewski in
2023 would be understandable, the cruel irony is that a beer shortage may be in the cards,
too. The current aluminum shortage could unfortunately decrease can production,
while a lack of available carbon dioxide may impact production of the beverage itself.
“Hey Homer, I’m worried about the beer supply. After this case,
and the other case, there’s only one case left!”
Like many other food shortages we anxiously await in 2023,
we don't expect to see beer totally stripped from liquor store shelves next
year. But consumers who've grown accustomed to choosing from dozens of small craft beer
options in recent years may be forced to settle for mass-produced options instead.