How does underlying economic theory explain why the price is behaving?
Why it is because I mean, I've been studying economics.
I'm 40 years old.
Now, I started studying economics at 16 and everything.
I've learned and read over more than two decades.
It just doesn't make any sense in the context of the silver market in particular.
I mean, I mean, obviously, gold is much higher than where it was in
1980.
But in terms of silver that there is something more to the story than
just basic
demand-supply fundamentals.
A lot of analysts have said this over the last few years that these
markets gold and silver is very opaque.
It's very hard to get accurate information.
I mean you do have some organizations like the world gold Council on
the salt Institute, putting out their view of the industry.
Some people think their numbers are sort of, you know, reasonably
accurate.
Some people think that they are way off.
So yeah, so, I mean, I mean, the only real way to get a feel for this
is, is by closely analyzing what happens in terms of the market.
And obviously, the hardest part of this is that the market is, we're
talking about the global market.
So, particularly in say, in terms of India.
India is a big bar of silver.
So, when it, when the Indians are buying large amounts of silver, that
obviously places strained right across the wholesale market across the
world.
And then you start to hear stories out of London with wholesalers or traders.
Can't gets you have to wait three months for in terms of deliveries.
So so again, so I mean look at yeah, I met him.
There are different points of view.
It's very hard to know exactly what's going on.
But in terms of the objective data, I mean, I think the solvents to
just come out with a, with a report saying that investment demand is
expected to Peak 2022 and 2022.
The highest level ever there is a deficit.
And when we look at the
Comex data in terms of both the eligible and the rigid categories were
back to where we were and say July 2020 in terms of the overall stock
of supposed still work in the comics Warehouse depository V.
And obviously the, you know, we're seeing shortages and we're seeing
stress right away at the commodity complex.
I mean, last year this time.
I mean, everyone was talking Silva, it was the Hot Topic, you and I
were doing a lot of videos.
We're getting a lot of views.
Whereas now, it seems like the market is sort of moved on a lot of
commentary about cryptolocker commentary about uranium.
And I think some of the steam has come out of commentary about gold
and silver, but it will be obviously very interesting to see what
happens as we go forward throughout 2022.
The Silva to put out a report saying that demand will Peak will be the
highest ever in 2022, in terms of investment demand.
And there is a deficit in terms of Demand versus Supply.
When you look at total man who both the terms of investment industrial
use versus what's coming out of the mines, but somehow the price is
still going to 45 percent.
So admittedly I haven't reviewed the report myself.
So when I get a chance in the next couple days, I want to download the
report and obviously try to understand how do they.
I mean, obviously if you've got a record demand, if you've got a
surging inflation, you know, if you have
lot of people going to commodity is because they're nervous about in
terms of the bond market or the share market, Etc.
And we're starting to see the stock market coming under some
significant pressure.
You would expect that commodity prices and a lot of commodity prices
have gone through quite High substantially, but obviously, Golden
Circle bar, have not.
And when you're getting a forecaster saying that Silver's is like to
45 percent and price, you start to scratch your head and saying, well,
how does that make any sense?
I mean, the only
Potential explanation that may make.
Some sense, has obviously if there's a significant increase in
interest rates, whether US Federal Reserve or by other central banks
that could start to tame down inflation and inflation expectations,
and there could be some that could have some impact on in terms of
price on good terms of gone.
So but but if it believes the demand and Supply picture is what the
silver stitute suggested, is it.
You would expect higher prices going and you know, going through 2022
and to want to look for a lot of investors.
Everyone is still extremely frustrated.
I mean if we look at where we were in 2020, I think we were stuck in
the teens for quite a few years and then all of a sudden in I think it
was the july/august of 2020.
The the market started to search and we went from about 17 dollars an
ounce us all the way up to about twenty nine, thirty dollars and 42
years. We've been we haven't been able to crack.
Dollars.
Now, I had some ideas as to why that is there have been things
happening behind the background that I can't speak openly yet, but
there could well be a new thesis a new explanation as to why the price
is stuck, where it is and and and they could be, I think something
that maybe most of your guests and most analysts in the market have
been missing so it will obviously see.
Whether the things that I've been brought to my attention, whether
they, you know, whether they come to the surface or not, but but yeah,
but but but you know, basic economic theory suggests that the price
should be able to crack $30 with all the factors that we've been able
to see over the last 24 months and it hasn't and so there is something
fundamentally wrong in the market.
And so, this is where you get into the big debate to be honest.
And and there's a big debate among your guests.
You have people like
Cried Kemp key or a David Morgan, who talk about systemic multi-decade
corruption and manipulation the market.
And then you have some of your other guests.
Like Rick rule, who says there's short-term manipulation, but there is
no systemic, long-term plan or conspiracy to manipulate the market.
We obviously have the biggest Global debt bubble in world history in
the context of Australia.
We've got the biggest house all day bubble, on record in terms of
United States, corporate debt, public sector dead are basically.
Off the charts, but also Consumer Debt.
In America has been growing rapidly over the last, you know, probably
34 years.
And so if interest rates were to rise too high, we would basically see
a new financial crisis, you know, way bigger than say, not 2008, or
1929.
And just in the case of Australia.
We are in the midst of a federal election.
So the election is on the 21st of May, so there are some journalists
and I actually spoke to a journalist this morning.
For the Australian Broadcasting Corporation who's actually doing a
story about coming interest rate, Rises and households there borrowed
too much particularly in the last two years.
When interest rates were at a record low and what are the
implications?
And obviously know what not only what are the implications for
households.
But also what are the implications that you for the economy as a whole
but also politically as well.
So it's a very big story but I think what we're going to see is some
interest rate rises in 2022, maybe early 2023.
And obviously, because there are so much additional
Debt created in the last two years.
What's that going to mean?
Is that consumption?
In Australia is going to for dramatically the economy is going to slow
and then that's when the RBS going to start cutting again.
And and that's why I think we're going to see negative interest rates
in 2024.
I mean the really big tell in Australia was the so we have a regulator
called the Australian Prudential regulation, Authority, which
regulates the bank's they.
So in the in the midst of last year with everyone talking about
covid-19 and all that.
Paraphernalia, but also in terms of inflation, out of nowhere.
They are the, a pro came out and issued guidance to the to the
Australian banking sector to get ready for negative interest rates.
And basically, what they have laid out is that by October 20, 22,
Australian banks, must have so-called quote tactical solutions, to be
able to implement negative interest rates.
So, so why would the, the banking regulator?
Are in the midst of talk about inflation that you must be ready for
negative interest rates.
It's because I think they're foreshadowing that by next year or 2024.
We're going to start to see dramatic aggressive rate cuts, and we're
gonna start to see negative interest rates and that's obviously going
to mean ongoing and rampant stagflation.
So we have stagflation at the moment.
I called stagflation in mid 2020s.
And so now a lot more competitors are talking about stagflation.
I think stagflation pressures are going to exacerbate
In.
And it all comes back to the central political premises is that the
elites that are running, the central banks in the government's.
And these International bodies like the water going to look for them.
They don't want to lose their political power.
They want to pursue the the agenda that they wish to continue on with
and if they raise his rates, interest rates to too much, they will
basic claps their own power, and they're not in the business of doing
that. So that's why I think that, you know, if you're if the question,
you're asking me done.
Agony is where is my medium?
Term macroeconomic forecast for precious metals.
I think it's extremely strong and it's nothing to do with economics.
I think it's pure Global power pole.