I moderated a panel this week
packed with heavy hitters
Avril Haines,
the US
director of National Intelligence,
the secretary general of NATO's
Jens Stoltenberg,
President Duda of Poland,
and the deputy prime ministers
of Ukraine
and Canada,
Julius Danko and Chrystia Freeland.
I started with a question to MS. Haines.
I wanted to know the U.S.
intelligence community's perspective
on where the war is now
and where it's headed
The way we would say
it is not a stalemate, but
but really a grinding conflict
at this stage
where quite literally we're talking
about hundreds of meters
being fought over
in the context of the front lines.
But I think from our perspective,
both militaries
obviously have challenges.
It will be extremely important
for Ukraine
to receive
essentially military assistance
and economic assistance moving forward
in order for them
to be able to continue to manage
what they have been heroically doing.
And on the Russian side,
we see also significant challenges
and munitions
supplies, morale, exhaustion,
some dysfunction in the leadership
and so on, things that are,
I think, making it more difficult
for the Russian military as well
to do that.
It is striking to me
how strong the West has been
in other parts
of the world as well
in supporting Ukraine.
Do you think that the response is
strong enough and more importantly,
what everybody worries
about is it will it stay strong,
this assistance?
We've just sent to two to two.
Ukraine is still not enough
Ukraine needs more our efforts.
It's more our aid.
And we should mobilize ourselves
to help them because it's the situation
is it's really difficult
and I'm afraid
now it is.
And it will be in a few,
maybe months, maybe weeks.
The crucial moment
next, crucial moments of this war
and and
this moment will answer for the question
Will Ukraine
survive or not?
Chrystia,
do you worry about the staying
power of the West
So the short answer is,
of course,
it would be stupid and naive not to
but I think we're going to do it.
And I think, you know, of course I worry.
I am ultimately extremely confident
and I am extremely confident
first and foremost
because of the magnificent,
magnificent job Ukraine is doing.
And as President Zelensky
very crucially pointed out,
supplying Ukraine with the money
it needs to win the war
is ultimately in our own self-interest.
So I'm a finance minister.
And if you were to say to me,
what is the one thing that G7
finance ministers, G7 governments
this year could do?
That's actually in our power, right?
We don't control COVID.
We don't control global supply chains.
We don't control
whether there will be immaculate
disinflation or not.
One thing
where we have
some real practical levers is
we can help
Ukraine when clearly, definitively
and if we do that, if that happens
this year,
you know it as well as I do, Fareed.
That would be a huge boost
to the global economy.
Mr.
Secretary General,
you heard
the president of Ukraine say
he would like to be a member of NATO.
Will you let him in
NATO's position remains unchanged,
and that is that
the Ukraine will become a member of NATO.
Then, of course, the main focus now
is to support
Ukraine
to ensure that Ukraine wins the war
and prevails
as a sovereign, independent,
democratic nation in Europe.
It is extremely important
that President Putin doesn't
win this war,
partly because it would be a tragedy
for the Ukrainians,
but would be very dangerous
for all of us,
because then the message
to authoritarian leaders,
not only to Putin,
but also other authoritarian leaders,
is that when they use brutal force,
when they violate international law,
they achieve what they want.
And that will be a very bad
and dangerous lessons.
It will make the world more dangerous
and more vulnerable.
And that is reason why
if we want
a negotiated,
peaceful solution
to the war in Ukraine,
we need to provide military support
to Ukraine.
That's the only way
weapons
they are the way to peace.
And and
and that may sound like a paradox
about the
but the only way to have a negotiated
agreement is to convince President
Putin that they will not win
on the battlefield.
He has to sit down and and negotiate.
Nobody knows how this war will end.
Most likely
it will end around the negotiating table.
What what we do know is that what happens
happens around
that negotiating table
is totally dependent
on the strength of the battlefield.
And if we want Ukraine to prevail,
then they need the military strength.