Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City visit Mauricio Pochettino’s Paris Saint-Germain in the
first leg of a fascinating Champions League semi-final.
PSG’s threat is obvious: in Kylian Mbappe, they possess a lethally quick striker. In
Neymar, a brilliant dual threat who can provide craft and goals.
He’ll try to drift into the space ahead of City’s backline, while Mbappe will target
the channel between the outside of one of City’s centre-backs and full back. This
season, he’s been doing this a lot on the opposition’s right-hand side, but should
Guardiola select Kyle Walker, who’s quicker than Joao Cancelo, Mbappe could instead look
to profit on City’s left.
Pochettino also has choices to make in midfield. Teams who unsettle City with an intense high
press often look most likely to disrupt their extraordinary ability to build from deep.
This could mean a change in system or personnel for PSG: their 4-2-3-1, which defends like
a 4-4-2, has used Julian Draxler on the left, but he’s PSG’s least effective presser
by percentage success rate, and he’s fairly low volume too.
Pochettino could deploy someone like Marco Verratti or even Ander Herrera in an unorthodox
left-sided role or even alter his system to a 4-3-3 with Di Maria and Neymar drifting
in from the flanks. But whatever happens, PSG need to stop City building from deep with
energetic pressing and intelligent tactical fouling, while also not losing their shape
and being ready to counter. It’ll be a mentally and physically taxing battle for Pochettino’s
team but they need to stop City scoring away from home.
And Manchester City have been imperious - especially in the second half of the season. While tactical
changes for big games have been something of an Achilles heel for Guardiola, his two
big shifts this season were worked out early and have succeeded.
The first of these is crucial. City no longer expose their two centre backs as much as they
did last season. The full backs tuck in, and the defensive midfielder sits deeper. John
Stones and Ruben Dias, the first-choice centre back pairing, also play more narrowly, often
sticking together as they fall back, which protects the centre of the goal and makes
them less vulnerable to runs from outside to in. This will be especially useful against
Mbappe, who thrives on such movement.
The conundrum for City’s defence is how to balance the high line needed by City to
compress space for their own pressing game with the need to protect against Mbappe’s
pace. Here it makes sense for one full back, probably whoever plays on the right, to be
less aggressive – Riyad Mahrez or perhaps a more orthodox winger like Ferran Torres
can provide the width, and this allows City to form almost a back three with a covering
defender.
City’s other big shift, the use of a false nine, has been revelatory. It’s given Guardiola’s
team superb control of the ball and, from that, the temperament of matches: City never
seem to panic even when going a goal down, as they did against Dortmund in the second
leg of the quarters.
This is a game that will be won and lost in the fine margins: the accuracy of PSG’s
pressing, the height of City’s defensive line. Too much or not enough of either will
leave these two teams vulnerable to exactly what the other side is good at. It suits PSG
to exploit the counter, but they’ll want to impose themselves in the home tie. It suits
City to control the game and wait to strike, but they’ll want to push for an away goal
while not leaving themselves vulnerable.
And, at stake, a place in the final for two teams absolutely desperate to claim their
first Champions League title. Getting this intriguing tactical battle right will go a
long way to deciding who comes out
on top.