In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the form
of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned only
with a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Everton. Welcome to Sensible Transfers.
If Everton fans were worried about the style of football their team
were playing under Frank Lampard at the end of last season, their fears might
be allayed by talk of a play style shift that is taking place this summer at Goodison Park.
Through the course of pre-season,
Everton players have talked of a move from the more pragmatic approach that was adopted
in last season’s relegation battle towards a more possession-based system next season.
Lampard has already made big steps towards being able to make this shift in play style
by bringing in James Tarkowski on a free transfer from Burnley earlier in the summer. Although his
qualities in possession have perhaps not been showcased too often during his time at Turf Moor,
Tarkowski raises the level for ball-playing centre backs at the club
and presents a platform upon which to build a more possession-based style.
Everton will also need to improve in the midfield
area if they are to develop a more possession-heavy approach next season.
Under Lampard, Everton have tended to line up in a 3-4-3 with a midfield two of Abdoulaye Doucoure
and Allan where available. Behind Allan, Everton have Jean-Phillipe Gbamin as a depth option who is
coming back to the club after a good loan spell in Russia with CSKA Moscow. Doucoure’s back-ups
are Andre Gomes and Tom Davies, neither of whom have really thrived in the Everton midfield.
A rotation option for Doucoure would be a smart area to recruit for next season.
The club clearly feel that improvement in this area is possible,
having been linked to Sporting’s Matheus Nunes and, more recently, Harry Winks of Tottenham.
There are a couple of good options on the market who would fit the sort of
profile that Everton need if they are to shift to a more possessional side.
Chelsea’s Ruben Loftus-Cheek makes an enticing prospect here. First and foremost, Loftus-Cheek
is a ball carrier. In the last year, he’s in the 99th percentile for both Progressive Carrying
Distance and Progressive Carries, putting up 59.11 carries per 90 minutes in the course of the year.
He’s also in the 99th percentile for midfielders in Dribbles Attempted,
Dribbles Completed and Players Dribbled Past, attributes that help him evade an
opposition press and make him perfect for a team looking to possess the ball.
Thanks to his height and physicality, he’s also a decent option aerially in the midfield.
However, Loftus-Cheek offers a profile that Everton already have in their squad,
even if he would be an upgrade on these options. Instead, our pick is a
player who can offer a little more in terms of creative passing: Real Madrid’s Dani Ceballos.
Ceballos is also a player who offers a lot in terms of possession.
Rather than doing this through carrying, though, he does this through passing.
The 25-year-old is a deep lying player who has played in a two-man pivot in the past.
From these deeper areas, he is able to coordinate ball progression through his passing.
On top of this, Ceballos can offer something that Everton have been
missing for a couple of seasons now: a creative outlet in the final third.
Importantly, the Spaniard already has Premier League experience,
joining Arsenal on loan for two seasons between 2019 and 2021. During that time,
he offered good production, putting up over 3.5 box entries per 90 in both seasons
and hitting 0.14 expected assists in his second season at the Emirates Stadium.
Ceballos would be a feasible option for Everton, too. He’s on a 2023 contract
and he picked up fewer than 300 league minutes last season for Real Madrid.
One of the highest-profile signings in the Premier League this summer has
been the transfer of Richarlison to Tottenham Hotspur for a fee
of around £50m. This presents Everton with an obvious area to sign a replacement.
Practically, they need to find a player who can play anywhere across the front line;
a player who is mobile and able to replicate Richarlison’s skill set:
ball carrying, dribbling, winning fouls, and taking chances.
Red Bull Salzburg’s Noah Okafor fits this profile nicely. The Swiss winger can play
on either side and has played up front in a strike partnership for Salzburg.
A mobile, technical player, Okafor has thrived in the forward position within a Red Bull system,
picking up 0.29 expected goals and 0.2 expected assists per 90 minutes this season.
Moving from a high intensity, transitional system to a more possessional style might not benefit
Okafor, but he does have 400 minutes of Champions League experience to his name after last season.
He’s on a 2024 contract but he hasn’t been a full-time starter for Salzburg,
which might be an issue for Everton given they’re looking to replace one of their better players
with this deal. Borussia Dortmund’s interest in the youngster might dispel that worry, though.
Our pick for a Sensible Transfer here is Omar Marmoush,
an Egyptian playing for VfL Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga.
Marmoush has spent the last two seasons on loan at St Pauli and Stuttgart respectively,
playing as a striker on both sides as well as picking up minutes on either wing.
He’s a good ball carrier and wins a lot of fouls for his team through dribbling the ball.
Off the ball, he also offers good upside through high pressing and other defensive actions and,
most importantly for Everton, he gets into good positions in front of goal.
All of these make him the perfect replacement for Richarlison and a better option than Okafor.
Last season, Stuttgart narrowly avoided relegation but that didn’t
stop Marmoush putting up good expected goals numbers at a rate of 0.27 per 90.
He did underperform this figure in actual goals but it’s worth noting that Stuttgart
only scored 41 goals in 34 Bundesliga games last season and that they were without a
proper targetman in attack for most of the year after Sasa Kalajdzic suffered a serious injury.
Marmoush is on a contract which ends in 2023 which would make him very available for Everton,
meaning now could be the time for the Merseyside club to try and bring the 23-year-old in.
He’s also successfully made the step up from the 2.Bundesliga to the Bundesliga,
suggesting that he would scale well again should he need to make the step up to the Premier League.