A swarm of Ukrainian drones weaves through the waves. It’s the Ride of the Valkyries, 2022.
Russia’s Black Sea flagship vessel, Admiral Makarov, is hit, while other ships are damaged
or possibly even sunk. It’s an audacious attack by the Ukrainians and a humiliating
loss for the Russians. Above all, it’s a sign of modernity, of how much warfare has changed.
Drones have already been important so far in this war, but could they actually win
it for Ukraine? That’s what we’ll find out today. We’ll talk more about this particular attack soon,
but first, let’s have a look at the hardware and software making a big impact on the battlefield.
We should say the impact relates to both sides. As we make this video, Ukrainian forces report
that Russia has launched 30 drone attacks in just two days, to varying levels of success.
In total, Ukraine has seen 4,500 missile strikes and over 8,000 air raids from Russia,
with drones playing a major role. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is intent on
clipping the wings of Russia. It seems Ukraine has already had some success in this regard,
with the Ukrainian military saying it has already shot down a large number of Russian drones.
One of those blasted out of the sky was an Iranian-made drone. Analysts are saying Iran
has been selling Russia a large number of such drones, albeit secretly. Both Moscow
and Tehran have denied this so far. The US thinks otherwise and is not
happy about how Russia has conducted itself in regard to drones. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken has said Russia’s use of drones is “appalling.” He charged Russian commanders
with using unmanned aerial machines with the intention of trying to “kill Ukrainian civilians
and destroy the infrastructure they rely on for electricity, for water, [and] for heat.”
The ones that allegedly come from Iran are the Shahed-136s. These are“kamikaze”
drones. They fly off. They look around. They find a target, and they fly into it.
Reports state that the 136s have become an “aerial menace.” These things can fly for
hundreds of miles, and then out of nowhere, they divebomb towards their target. The
spectacle is terrifying to anyone down on the ground. They’ve already dive-bombed into power
stations, leaving hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians without electricity.
In September, it was reported that some 136s took out two armored personal carriers and
four artillery systems. The warhead on the drones, which is at the front of the nose,
can weigh as much as 110 pounds (50kg). That’s a hefty payload for a drone that’s not very big,
and the damage they cause can be pretty significant.
The units are 11 feet (3.5 meters) long and have a wingspan of 8.2 feet (2.5 meters). They
can reach speeds of 115 mph (185 kph) and may be able to fly anywhere between 1,100
and 1,600 miles (1,800 and 2,500 kilometers) once they’ve been programmed to hit a specific target.
No one knows how much Iran charges for them. The media says they could cost anywhere from $10,000
to $50,000. In terms of modern warfare, that’s pennies for Russia, especially considering the
amount of damage they can do. The bargain basement drone is very popular right now in Russia.
Before the 136s came onto the scene in the Ukraine war sometime in September,
Russia had already used other deadly kamikaze drones, including the Zala KYB Strike Drone.
These Russian-made weapons have been around for a few years now. Russia used
quite a large number of them in Syria between 2015 and 2018. This is how one
military technology website described the Zala: “The wide triangular-winged unmanned aerial
vehicle (UAV) is designed for hidden launch and silent operation during missions. It can attack
ground and sea-based enemy infrastructure as well as lightly armored targets.”
These are much smaller than the 136s, but in terms of their silicon brains, they are quite
smart. They use artificial intelligence coupled with visual identification technology to find
their targets. They can hover above a target, and then once the AI decides there’s something like a
tank down below, they leave the upper atmosphere and dive down at a speed of 80 mph (130 kph).
Russia has other kinds of drones, including the Lancet kamikaze drone.
While these drones, like the Zala, are formidable at taking out tanks or other military vehicles,
they can’t hold that much of a payload, and their range isn’t all that great.
That’s the thing about the 136s, they have a decent range and can carry payloads that
can do a hell of a lot more damage than blowing the turret off a tank. Military
nerds have actually debated which drones are better. We are not going to give an opinion,
but we will say that all these drones have been effective at times.
Okay, now that we have that part done, we want to talk about Ukrainian drones. As you all know,
support for Russia around the world is rather scant. On the other hand,
support for Ukraine is global. Perhaps as many as 50 countries have been giving aid to Ukraine,
and some of those aid packages include some rather outstanding military equipment. Total
US aid is said to be about $54 billion, and a good chunk of it is military aid.
The UK has also spent billions on aid, while Poland, Germany, and France have also made
a mark on what weapons Ukraine now owns. It’s hard to say how much more Ukraine will receive,
but rest assured, many people in the US alone think $54 billion is not enough.
