It’s been a harsh, harsh winter for Russian troops. As the snow melts and
the spring sunshine starts to defrost the ground, Ukrainians are planting flags and celebrating.
Crimea is theirs. Something no one thought possible just a few months before.
Do you think that’s an outrageous thing to say? Hear us out,
and then make up your mind at the end.
Ukrainians had cause to celebrate after their armed forces took back the city
of Kherson in November, after the most successful counteroffensive of the war.
Earlier in September, Putin had declared the annexation of Kherson and the regions of Luhansk,
Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine. The loss of Kherson city and
other territories close by hurt Putin, given its close proximity to Crimea.
The Russians had been there for just six weeks before they were sent packing,
with Ukrainians joyfully putting flags back up that the Russians had taken down during their
occupation. On November 9, Russia’s General of the Army Sergey Surovikin said that the military
was leaving. Two days later, the Russian Ministry of Defense said all troops and equipment had been
removed from the area without any major issues. That may not have been the truth. Reports later
surfaced that Russia had struggled to get its 40,000 troops to safety, never mind its equipment
which was quickly captured by the advancing Ukrainian troops. People hailed the victory as
a “tectonic shift” in the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was a “historic day.”
Kherson had been the only major city the Russians had managed to take, and now they’d
run away with their tails between their legs. The videos of soldiers retreating in single
file were nothing short of shameful for Putin, who’d really not expected this
to happen. With this defeat, Crimea was suddenly looking a lot more vulnerable.
What’s perhaps more shameful is that Russia had blown up a main bridge after they’d crossed it,
presumably worried that Ukraine could use it to engage in hot pursuit. It’s
also telling that since Russia had done this, it had no intention of returning,
or at least not for a long time. Kherson was gone, and it wasn’t coming under Russian control anytime
soon. This was just weeks after Russian officials had spread propaganda about its victory there,
erecting signs in the city that read, “Russia is here forever.” Talk about pie in your face.
Soon it became known that Russia had left behind valuable equipment, including plenty of tanks;
some reports stated “dozens” of tanks on top of armed-personnel carriers were left
behind in perfectly good condition. Critics of the Kremlin’s retreat but
supportive of the invasion wrote blogs saying things like, “You could have at
least blown them up before you left!” We think the Russian forces had something more
important on their minds as they scurried off. Before the Ukrainian military entered the city,
the Russians had blown up the Antonivsky Bridge that crosses the Dnipro River.
Russia didn’t say how it had done it or why it had done it, but we think that’s pretty obvious.
There’s only one reason why someone purposefully burns their bridges. It’s called separation,
and Russia made damn sure it was final. Ukrainian residents who heard the explosions
said it happened just before dawn, and it made such a racket that it took them aback,
even after everything that had gone on there over the past few months.
Thanks to US satellite images, we know that Russia destroyed a bunch of other crossings.
That includes the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, located about 50 miles to the north,
as well as a railroad bridge, another bridge at the town of Darivka, and some more crossings. But
none were as important as the Antonivsky Bridge. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it sent
supplies to this region over the Antonivsky Bridge. In terms of Russia’s strategy in the
invasion, the bridge is what you might call a big piece of the puzzle. And now Russia had
blown the thing up, or at least badly damaged it. It had made it useless regarding the transport of
hardware. The unusability, though, goes both ways. Prior to Russia taking Kherson, when Ukraine began
its counter-offensive in August, Ukrainian forces did everything to keep the bridge
intact. They targeted Russian forces based close to the river, using long-range weapons
sent from the West to take out Russian command and control centers and ammunition depots.
Notably, Ukraine did not want to destroy the bridge completely, but just damage it enough so
Russia couldn’t fully utilize it. In Ukraine’s crystal ball, it saw itself one day chasing
Russians back across that bridge and perhaps entering Crimea. It needed to be damaged but not
destroyed. Crimea was always in Ukraine’s sights. Russia fully understands this ambition and is
currently trying its hardest to ensure Ukraine’s plan never comes to fruition. Since Russia
retreated from Kherson, it’s been fortifying positions in the area, building defense bases
that US intelligence said stretch for about 25 miles (40km). The construction of these bases,
in terms of speed, has been called “unmatched.” If Ukraine wants to liberate Crimea, it will have
one hell of a fight on its hands. Reports now say Russia has built dozens of fortifications to the
east of the Dnipro River. It’s built defenses along roads, main ones, and smaller ones,
and at various bridges and intersections. The importance of Russia keeping Crimea can’t
be understated, so as we said, a Ukraine advance will not be easy. Intelligence
tells us that Russia has been very busy of late, constructing anti-tank barriers, digging trenches,
and setting up mines on the coast of the river. The Russians have also erected so-called ‘dragon’s
teeth,’ pyramidal structures made of concrete with the purpose of stopping military vehicles.
But Ukraine has an ace in the hole in this respect. It has the US and its Allies,
who control the most advanced intelligence network in the world. Russia’s every move is
being recorded. Radar systems and other surveillance tech show Ukraine Russia’s
weak spots. It exposes Russia’s strategy. Every position they take is being analyzed.
The British Intelligence Agency recently said Russia’s new fortifications might not
be enough to hold Ukraine back. The agency said the fortifications are old school and won’t work
in a modern conflict. It explained, “These structures align with traditional military
trench plans that have remained largely unchanged since World War II. Such structures are likely
to be vulnerable to accurate strikes from modern weapons.” Ukraine has no shortage of such weapons,
being spoiled with elaborate military packages that can make a US taxpayer cry.
