On Monday, May 13, 2019, NASA declared: “We are going to the Moon to stay” by 2024.
It’s an exciting announcement; the return to a place humans haven’t set foot on in
more than 45 years.
A serious goal that will test the ability of technology and engineering, as well as
the bravery of the men and women who will carry out this task.
But we’ve also heard announcements like this before, many times.
How will the mission come together?
What are the risks?
What’s new this time?
The White House has been working on its plans to send humans to the Moon for several months
now, pushed forward by US Vice President Mike Pence and NASA’s new administrator Jim Bridenstine.
The original plan was to send crewed missions to the Moon by 2028.
And then several weeks ago, the target date of 2024 was floated, and it was met by skepticism,
concern, and a little excitement.
Returning to the Moon would be amazing.
A serious goal, and the next step in becoming a space-faring civilization.
But we’ve heard sweeping goals like this before.
We’re going to Mars, we’re going back to the Moon, we’re sending humans to an
asteroid.
We’re building a space station out by the Moon.
And now, humans to the Moon by 2024.
One of the reasons for the 2024 deadline is to minimize the chance that a new White House
administration would switch goals.
Okay, what’s the plan?
The name for NASA’s new program is Project Artemis, named after the Greek goddess and
twin sister of Apollo.
Also the name of Andy Weir’s new book about a city on the Moon.
Coincidence?
This new program works with most of the existing hardware that’s currently under construction
by NASA, but shuffles the schedule around a bit.
The original strategy was to first construct the Gateway in lunar space using the enormous
Space Launch System.
Future missions would carry humans in the Orion spacecraft to the Gateway, which they
could then use as a platform for sending astronauts down to the surface.
Under this strategy, the first astronaut would set foot on the Moon in 2028.
The new Artemis plan pushes the construction of the Gateway back several years, building
one core module by 2022, and then using this as the stepping stone back to the Moon by
2024.
Here’s the new schedule:
Over the course of 2019, NASA is going to partner with nine US companies to deliver
payloads to the Moon.
As early as this year, the first missions could start sending new science instruments
and technologies to the lunar surface.
These commercial partnerships will continue over the years as NASA continues its lunar
exploration beyond 2024.
In 2020, NASA’s Exploration Mission-1 will launch.
This will be an uncrewed flight of the Space Launch System carrying an Orion spacecraft
into an orbit near to the Moon.
Then in 2022 will be Exploration Mission-2.
Another launch of the Space Launch System, carrying astronauts on a mission around the
Moon for the first time in over 50 years.
Later in 2022, a commercial partner like United Launch Alliance, SpaceX or Blue Origin will
launch the first module for the Gateway: the power and propulsion element.
It’ll have a solar electric propulsion system and provide power and communications for the
astronauts.
In 2023 a rover will be sent to the lunar pole, to search for water-ice mixed into the
regolith at the Moon’s permanently shadowed craters.
This will provide more information so that future astronauts will be able to live off
the land, turning water ice into rocket fuel, air to breathe and water to drink.
Finally, in 2024 on the third launch of the Space Launch System, humans will return to
the Moon.
They’ll stop in at the Gateway, and then take a lunar lander down to the surface near
the Moon’s south pole.
Over the next few years, astronauts will continue with additional missions to the Moon, building
up capabilities to attempt missions to Mars by the 2030s.
Are they serious?
Is this actually going to happen?
I’ll talk about that in a second, but first I’d like to thank:
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This week, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said that NASA was going to need an additional
$1.6 billion in funding this year if it’ll have any chance of reaching the Moon by 2024.
Not only that, but this amount was just a downpayment to catch up development to that
deadline, and that it would need even more funding in the coming years to reach that
deadline.
This additional budget would set aside $1 billion for the Human Lunar Landing System.
NASA will purchase a commercial lander that can transport astronauts from the Gateway
to the surface of the Moon and back.
Blue Origin’s Jeff Bezos coincidentally presented the Blue Moon strategy this week,
building a landing system that could put tonnes of hardware onto the surface of the Moon.
And with an enhanced propulsion system, it could even support a crewed lander.
It looks like you just got your first customer Jeff.
It calls for an additional $651 million for the Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft,
to adapt their development to the new plan.
An additional $132 million in exploration technologies, like the Gateway’s solar electric
propulsion system, and methods of converting lunar ice into water.
And $90 million for more scientific exploration of the surface of the Moon’s polar regions.
This means the President’s total budget request for NASA will be $22.6 billion in
fiscal year 2020, about a billion dollars more than Congress approved for 2019.
This is a seriously big budget.
But is it enough?
According to Casey Dreier, from the Planetary Society, he and other aerospace engineers
estimated that NASA would probably need $4-5 billion in additional funding every year to
reach that 2024 deadline.
If there’s one thing we’ve seen, pushing the limits of space exploration costs money,
and budgets run high.
The Space Launch System is already billions of dollars over budget, and wasn’t specifically
designed with lunar landings in mind.
The Office of the Inspector General made a detailed investigation and has estimated that
the Boeing is expected to spend $8.9 billion on SLS through 2021, and delivery of the Core
Stage has slipped 2.5 years already.
What about the commercial partners?
SpaceX just successfully launched the Falcon Heavy for the second time, with more launches
coming soon.
So it does look like there are rockets that could assist the Space Launch System in sending
the hardware into lunar orbit and down to the surface of the Moon.
Now you know the plan, and some of the constraints.
Is it going to happen?
Obviously, we have no idea.
Experience tells us that space exploration takes longer and costs more than anyone expects.
A lot more.
I think we’ll know pretty quickly if the White House and Congress are serious about
this plan if we see the budget increase to match the demands for this faster timetable.
But if the budgets don’t happen, if construction on the Space Launch System stalls, if the
commercial partners aren’t ready with their hardware.
If safety gets compromised in any way, we’ll see the timelines slip.
This will mean new administrations, changing plans, changing priorities and maybe changing
destinations.
It’s what happens.
What do you think?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
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