Rumors are circulating that Russia is planning another mobilization in the spring, and it
will likely rely heavily on conscription as Vladimir Putin continues his quest to conquer
Ukraine.
So middle-class Russian citizens of fighting age could find themselves facing the battlefield
with only a few weeks of training.
At least they’ll be armed with the latest and best gear…right?
Guess again.
When the war began, most pundits looked on in horror but predicted Kyiv would fall within
days or weeks.
After all, Russia was a Great Power with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, and had
been chopping off pieces of Ukraine like Crimea for years with minimal opposition.
Ukraine also had an untested military and wasn’t a member of NATO or the EU yet.
But as the first days of the war passed, Ukrainian defenders put up a strong enough initial fight
that aiding in its defense began looking like both a moral imperative and a good investment
to NATO.
This is when the war turned into a drawn-out battle between Russia and a NATO-backed Ukraine
that has kept Russia confined to only the eastern part of Ukraine it conquered at the
start of the war.
And that’s put Russia in a tight spot.
Russia’s military plans were geared towards a quick, brutal war and an extended occupation,
which the world would be powerless to oppose.
But instead, they felt the full brunt of international condemnation - and not only did Ukraine get
massive investments from the world, but most powerful countries outside of China, North
Korea, and Iran sanctioned Russia and cut them off from a large part of the world economy.
And so Russia saw itself isolated, as its cold-war stockpile of weapons and supplies
started running out - with little in the way of options for replenishing them.
And rumors started spreading quickly that things were going downhill.
As early as May, reports were going around that the Russian standard body armor was not
up to snuff.
The Security Service of Ukraine leaked conversations between a Russian soldier and his mother where
the soldier asked his mother for money to buy better protective armor.
While Russia had provided its soldiers armor during this stage of the war, most Russian
gear is from the Cold War, and the odds are that its quality has degraded over the decades.
Russia has been tight-lipped since the war about the casualties they’ve suffered, and
they’ve denied reports that they’re running out of supplies - claiming the leaked conversations
are Ukrainian propaganda.
But the evidence is piling up.
As the war dragged on, photos were leaked of Russian soldiers who had been killed in
combat - and few if any seemed to be wearing heavy-duty body armor.
As early as March, military experts predicted that Russia would start to run out of key
supplies - but it didn’t deter Putin from pushing on with the war.
And then came October, and the first mobilization - which included a mass conscription of soldiers,
including many from ethnic minority enclaves who felt they were being disproportionately
targeted for service.
It wasn’t long before the initiative was perceived as a disaster, with people protesting
against conscription while their family and friends were being sent to the front unprepared
for combat.
And the supply problems soon became very clear.
The trickle of complaints about poor armor and other supplies soon turned into a flood,
as phone calls from mobilized soldiers revealed they were being given civilian clothing, rusted
guns, and little in the way of supplies like first-aid kits.
Many were being forced to resort to buying their own armor and gear, looting it from
Ukrainian villages, or stealing it - sometimes from their fellow soldiers.
What equipment they did have was often in poor condition, forcing the conscripts to
DIY most of the fixes needed for their guns and uniforms.
Even recruitment offices knew there was a problem, as many soldiers were told to bring
their own gear prior to reporting for duty.
And the good gear didn’t come cheap.
Many families reported spending a month’s salary on the gear a draftee would need to
go into combat - with most families knowing there was a good chance the gear and the man
wearing it would never come back.
As more and more men were drafted, many stores experienced shortages of supplies and gear
- a military version of the great toilet paper wars of 2020.
And sure enough, some people took advantage, as there were reports of price gouging.
Some key items, like bulletproof vests, saw prices rise exponentially, and other gear
like sleeping bags and winter boots went out of stock quickly.
But in some cases, getting nothing may be the better alternative.
Many Russian soldiers are reporting that they are getting body armor - but it’s fake!
One video that went viral had a soldier showing off his shiny new vest - only to reveal that
it was an airsoft gun vest, designed for playing games of paintball.
It would shred in an instant if confronted with actual heavy fire, as he described in
colorful language.
He was also apparently given Airsoft gun scopes - so Putin might be making up for the supply
shortage by raiding the local arcade.
But in some cases, the armor may actively be dangerous to the soldiers.
Russia has been boasting that it has top-of-the-line body armor - the Ratnik-2, and it has been
stockpiling them since 2017.
In fact, by 2020, Russia claimed it had enough to supply the entire army.
This modern body armor is ideal for protection against both low-velocity bullets and shrapnel,
and also features ceramic plate inserts that can protect vital organs from high-velocity
bullets.
If Russian soldiers were wearing this, it would make the job of Ukrainian snipers much
harder.
So what’s protecting the average Russian soldier?
Most soldiers are currently being seen wearing older 6B23 body armor that was replaced by
the Ratnik model, and it has one big problem - it’s not very good at protecting its user.