So, Ukraine has all the intelligence it needs to assess Russia's positions and plan against Russian
strategies. It also has long and short-range weapons thanks to the western war industry, and
now we are being told that Russia is prepared to defend Crimea in ways that would not have looked
out of place at the start of the 20th century. But Russia has another setback, which everyone
is talking about. Russia’s Achilles heel, or at least one of them, is the fact it’s using
mobilized troops. In a few of our shows, you've heard how such troops have been sent to fight
with only the most basic training. Many men have refused to fight,
complaining of being used as cannon fodder and not even receiving the right equipment to protect
themselves. Discipline among troops has been a problem for Russia, which will undoubtedly
affect how well a Ukrainian advance toward Crimea can be repulsed. Discipline might not
be such an important factor if Russia gets its way, which in part, is to use the fortifications
to drive the Ukrainians into narrow paths where they’ll be bombarded with missiles and artillery.
Russian hackers have also been able, at times, to collect information on US/Ukraine war strategy. As
a Carnegie report recently stated, “Russian hackers might still have a larger impact if
they can collect high-value intelligence that Moscow then leverages effectively.”
There is a genuine threat that Russian hackers will get their hands on more
top-secret information, which will help Russia target Ukrainian forces, possibly where important
Western weapons systems are being used. They may hack and then leak information
that will expose Ukraine’s combat losses and negatively affect how the western public and
Ukrainian public feel about this war. Russia will keep attacking Ukraine's
infrastructure, and any leaks that show military weaknesses will certainly drive nails into the
Ukrainian public’s confidence. So many people are already suffering, and as winter goes on,
they will suffer more. This is why this winter might be a trying time for Ukraine and its allies,
especially if the Russians start leaking information that doesn’t exactly make the
west and Ukraine look great. Russia might just stop there,
waiting, embracing a war of attrition, destroying more and more infrastructure,
and using its cyber intelligence to its full potential. It doesn’t help Ukraine
that to move forward; it might have to trudge through swampland. Progress won’t be easy;
any such push will also mean Ukraine has supply issues to contend with.
Russia wants to keep as active as possible on other fronts in the war, such as in Bakhmut
where it has seen some success. Still, this winter could be devastating for Russian troops if Ukraine
gets its way and destroys the supply lines that are delivering Russia its diesel. This precious
commodity doesn’t only power military vehicles, but it also makes generators run, lighting up and
heating command posts and living facilities. Fuel is always essential, but if Ukraine can
decrease the amount of fuel that can reach the front lines during the winter, it will really
dent Russia's survival rates and confidence. You can almost hear the whispers from both sides,
saying in tremulous tones, "Winter is coming." We’re talking about a lot of fuel here,
and Ukraine knows that, so it is already targeting Russia's supply lines. Fuel depots have already
been destroyed by Ukrainian artillery and drones, the kind of thing that will be more devastating
if it keeps happening during the winter. This is why Russia is fighting so hard to take Bakhmut,
as it’s vital in terms of supplies. Russia has already had quite a scare
lately in terms of losing supply lines. In 2018, Russia said it was proud to have
finished what it called the “construction of the century.” That was something of an exaggeration,
but it wasn’t far off. We are talking about the Crimea Bridge, aka, the Kerch Bridge,
which is central to Russia’s war effort in terms of keeping the troops supplied.
In October 2022, this pride of Putin structure blew up, sending large pieces of cement into
the river and killing four Russian civilians. At the time, no one knew what really happened,
but word on the street was that a truck had driven over the bridge carrying a large explosive. Russia
called it terrorism and blamed Ukraine, but the truth behind the explosion has yet to come out.
This was another massive blow for Putin, who wasn’t just bugged about losing a supply route
but was also disheartened when he heard that such a symbolic structure was in flames. He can
smile now since it’s largely been repaired after a massive effort by Russian engineers and workers.
A British engineer told the BBC, “The bridge has certainly been repaired much
quicker than the timescales common in civilian engineering projects.”
The reason is this multi-billion dollar bridge, the longest in Europe (12 miles/19 km), also has
valuable rail lines which were badly damaged. Two tracks and four roads connect Russia to
Crimea and are used to deliver a huge amount of goods, arms and equipment to the region.
The bridge doesn’t just help supply the people of Crimea with fuel and food,
but it is essential for transporting weapons and personnel into Ukraine. Making it not very
useful for a while upset the balance of the war. It’s not certain just how much of it
is totally fixed right now, although some sources say there’s still work to be done,
and with winter making it hard to work, Russia might have to wait until spring to
finish the repairs. This could be problematic. The bridge is important, but Ukraine has also
attacked another strategically vital city in terms of supplies: Melitopol.
Not only is the fighting here an effort to push the Russians out of southern Ukraine,
but Melitopol is known as the gateway to Crimea. Victory here could ensure Ukraine takes back the
entire Zaporizhzhia region and what’s left of Russian-occupied Kherson, so this could
also become the path to taking back Crimea. In Mid-December, Ukraine forces damaged a
bridge crossing the Molochna River. They later killed Russian soldiers in barracks, although
as this show is being made, Russia is still in Melitopol. Reports are stating that what happened
in Kherson could happen in Melitopol, which might have occurred by the time you see this show.
If it does happen, it’s another way Crimea might soon be back in Ukraine’s hands,
but as with a Kherson offensive, it will be very hard. An official for the Biden administration
recently said it was possible. Still, analysts worry that if Putin did lose Crimea,
it might be the trigger that makes the mad man use nuclear bombs. Some say a line needs to be crossed
for him to do that, and the line is Crimea. But as we said, in spite of Ukraine’s wins
and Russia’s perhaps vulnerable fortifications, pushing into Crimea will always be a daunting
task. Even so, Russia has built those fortifications all the way back to Crimea,
so it must be expecting Ukraine to try and advance that far. The threat is very much real.
Now you need to watch “Russia and Ukraine's Plan to Win the War.” Or, have a look at …