RESORT, WHERE HE IS HOSTING THE PRESIDENT OF THE CHINA FOR THEIR
SUMMIT. JOINING US NOW IS MICHAEL
McFAUL, WHO IS THE FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA.
PROFESSOR McFAUL, THANKS FOR BEING WITH UWITH US.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. >> LET ME ASK HOW YOU THINK
RUSSIA WILL RESPOND TO THIS. RUSSIA OBVIOUSLY HAS BEEN
ASSAD'S GREATEST ALLY IN SYRIA, NOT JUST IN POLITICS BUT IN
MILITARY MATTERS AS WELL. LOTS OF RUSSIAN MILITARY
PERSONNEL. LOTS OF RUSSIAN WEAPONRY.
LOTS OF RUSSIAN MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS ON THE GROUND IN SYRIA.
HOW ARE THEY GOING TO RESPOND TO THIS?
>> WELL, AS YOU'VE JUST BEEN DISCUSSING, IF THERE ARE RUSSIAN
CASUALTIES, THAT WILL TRIGGER, OF COURSE, A RADICAL NEGATIVE
RESPONSE. AND I HOPE THAT THERE WEREN'T,
AND I HOPE THAT THAT WAS COORDINATED BEFORE THIS ATTACK.
SO FAR, THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT STANCE HAS BEEN THAT THERE
WASN'T A CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACK AND THAT THEY'VE DENIED THAT.
AND SO RIGHT NOW THEIR FORMAL POSITION, I THINK, WILL BE TO
DEFEND THEIR ALLY, MR. ASSAD, AND DEFEND THE SOVEREIGNTY OF
THE STATE OF SYRIA. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE'S A
LITTLE "BUT" IN MY HEAD, WHICH IS TO SAY THAT IN 2013, I WAS IN
THE GOVERNMENT. I WAS WITH THE PRESIDENT WHEN HE
MET WITH PRESIDENT PUTIN. WE DID A DEAL WITH THE RUSSIANS
TO ELIMINATE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA, AND AT THAT TIME
PRESIDENT PUTIN WAS THE HERO. LET'S REMEMBER THAT.
HE WAS THE GUY THAT CONVINCED ASSAD TO GET RID OF ALL THESE
WEAPONS, OR SO WE THOUGHT. THIS DOESN'T MAKE HIM LOOK LIKE
A HERO, AND SO I CAN IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE THEY DO NOT
OVERREACT BECAUSE AFTER ALL, THIS HAS BEEN A VERY LIMITED
ATTACK. THIS IS NOT AN ESCALATORY
ATTACK. THIS IS NOT REGIME CHANGE JUST
AS ALL YOUR PREVIOUS GUESTS HAVE SAID.
I COULD FORESEE A RESPONSE THA WAS MUCH MORE MUTED THAN YOU
MIGHT OTHERWISE THINK. BUT BECAUSE PUTIN HIMSELF WAS
INVOLVED IN GETTING RID OF OR AT LEAST TRYING TO GET RID OF THESE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN THE FIRST PLACE.
>> THERE HAS BEEN -- ON THE ISSUE OF WHAT THIS CHEMICAL
WEAPONS ATTACK WAS ON TUESDAY, OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS AN
INTERNATIONAL EFFORT WHERE THERE WAS VERIFIED DISPOSAL OF
THOUSANDS OF TONS OF SYRIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
THEY HAD A HUGE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION STOCKPILE, AND A LOT
OF THAT STUFF WAS GOTTEN RID OF. SINCE THEN, THERE HAVE BEEN A
NUMBER OF ALLEGATIONS OF THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, BUT
ULTIMATELY WHAT IT BOILED DOWN TO IN MOST OF THOSE ALLEGATIONS
IS THAT SOMETHING LIKE CHLORINE OR SOMETHING LIKE MUSTARD WAS
USED, THAT THERE WAS A CHEMICAL ELEMENT TO A CONVENTIONAL ATTACK
BUT THEY WEREN'T, TECHNICALLY SPEAKING WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. WE DO NOT HAVE CONFIRMATION THAT
THIS WAS A SARIN ATTACK. THE TURKISH HEALTH MINISTRY --
AS FAR AS WE UNDERSTAND IT, THAT'S STILL A MATTER OF
INVESTIGATION. IS THERE AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE
THAT BEFORE THERE WAS ANY OFFICIAL DETERMINATION ABOUT THE
USE OF BANNED CHEMICAL WEAPONS, THAT THIS MAY HAVE BEEN A
PREMATURE RESPONSE? >> THAT'S A HARD QUESTION
BECAUSE YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT ABOUT THE FORENSICS OF WHAT WAS
EXACTLY USED. FOR ME, AS SOMEBODY WHO WAS
INVOLVED IN THOSE NEGOTIATIONS BACK IN 2013, I'M WONDERING
ABOUT THE INSPECTIONS REGIMES. WHAT WAS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT WENT
WRONG THAT THIS WAS ALLOWED TO HAPPEN?
