FOLKS, YOU KNOW MY FIRST GUEST AS THE EMMY AWARDWINNING HOST OF
MSNBC'S "ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES."
PLEASE WELCOME BACK TO "THE LATE SHOW," CHRIS HAYES!
♪ ♪ ♪
WELCOME BACK.
NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
>> GOOD TO SEE YOU.
>> Stephen: DID YOU GET ANY SLEEP LAST NIGHT OR WERE YOU UP
CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS ALL NIGHT ON WHAT HAPPENED ON SUPER
TUESDAY?
>> I WAS UP UNTIL 4:00 A.M.
THE PROBLEM WITH DOING A 1:00 A.M. SHOW IS YOU HAVE TO
CAFFEINATE -- >> Stephen: YOUR 1:00 A.M.
SHOW WAS LIVE?
>> WE WERE LIVE AT 1:00 A.M.
THIS MORNING.
>> Stephen: DO WE KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT CALIFORNIA YET?
>> WE HAD A PICTURE.
WE KNEW SANDERS WAS GOING TO WIN ABOUT NINE OR 10 POINTS AND COME
OUT WITH A NET DELEGATE LEAD FROM CALIFORNIA BUT NOT THE
PARTICULAR S.
>> Stephen: STILL, 24 HOURS LATER, WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY
WHAT THE RESULTS ARE.
>> AND WE PROBABLY WON'T KNOW THE FINAL, FINAL RESULTS IN
CALIFORNIA FOR MAYBE A WEEK.
>> Stephen: WHY?
THEY HAVE ADDING MACHINES IN CALIFORNIA.
>> I KNOW -- >> Stephen: IT'S NOT A CAUCUS.
WE KNOW IOWA WAS-- WE DON'T ACTUALLY KNOW WHAT HAPPENED.
>> I HAVE HAD CALIFORNIANS-- I HAVE HAD CALIFORNIANS EXPLAIN
THIS TO ME SOMEWHAT DEFENSIVELY, AND I STILL DON'T UNDERSTAND.
THEY JUST TAKE A REALLY LONG TIME TO COUNT VOTES THERE.
>> Stephen: WEED IS LEGAL THERE.
( LAUGHTER )
WITH IT.
>> Stephen: BIDEN HAD A HUGE SUPER TUESDAY.
>> BIG NIGHT.
VERY BIG NIGHT.
>> Stephen: DID YOU SEE THIS COMING?
AND KEEP IN MIND THE ANSWER IS NO.
( LAUGHTER ).
>> I KIND OF DID.
I MEAN, LOOK, I TALKED TO -- >> Stephen: REALLY?
>> I HAD NO IDEA.
I DIDN'T SEE IT COMING.
NEXT QUESTION.
>> Stephen: WHAT MADE YOU SEE IT COMING BECAUSE--
>> I TALKED TO A POLLSTER-- MONDAY NIGHT I TALKED TO A
POLLSTER WHO HAD BEEN IN THE FIELD WITH A POLL SORT OF THAT
DAY, THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BECAUSE MONDAY WAS THE DAY
BUTTIGIEG AND KLOBUCHAR AND BETO ALL ENDORSED WHO SAID, "LOOK THE
NUMBERS WE'RE SEEING ARE CRAZY, THE MOVEMENT IN BIDEN'S
DIRECTION.
HE'S GOING TO HAVE A VERY BIG DAY TOMORROW."
>> Stephen: SO SOUTH CAROLINA REALLY DID MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD.
>> YES, IT DID, IT DID.
>> Stephen: WOW?
>>.
ISN'T THIS KIND OF A STRANGE POLITICAL SYSTEM WHERE ONE STATE
MAKES THAT TURN.
HE LOST THRE IN A ROW.
WHY DIDN'T THOSE THREE SINK HIM?
WHY DID ONE BRING HIM BACK?
>> IT'S A GOOD QUESTION.
THE AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS ARE THE CORE BASE OF THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY.
AND THERE'S NO WAY TO WIN THE NOMINATION WITHOUT LARGE SUPPORT
BY BLACK VOTERS.
AND SO, THERE WAS A KIND OF SIGNAL THERE SENT WHEN BLACK
VOTERS VOTED SO OVERWHELMINGLY FOR JOE BIDEN ABOUT WHAT HIS
PROSPECTS WERE GOING FORWARD.
NUMBER TWO, THERE'S A A LOT OF PRIMARY VOTERS.
NOT ALL OF THEM, BUT I WOULD EVEN SAY THE MAJORITY, WHO JUST
FEEL LIKE THEY'VE BEEN GIVEN A TEST QUESTION THEY DON'T HAVE
THE ANSWER TO WHICH IS, WHO IS BEST TO BEAT TRUMP?"
AND THEY'RE GOING AROUND SAYING, "I DON'T KNOW.
I'M NOT A PROFESSIONAL."
PEOPLE ASK ME.