As you watch this, some politicians in the US are trying to pass bipartisan legislation
to support Ukraine even more. The UK has also promised to bolster its aid package.
What do you think this means in terms of drones? You would likely come to the
conclusion that Ukraine could out-drone Russia with ease. Let’s look into that.
You obviously need anti-drone weapons in this war, and Ukraine was recently
given some of them. The benefactor, in this case, was Israel, a country that had said
it wouldn’t supply Ukraine with weapons as it didn’t want to mess up its relationship
with Russia. It’s a complicated story, described by one journalist as a “diplomatic
tightrope.” We won’t go into that today. It seems Israel will not provide lethal
weapons to Ukraine but has already helped Ukraine in terms of drone intelligence. It has provided
Ukraine with what are called “Smash 2000l Anti-UAV Systems.” In short, these can take out drones.
They may well be used against those 136s. They contain autonomous fire control systems,
FCS, so they may be able to shoot down those Russian drones before they get to their targets.
You need an actual human shooter to fire the gun, but the intelligent systems ensure
the drone’s flight path is tracked in a way that will basically ensure the shooter can’t
miss. This should be effective for smaller drones, but it might not be very good when
we are talking about huge combat drones. The UK might also be helping in terms
of defense since, along with the US, it’s supplying Ukraine with what’s called ISTAR.
That stands for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance. It’s
basically related to gathering intelligence and can be used with uncrewed aircraft systems,
UASs. This might warn Ukraine early when one of those Russian drones is nearing its target.
Another thing coming by the way of the UK is micro-drones.
The country announced that part of the billions it’s donating to Ukraine will consist of 850 Black
Hornet nano-drones. These things are basically a set of eyes flying around like a rather small,
almost silent bird. If you want to see places where a human might be shot dead
in his tracks, you might send in a nano-drone. The UK said these drones were part of a $54
million package also comprising 200 surveillance drones and ~1000 anti-tank loitering munitions.
As for US aid, the list is as long as your arm. It includes all kinds of surveillance tech,
weapons that can blow vehicles out of the sky, and drones. Part of a recent
$775 million package consisted of 15 Scan Eagle low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles.
These are primarily used for reconnaissance since they can fly for many hours and are
hooked up to excellent surveillance technology. They were originally used to spot fish in the
sea! It seems they can also carry a payload of high-precision weapons. Ironically, it’s thought
Iran captured one of these and started modeling some of its own drones after it. Other US packages
have included counter-unmanned aerial systems, which are not about firing weapons but about the
detection and interdiction of enemy drones. That’s not the case with the 700 US-made
Switchblade drones. These are kamikaze drones, built to fly into a target and destroy it.
The Phoenix Ghost drones the US has sent are said to be very similar to the Switchblades.
A bit like the 136s, these things fly in the sky until they have identified a target, and
then they swoop down and hit it. This is why they are often called loitering munition. They loiter,
and then they drop down. They’re small enough to be carried in a backpack and can be launched
easily, making them very handy on the battlefield. A US official told the press, “These tactical
UAVs can be useful against Russian vehicles and artillery.” According to one Ukrainian commander,
similar drones have already been used against vehicles and tanks when the Russians were
sleeping. If Russia tries to do something similar, Ukraine might be helped somewhat by one of the 12
Titan systems the US has provided. These are the counter-UAV systems we just mentioned. Still,
even with all this defense technology, Russia has had a fair bit of success with its drones.
Ok, so we think you can now understand that much of this war is unmanned, which isn’t surprising
given that unmanned bomb technology such as the German doodlebug, was used back in WWII.
These weren’t smart weapons, though. They were basically a cross between a
missile and a plane. When the wings fell off, the missile came down. They wouldn’t
have stood a chance these days with all the available interception technology. In fact,
Ukraine reported a while back that 60% of the 136s were intercepted before they got to their targets.
Ukraine used anti-air missiles and electronic jamming devices to achieve this staggering figure.
Nonetheless, the remaining 40% did a lot of damage. A military analyst told the BBC,
“They fly low, and you can send them in waves. These swarms of drones are
much harder to counter by air defenses.” When that report came out in mid-October,
the BBC said that it wasn’t certain if Ukraine had been fighting back with similar kamikaze drones,
but the article said it was likely Ukraine had hit a Russian military base in western
Crimea with them. It may have also hit an airbase close to Sevastopol
and some ships in the Sevastopol harbor. It seems at that point, the US Switchblades hadn’t
been used yet. The best drones Ukraine has been using are its 50 or so Bayraktar TB2s from Turkey.
These state-of-the-art attack drones are also useful for reconnaissance and surveillance.