AND MOST CERTAINLY IT WAS A RAPID RESPONSE.
YOU KNOW, I WATCHED WHAT THE PRESIDENT SAID YESTERDAY.
IT WAS CLEAR TO ME THAT HE WANTED TO DO SOMETHING, AND HE
DID SOMETHING. YOU KNOW, I HAVE TO SAY FOR ME
PERSONALLY, I SUPPORT THE RESPONSE.
THERE'S JUST BEEN TOO MANY PEOPLE THAT WERE INNOCENTLY
KILLED IN SYRIA FOR ME, WHERE WE DIDN'T DO ENOUGH.
AND AT LEAST TO PUT MR. ASSAD ON NOTICE THAT THERE WILL BE A
RESPONSE, I THINK IS A GOOD THING.
THE THING I WORRY ABOUT, HOWEVER, IS WHAT IF HE DOUBLES
DOWN? HE GETS TO RESPOND TO THIS BY
THE WAY. IT'S NOT LIKE WE GET A VOTE AND
HE DOESN'T GET A VOTE. AND I WORRY ABOUT WHETHER HE
CHALLENGES THE UNITED STATES, HE CHALLENGES THE INTERNATIONAL
REGIME BGIME BY ESCALATING AND S USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAIN.
WHAT WILL THEN BE THE RESPONSE FROM THE UNITED STATES AND THE
WESTERN WORLD? BUT TODAY I THINK IT WAS THE
APPROPRIATE RESPONSE FOR A HORRIBLE TERRORIST ATTACK THAT
PRESIDENT ASSAD DID TO INNOCENT CIVILIANS IN SYRIA.
>> MR. AMBASSADOR, LET ME JUST ASK YOU ONE LAST POINT.
ON THAT MATTER THAT YOU JUST SAID IN TERMS OF ASSAD HAVING A
VOTE AND IT NOT JUST BEING OUR ACTION AND THERE'S NO RESPONSE,
SEVERAL PENTAGON OFFICIALS TOLD A REPORTER NOW AT BUZZFEED, A
VERY EXPERIENCED REPORTER ON NATIONAL SECURITY MATTERS,
SEVERAL PENTAGON OFFICIALS TOLD HER THIS WEEK THAT THE CHEMICAL
WEAPONS -- WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THIS CHEMICAL WEAPONS
ATTACK ON TUESDAY BY ASSAD MAY ITSELF HAVE BEEN AN ACTION THAT
ASSAD TOOK TO TEST THE UNITED STATES AFTER REX TILLERSON, THE
SECRETARY OF STATE, SAID ON THURSDAY THAT IT'S UP TO THE
SYRIAN PEOPLE WHETHER OR NOT ASSAD IS THEIR LEADER, AFTER THE
U.S. APPEARED TO BACK OFF ITS PREVIOUS INSISTENCE THAT ASSAD
MUST GO, THAT THE ATTACK ON TUESDAY ITSELF MAY HAVE BEEN A
TEST OF THE NEW ADMINISTRATION, ESSENTIALLY TO FIND OUT WHERE
THE NEW LINES ARE. FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE INE IN THE
MATTERS, FROM THE WAY THAT YOU'VE SEEN THIS UNFOLD OVER THE
YEARS, DOES THAT SEEM PLAUSIBLE TO YOU?
>> WELL, I'VE HEARD THAT REPORTING AND, I DON'T WANT TO
DOUBT THAT REPORTING. IT DOESN'T SEEM PLAUSIBLE TO ME.
I DON'T THINK IT WOULD BE THAT QUICK OF A CAUSAL CHAIN, RIGHT?
THEY SAID THAT A FEW DAYS AGO, AND THEN THEY DECIDED TO DO
THIS. I CAN TELL YOU THAT THE
SUPPORTERS OF THE ASSAD REGIME, INCLUDING THOSE IN MOSCOW, DID
REACT TO THOSE STATEMENTS FROM TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS.
THAT SEEMED LIKE IT WAS A DEPARTURE IN POLICY, AND AS OF
YESTERDAY, IT WAS A RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM THAT DEPARTURE.
AS YOU, YOURSELF, WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT EARLIER IN THE
PROGRAM. AND NOW THIS IS A RADICAL
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS, MORE DELIBERATIVE RESPONSES BEFORE
TAKING THIS ACTION. AND I THINK IT MAKES EVERYBODY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT WHERE THIS GOES FORWARD.
>> FORMER RUSSIA AMBASSADOR MICHAEL McFAUL, NOW PROFESSOR AT