"WHO SHOULD I VOTE FOR."
AND I SAID, "VOTE FOR WHO YOU WANTED TO BE PRESIDENT."
AND THEY SAY, "I WANT BARACK OBAMA TO BE PRESIDENT."
>> Stephen: THE CLOSEST YOU CAN GET.
>> I CAN'T HELP YOU THERE.
BUT THIS IDEA THAT PEOPLE WERE REALLY LOOKING FOR SIGNALS FROM
PEOPLE ABOUT SOME-- SIGNAL ABOUT WHO WOULD BE THE PERSON-- GLI
HEARD A FEW THINGS THERE THAT OBAMA WAS SENDING SIGNALS THAT
HE THOUGHT IT WAS JOE.
>> I DON'T KNOW.
I THINK-- I MEAN, LOOK -- >> Stephen: SUSAN RICE
ENDORSED JOE.
AND THEY WERE LIKE, "THAT WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED IF OBAMA
HADN'T GIVEN THE HIGH SIGN.
>> I'M NOT SURE ABOUT THAT, ACTUALLY.
THE ONE THING I WILL SAY ABOUT THIS IS THERE'S CLEARLY
SKEPTICISM TOWARDS BERNIE SANDERS BY THE-- BY THE KIND OF
MAINSTREAMPARTY ELITE, RIGHT, THE FOLKS THAT SERVE IN THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION -- >> Stephen: AND MSNBC.
>> YES.
>> Stephen: SOME PEOPLE ON YOUR NETWORK SHOULD BE
MEDICATED.
>> SOME OF MY COLLEAGUES ARE ALSO SKEPTICAL.
>> Stephen: YES.
>> I THINK A LOT OF THOSE FEARS ON THE ELECTABILITY FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY QUITE OVERSTATED.
I ACTUALLY THINK THE DATA THAT WE HAVE SHOWS THAT I THINK
SANDERS AND BIDEN WOULD BOTH BE VERY COMPETITIVE AGAINST TRUMP.
>> Stephen: AND AFTER 2016 ANYBODY WHO SAYS THEY KNOW
ANYTHING ABOUT ANYTHING IS LYING.
AND ACTUALLY, THEY WERE ALWAYS LYING.
WE JUST FOUND OUT IN 2016.
>> YES MY BIG TAKEAWAY FROM 2016 IS HUMILITY ABOUT THE FUTURE,
WHICH IS UNWRITTEN.
WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING, AND IT'S SORT OF A BAD PUNDIT TENDENCY,
WHATEVER JUST HAPPENED, EXTRAPOLATE THE LINE OUT
FOREVER.
"BIDEN WON YESTERDAY!
IT'S OVER.
BERNIE NEEDS TO DROP OUT!" EVERYBODY NEEDS TO CALM DOWN.
>> Stephen: BIDEN HAD A BIG NIGHT.
WILL HE END UP OUT OF THIS AS THE DELEGATE LEADER?
>> HE.
>> Stephen: WILL WOW, THAT'S PRETTY BIG.
IS THAT IT?
BIDEN, HE'S DOMINANT, HE NEVER GIVES UP THE LEAD, AND DOES
BERNIE HAVE A CHANCE?
KEEP IN MIND THE ANSWER IS YES.
>> I'M GOING TO START DOING ALL MY INTERVIEWS THIS WAY.
>> Stephen: YOU SHOULD.
>> ONCE YOU GET A DELEGATE LEAD IT IS HARD TO GIVE IT UP BECAUSE
OF THE WAY THAT PROPORTIONAL DELEGATE ALLOCATION WORKS.
>> Stephen: HAS ANYONE EVER HAD THE DELEGATE LEAD AFTER
SUPER TUESDAY AND THEN NOT GOTTEN IT?
NOT IN THE LAST TWO COMPETITIVE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES, WHICH ARE
THE CLOSEST APPLES TO APPLES.
BARACK OBAMA EMERGED FROM A SMALLER SUPER TUESDAY IN 2008
WITH A NARROW 13-DELEGATE LEAD, AND HIS CAMPAIGN ISSUED A VERY
AUDACIOUS MEMO SAYING, "WE LOOKED AT THE MAP.
WE HAVE A LEAD AND WE'RE NOT GIVING IT UP."
IT WAS A BIT MUCH AT THE TIME.
>> Stephen: A LITTLE BALLSY.
>> THE PROBLEM FOR SANDERS IS IN ORDER TO GET-- TO OVERCOME THAT
LEAD HE NEEDS STATES WHERE HE HAS BLOW-OUTS BECAUSE FIGHTING
TO ROUGH PARITY DOESN'T HELP YOU CLAW BACK THE DELEGATES.
THAT SAID, I WILL SAY THIS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF IT: THERE WAS
A REASON THAT IT TOOK SO LONG FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT AND OTHER
FOLKS TO CONSOLIDATE BEHIND JOE BIDEN.