They might cost at least $2 million each and possibly as much as $5 million, so they won’t
be doing any kamikaze missions anytime soon. Russia has its own high-tech attack drones,
such as the S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter) and the new stealth combat drone named Grom
(Thunder) – what’s been called the “Russian answer to Valkyrie.” As Ukraine has done so
much damage with its TB2s, you might wonder why Russia hasn’t struck back with its
highly-advanced attack drones. The country also has a host of other top-level drones,
including the Altius-U, the Kronstadt Siriu, and the Kronshtadt Orion.
It seems Russia might be reluctant to pull out the big guns regarding its drones. According to
analysts, Ukraine's defenses have been much better than Russian defenses so far. Maybe right now,
Russia would prefer to sacrifice a few cheap Iranian imports over losing some
of its very expensive unmanned machinery. But let’s say Russia does pull out this trump
card at some point. What then? We think you know what.
Earlier this year, The Intercept said that the US military-industrial complex was trying to twist
the arm of President Joe Biden to allow them to send Ukraine the US’ cream of the crop in terms of
drones. It was said that the defense contractor General Atomics had already met with Ukrainian
representatives and discussed sending over some of the $32 million-a-unit “Hunter-Killer” MQ-9
Reaper drones armed with Hellfire missiles. These things can really rain hell down from
the sky, although it has to be said that when the US has used them in Afghanistan,
Somalia, and some other countries, raining hell down has sometimes consisted of maiming
and killing innocent civilians. These are weapons with frightening destructive power,
so if the US starts sending them to Ukraine, Russia’s retaliation will no doubt be severe.
At the end of the day, just because you have bigger weapons doesn’t mean you should use
them. After all, the victims are real. This isn’t a movie. Reaper drones would
mean young Russian men returning to Russia in pieces, which could lead to more Ukrainian
families being incinerated in their houses. Some restraint has to be shown. Escalation
is not a pleasant thought, at least for some pundits talking about this war.
Still, the so-called hawks in Washington might tell you differently. They might tell you this
war can be won pretty quickly with bigger, more advanced weapons. If the TB-2s can do
that much damage, what would a Reaper be able to do? It seems Ukraine wants them,
too. Politico recently reported, “Ukraine wants armed drones. Is the U.S. ready to deliver?”
There’s also something called the “Missile Technology Control Regime” to consider.
This was created to contain the use of weapons of mass destruction. So,
when Ukraine plays the Reaper card, maybe Russia will say, I’ll raise you five Sirius drones.
The war would sure get very ugly very soon. A US expert said, “In my view, Ukraine has the
right to defend itself, and some weapons supplies are warranted on that basis. But supplying large,
long-range drones would be a significant escalation in the types of systems supplied
to Ukraine, and as such shouldn’t go forward without significant scrutiny by Congress.”
As we said, some members of congress from the Democratic and Republican parties are trying
to push legislation through that will mean the Department of Defense can sell as many weapons
as it wants to Ukraine. It may happen. The Reapers may get sent. But the escalation threat is real.
The Intercept said another matter of concern is Ukraine’s “sizable neo-Nazi faction” and
the fact the country “is also home to one of the largest arms trafficking markets.” We
have to think about the future here. Time and again, the weapons the US has supplied abroad
have been used against its soldiers later. That said, the swarm attack that damaged
Admiral Makarov was something of a military accomplishment. As we are making this video,
we still don’t know what kind of drones were used in the attack. It’s still a changing story
in terms of all the details. While some articles talk about significant damage to Russian vessels,
others say slight damage, and one Russian news agency says all the drones were shot down. By
the time the Infographics Creative Team is done making this show, you might know more.
As for the question we asked at the start. Could this war be won with drones? We think the answer
is no. What they are doing is causing a lot of damage. They are playing a part in a war
of attrition. It’s one hit for Ukraine and one hit for Russia. The US might have sent
over those Switchblades, but we doubt the hawks will win, so no Reapers will be used by Ukraine
anytime soon. That kind of escalation doesn’t bear thinking about, so we reckon this war of
attrition will be the way ahead. To quote another analyst, “Drones are not a war-winning technology.
But they are a war-enabling technology.” Right now, we think Ukraine has the upper
hand regarding non-lethal drone technology, although recent reports state the average
lifespan of a surveillance drone in Ukraine is just a week. Still, the technology is advancing
so fast that they are getting better at not being seen or intercepted. A specialist in
drone technology recently told AP, “Everybody will have millions of drones that can’t be defeated.”
Welcome to the next installment of Black Mirror. Now you need to watch “Why Russia Can't Stop US
Weapons.” Or, have a look at “I Survived 100 Days Fighting in WORLD WAR 3 (Not Minecraft).