The first Women’s World Cup final sees defending champions USA take on European Championship
winners the Netherlands.
Jill Ellis’ USA, who are looking to secure a fourth World Cup with victory in Lyon’s
Parc Olympique Lyonnais, have never finished outside the top three at a World Cup, while
the Netherlands are participating in only their second World Cup ever, having reached
the Round of 16 in Canada 2015. The USA are firm favourites, but the Netherlands, coached
by Sarina Wiegman, will be eager to prove their doubters wrong.
You can track squad news for the Final, see the teams’ progression, and follow the game
as it happens on the OneFootball app.
Can anyone stop the USA’s front line? Captain Alex Morgan currently leads the goal-scoring
charts, with six, while Megan Rapinoe, who sat out the semi-final against England, has
five. The USA also have Carli Lloyd on three goals and three players who’ve scored two,
though these figures are padded somewhat by the result against Thailand. Nonetheless,
in Morgan and Rapinoe, Jill Ellis’s side have prolific scorers and, even when Rapinoe
was benched, Christen Press stepped in to score against the Lionesses.
The forward line do three key things that make them, and Team USA, extremely hard to
play against, notwithstanding the fact that they are also extremely quick and dynamic
with and without the ball.
Firstly, they can set a tempo for the USA’s pressing game that makes it hard to play out.
There’s a strong argument that Press is better at, well, pressing than Rapinoe. Against
a side like the Netherlands, who may try to play out through Bloodworth in particular,
it makes sense to pick the Utah Royals winger, who was so effective at stymying England’s
build-up.
Because of the pace and ability to cut inside that Tobin Heath, Rapinoe, and Press all have,
it also leaves opposition full-backs with a decision to make – push up to support
attacks and offer a passing option, in which case there’s space in behind for the quick
USA wingers, or hang back, in which case they will drop off and then have time to receive
the ball in space and then run with it.
The USA front three don’t just make space for themselves, either. It’s noticeable,
especially when the USA have a free kick in the middle third, but also in build-up, that
the two central midfielders who flank Julie Ertz push up between the lines. Two of Lavelle,
Mewis, and Horan can and will make late runs, even pushing beyond the front three, but it’s
the front three’s movement and the danger they pose that puts defences into two minds
and facilitates this exploitation of space – either the centre-backs will follow the
front line, creating room in behind, or leave them, which means the line between defence
and midfield is totally overloaded and the USA can pass their way through.
While Morgan, Rapinoe and the others get headlines for their goals, their contribution to defence
and build-up will be just as important.
The midfield area will be tightly contested – even if both teams seek to bypass it with
longer passing, then late runs from central midfield could be the key to unlocking two
good defences. In this area of the pitch, perhaps no midfielder at the World Cup has
impressed as much as converted centre-back Julie Ertz. While others have caught the eye
with goals or assists, Ertz has given a masterclass in defensive positioning, screening, and intelligent
use of the ball, the solid base that allows the rest of the USA team to attack.
Against Ertz, who will be helped by the other two central midfielders picked by Jill Ellis,
Sherida Spitse and Jackie Groenen will seek to dominate for the Netherlands. While van
de Donk does drop back, she plays much more as a 10 – Spitse is a 6, while Groenen’s
role is to link play, cover a huge amount of ground on the right hand side, and help
win back the ball.
The danger for the Netherlands is that Ertz shackles Groenen, which forces van de Donk
to drop off to help link midfield to the front three, thereby denying Vivianne Miedema support.
It would also mean that the Netherlands right wing has to come infield more, allowing Crystal
Dunn greater room to attack.
Groenen is absolutely key to how the Netherlands progress the ball – Spitse does not have
the same ability in open play – and Ertz will look to limit her influence. The degree
to which she succeeds will go a long way to determining the outcome.
The Netherlands have not been as free-scoring as the USA – Miedema leads their scoring
charts with three goals, while Lieke Martens has two. At the top of the assists chart,
though, is Sherida Spitse, whose prowess from set-pieces is a potent weapon in the Dutch
arsenal.
According to Statsbomb’s set piece expert Nikos Overheul, the key is Spitse’s delivery.
She can hit the ball in a straight line over long distances with pace and accuracy. This
allows the best Dutch headers of the ball, Miedema and defenders like van der Gragt,
to be positioned far from the point of delivery. As Overheul points out, this means that against
zonal defences, who will usually stack their best headers of the ball nearer the point
of delivery, Spitse’s delivery allows Miedema to target the zone further away, where the
weaker defenders are.
A good example was the corner against Sweden where Miedema hit the bar, helped by a Lindhal
finger-tip. Spitse’s delivery, hit straight but dropping, means that Miedema’s movement
need only be minimal to give her a free header – the ball effectively drops onto her, while
Sweden’s best defenders have been bypassed, and weaker aerial defenders like Asllani are
sucked towards the flight of the ball and misread it.
Against a strong USA team who will likely be on the front foot, but whose keeper Alyssa
Naeher is only 5ft9 and can struggle to command her box, Spitse’s set-piece delivery could
be the key to creating chances for the imperious Miedema to convert.
As Gracenote, the sports analysts, have observed, the Netherlands are the first team ranked
outside the top four by FIFA to reach a World Cup final since Brazil in 2007, and the lowest
ranked team to play in the final since FIFA World rankings were introduced in 2003.
The USA will be heavy favourites and clearly justify that tag, but the Netherlands have
shown over the course of the tournament they are capable of maximising their strengths.
Whether that will be enough to overcome Morgan and her side in Lyon remains to be seen.