Soldiers who are hit by bullets while wearing it often sustain blunt-force trauma - causing
painful bruises and even broken ribs.
Which kind of defeats the purpose of body armor.
Yet other soldiers are inspecting their armor - and finding previous bullet holes in it,
indicating it was previously used and didn’t exactly get the job done.
Which makes many people wonder, where is this revolutionary Russian body armor?
Russia is notoriously corrupt, and many people higher up in the military seem to only be
in it for themselves.
There were multiple scandals in the years up to the war where military officials were
convicted of selling supplies online, with the black market only heating up when the
war kicked off.
So maybe some soldiers did wind up with the armor they needed - but only because they
or their family were willing to pay for it.
And combining the stolen body armor with the ones that were destroyed in the early days
of the war, Russia found itself unnable to supply its troops with adequate body armor.
And that led to an elaborate game of deception.
Why does Putin care about pretending that soldiers are wearing body armor - up to and
including giving them fake armor designed for airsoft?
Part of it is his international reputation - not like he has much left to begin with,
but he would rather be feared than liked.
While Russia is isolated by international sanctions, the governments of NATO and beyond
have been hesitant to push him too far.
That includes not giving Ukraine any long-range offensive weapons that could target Russia
itself.
The weaker Russia looks and the more bare-bones its army seems to be, the less hesitant governments
will be to defy Russia’s government.
But appearances also matter when trying to impress the few allies you have.
Putin’s choices of suppliers is limited.
Many of the small countries he has in his corner, including fellow dictatorships Belarus,
Syria, and Venezuela, don’t have much in the way of resources to offer.
China, while by far the most resource-rich country in Putin’s corner, has been inching
away from full support of the war in recent months - and will only become more hesitant
if it looks like Russia is losing.
And while Iran and North Korea are very eager to help Russia against the US-backed forces
in Ukraine, they’re not going to throw money into what they think is a losing fight.
So Russia is determined to present itself as a strong nation - but a bigger problem
might come from within.
Currently, the winter months mean both Russia and Ukraine’s armies have been frozen in
place, fighting over small swaths of land in Eastern Ukraine.
Most of these areas were taken by Russia in the first days of the war, then many were
reclaimed by Ukraine during their stunning autumn offensive in 2022.
Now, small towns like Soledar have become fierce battlegrounds - but Putin is far from
willing to settle for what he has.
Rumors are that he’s planning a massive mobilization for spring, with the hopes of
making one last push to take Kyiv.
And to do that, he needs the public on board.
In recent months, Putin has tried putting on a friendlier face to the people of Russia,
meeting with war widows and mothers of fallen soldiers and sharing his grief over their
losses.
But now he’s going to ask countless more soldiers to face that same fate - and the
resistance is likely to be fierce.
Putin isn’t generally vulnerable to public opinion- often putting down anti-war rallies
with brutal force.
But this might be different.
If the Russian people feel they’re being used as cannon fodder in a doomed war, then
the public could fully turn against the war - and no war could be prosecuted with the
public staunchly opposed to it.
And if the soldiers themselves oppose it, all bets are off.
Desertions and draft dodging has become more common in the last few year, with some soldiers
preferring to be taken captive by the Ukrainians rather than fight to their deaths.
Being sent into combat without an armor vest would likely only intensify that feeling - which
is why Russia might be hoping that the soldiers who put on their fake body armor don’t look
too closely, and charge into combat for Mother Russia.
After all, the soldiers will eventually find out that their body armor is fake - but it’ll
likely be too late for them to do anything about it.
In the end, Russia was simply not prepared for a war of this scale.
In the months leading up to the war, top military analysts and businessmen in Russia advised
Putin on his next moves, planning the tactics for a limited military engagement.
Unsuprisngly they were all shocked when he invaded the country in full force.
Russia burned through its stockpiles, was cut off from supplies from the rest of the
world, and is currently feeling the squeeze.
The government is trying to crack down on hoarding and price gouging, ordering anti-monopoly
agencies to keep an eye on military supplies.
But at the end of the day, it’s up to the soldiers to gear themselves up so they don’t
die.
While the average Russian might be a bit more ambivalent about the war than they were at
the start, the idea of soldiers in harm’s way is a universal human motivator - and Russian
citizens are pitching in to buy body armor and winter clothing.
Families often hold fundraisers, hoping to give their boys a fighting chance of coming
home alive.
But while in the past, Putin’s gambit to hide the lack of body armor might have worked,
today the internet allows word to travel around the world in minutes.
Which means that Russian soldiers will likely be looking at every piece of gear a lot more
closely.
Want to know more about the state of the war?
Check out “Deadly Weapons That US is Sending to Ukraine” or “Why Poland is Preparing
for Full-Scale War Against Russia” for all the latest details.