THE REASON WAS THEY WERE UNDER-WHELMED BY HIS
CAMPAIGNING.
>> Stephen: YEAH.
OR LACK OF CAMPAIGNING.
>> THEY LOOKED AT HIM AND SAY THEY SAID, "THIS DOESN'T SEEM
GREAT.
THIS-- THIS DOESN'T SEEM LIKE GREAT CAMPAIGNING.
I LOVE JOE"-- I'M SPEAKING IN THE VOICE OF THESE PEOPLE NOW.
"I LOVE JOE.
I THINK HE'S GREAT.
I'VE KNOWN HIM FOR YEARS.
I DON'T KNOW."
THE ONE THING I WOULD SAY IS THERE IS STILL MORE CAMPAIGNING
TO DO.
>> Stephen: YES.
>> AND THE FEARS THAT PEOPLE HAVE HAVEN'T COMPLETELY JUST
GONE AWAY BECAUSE HE'S CONSOLIDATED THIS SUPPORT.
>> Stephen: I'VE HEARD A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT BERNIE
SANDERS SAYING, "I COULDN'T-- I COULDN'T VOTE FOR JOE."
AND I'VE HEARD PEOPLE WHO WANTED JOE GOING, "I JUST DON'T SEE
MYSELF VOTING FOR BERNIE SANDERS."
WHO DO YOU THINK IS LESS LIKELY-- OR IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
FRACTIOUS ABOUT THIS?
>> I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER ABOUT THAT.
I AGREE.
THERE ARE POOLS OF VOTERS IN EACH COALITION --
>> Stephen: OR IS THAT OVERSTATED?
THE SORT OF THING YOU SAY DURING THE CAMPAIGN.
IT'S NEVER SAY DIE THE ENTIRE TIME.
BUT IS ANY DEMOCRAT REALLY GOING TO GO INTO A VOTING BOOTH ON
NOVEMBER 3, IF IT'S NOT THE GUY THEY SUPPORTED AND LOOK AT THOSE
TWO BUTTONS AND GO, "YOU KNOW WHAT?
I THINK A LITTLE MORE TRUMP, THANK YOU VERY MUCH."
"THANK YOU, SIR, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER."
>> RIGHT.
>> Stephen: YES.
>> AS YOU SUGGEST, THEY THIK HISTORY POLLING AND THE NATURE
OF TRUMP ALL SUGGEST THAT A VERY OVERWHELMING PERCENTAGE OF THOSE
VOTERS WILL VOTE FOR THE NOMINEE.
BUT THE OTHER THING I WOULD SAY IS THE MARGINS MATTER, RIGHT.
THERE'S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 82% OF SANDERS VOTERS VOTING FOR JOE
BIDEN, OR 82% OF BIDEN VOTERS VOTING FOR SANDERS.
WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO IT, BUT IT DOES MEAN CONSOLIDATING
UNITY AN SUPPORT DOWN THE STRETCH, STITCHING TOGETHER A
COALITION THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TORN APART IS GOING TO BE KEY.
>> Stephen: THIS IS SOMETHING THEY-- I KNOW THAT IS IMPORTANT,
BUT I HAVEN'T HEARD ABOUT OR I WENT TO BED BEFORE YOU GUYS
STARTED GETTING THE INFORMATION ON IT LAST NIGHT, IS HOW WAS
VOTER TURNOUT?
LAST NIGHT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEST INDICATION OF WHAT THE
ENTHUSIASM WAS ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE?
>> IT WAS HIGH.
IT WAS VERY HIGH.
IN VIRGINIA, SUFFICIENCY RECORD-SETTING TURNOUT --
>> Stephen: I HEARD HIGHER THAN 2008 WITH OBAMA.
>> HIGHER THAN 2008.
>> Stephen: WOW.
>> HUGE TURNOUT IN VIRGINIA.
BIG TURNOUT BOOST-- THERE ARE A BUNCH OF STATES WE DON'T HAVE
APPLES-TO-APPLES COMPARISONS BECAUSE THEY HAD CAUCUSES AND
NOW THEY'RE PRIMARIES. BUT IT TURNS OUT WHEN YOU REPLACE A
CAUCUS WITH A PRIMARY YOU GET A LOT MORE VOTERS.
IN A PLACE LIKE COLORADO I THINK YOU HAD 300% HIGHER TURNOUT.
ACROSS THE BOARD, LAST NIGHT LOOKED PRETTY GOOD-- PRETTY GOOD
TO VERY GOOD FROM A TURNOUT PERSPECTIVE.
>> Stephen: ARE THERE--
>> THANK YOU!
I PERSONALLY MADE IT HAPPEN.
>> Stephen: WE HAVE TO TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK, AND I
KNOW YOU HAVE TO GO DO YOUR SHOW, BUT IF YOU CAN HANG OUT WE
WILL DO SOME MORE WITH CHRIS HAYES.
STICK AROUND.