Let's talk about these markets. Well yeah it is what it is isn't it.
Do you think the bottom and the top are both in on the CSI 300.
For this year probably so I do expect China each year market to continue to be
somewhat range bound trading with a major index.
But there's some potential upside catalysts right.
As you mentioned about the physical policy but also the central bank is also
quite accommodating. What is the most I guess meaningful
catalyst in terms of the Polish policy front for you.
Tommy. Is a combination.
So I think having sufficient liquidity it is important for
the economy and also will help the capital market especially for the
growth. And admit a small CAC if you will.
And we do see them build mutual funds out has been picking up.
So normally the way you see the market pick up in May and June there will be
two or three months of lag which is happening right now.
All of those will help but also on the physical front.
Tommy we're in the thick of earnings season what do you make of it so far.
And do you think given what we have seen do you think these multiples are low
enough and cheap enough. We still on the back of Q2 which is a
longer worse quarter from economic growth and corporate earnings.
Your percentage change perspective but overall sort of China as the economy
grow more than 10 percent growth from front called it and then up to the sort
of revenue generating capability is is reasonable.
So therefore I do see potential upside for the especially as I mentioned the
growth in the small cap in the near term.
Oh we were asking a lot of guess about what
is going to lead this recovery. Then we're seeing range bound.
You're looking for catalysts. Once we do see that catalysts on the
policy front why not. What's really going to take charge is
they're still going to be the tech sector which has been continually
battered or something else from us investors Cesar's perspective.
So we favor Paul Allen both food and beverage which are relatively more
resilient. From a consumer perspective and also the
supply chain especially on the upstream as well as renewable we see the reason
policies are especially end of July upon a bureau the committee meetings.
All of those are really pointed towards you for structure are redeemable.
Those are the sectors we are recommending clients to really position.
Right. And you know we had these earnings not
to get specific companies. I think the earnings are ex pong words
were disappointing. We had a drop in even names
substantially be Y D and France yesterday buying opportunity.
Broadly what we need to look at specific companies.
So I think you know similar to the U.S. I think the first two quarter is good
revision of the discount rate primarily but the bond market and also early
revision. Right.
So after that it would be company specific to see whether they have
pricing power to be able to beat that revised down earnings.
So that would really beat the stock performance.
What's your take on I know you're thinking Asia shares we could be kind of
stuck and these kind of ranges for some time.
What about for eight shares. Is that something that you know
continues to see more headwinds given the Fed picture and how hawkish we might
be hearing from policymakers there. Or do you think it is time to buy Hong
Kong. It certainly is.
Maybe a good entry point. Well Hong Kong is a little bit more
complex. It is more linked to the to the rest of
the world. So so we do see the it would take a
bigger sort of book factor into the market.
So therefore we see the past four six weeks the liquidity tax write off which
really activate the volatility. But overall we think with China
potentially Mickey we haven't seen that but we potentially see that pivot
towards more relaxing under cold. It will also help Hong Kong market.
If you look at South Spong there's continued new flows from China into Hong
Kong. Tommy final question.
What do you make of these pricing in India and the property sector whether
that's equities or credit. Anything DAX.
We did this it's been well analyzed Rose
and we continue to have the view to be very cautious both on the fixed income
and equity side. What a private listed companies.
Given the hard way I think I think the government's focus is really protecting
the overall economy to do not have that the over impact on the bond and equity
holders. So the caution will remain.
But overall I think that I came back from the US and Singapore.
You must have students definitely agree. You know China property sector are too
big to ignore. So we are watching how the sector would
develop.