With Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer all pulingl out of supplying Russian airlines with planes
and parts, all three are staring down the barrel of a potentially empty orderbook in
the country.
While the length of time Russia will be under sanctions remains unknown, history has shown
what the impact of such moves could be.
Let’s take a closer look at the full, longer-term ramifications of sanctions against Russia
from an aviation perspective…
Lets’s take Iran as a case study.
The nation has been under sanctions on and off since 1995, preventing manufacturers from
providing new planes or parts for existing aircraft to any operators in the country.
As such, Iran’s aviation industry has been limping along with a motley collection of
old and unusual aircraft – an avgeek’s dream, but not the best for airline efficiency
or operational reliability.
When the sanctions were lifted in 2015, Iranian airlines signed a flurry of orders to renew
their aging fleets.
By 2016, deals had been signed relating to 100 Airbus jets, 80 Boeing aircraft, and 40
ATR turboprops.
Unfortunately for these customers, only 11 aircraft were delivered before 2018 - when
sanctions were reapplied as the US withdrew from the nuclear deal.
Although the situation with Russia is very different from Iran’s, there are some parallel
similarities.
Both Airbus and Boeing have a significant number of orders in place with Russian airlines,
and both could be forced to find alternative customers for their planes if the sanctions
last for an extended period.
So what kind of exposure are we looking at for these planemakers?
To answer this, let’s look at data from ch-aviation.com.
It should be noted that this does not account for aircraft ordered by lessors for delivery
to Russian airlines, only those placed directly.
Data shows that Boeing has outstanding direct orders for 42 aircraft sitting with Russian
airlines right now.
These include six 777-200Fs for AirBridgeCargo, and 36 737 MAX 8s destined for UTair, Ural
Airlines, and S7 Airlines.
AirBridgeCargo (ABC) is an offshoot of outsized cargo specialist Volga-Dnepr.
The main branch of the cargo airline uses Antonov and Ilyushin aircraft for its operations,
but ABC flies Boeings.
The Group expressed an interest in the 777 platform back in 2018.
In 2019, it firmed up an order for nine 777-200F.
The first of these was delivered to ABC in August 2020.
While some parts of that order have since been subject to sale and leaseback transactions,
six aircraft remain outstanding.
According to ch-aviation, these are not planned for delivery until 2024 – 2025.
It’s possible that the situation will have eased before these delivery windows roll around
but of course, it’s difficult to know at the moment.
More of a problem for Boeing are the many 737 MAXs headed to Russia.
The biggest headache will be UTair, an airline with 28 737 MAX jets on order.
The carrier originally placed an order for 30 of the new narrowbodies back in 2018, six
of which were due to be delivered in 2020.
These were critical to its future fleet for the airline, as it was replacing aging 737
Classics, including its 26 737-500s.
To date, UTair has not taken delivery of a single 737 MAX, largely due to the prolonged
grounding.
It even had to lease some 737 NG capacity to stay on its planned expansion course while
waiting for the MAXs to arrive.
Data suggests that the first MAXs were due to arrive in March 2023, delivering regularly
through to December 2027, when all 28 would be handed over.
In terms of imminent deliveries, both S7 and Ural Airlines were expecting 737 MAX arrivals
pretty soon.
Ural Airlines only has two on order from Boeing, both of which were earmarked to arrive in
March 2022.
At least two have been spotted on flight testing around Boeing Field in recent weeks.
S7 Airlines was the first to fly the MAX in Russia, taking delivery of its first in October
2018.
It has taken delivery of another one since, and, according to data, has six more due to
arrive.
While not all have had estimated delivery dates applied, at least two were expected
to be delivered before the summer.
Again, these almost-completed aircraft have been spotted around Renton in recent weeks.
Airbus has a smaller but no less significant exposure in Russia.
It has a total of 22 aircraft listed by ch-aviation as being destined for Russian airlines, a
large portion of which is its flagship widebody, the A350.
Airbus’ biggest Russian customer is Aeroflot, which has 13 A350-900s on order.
It has already taken delivery of nine, the latest of which was delivered to Moscow on
February 24th.
While there are no delivery dates listed for the outstanding aircraft, AIBFamilyFlights
notes MSN 471 has been undergoing flight testing ahead of its planned delivery.
On the narrowbody side, the popular A320neo family has some outstanding Russian orders.
S7 Airlines appears here again, with deals for four planes – three A321LRs and one
A320neo.
No delivery date has been indicated for these.
The other narrowbody customer is smartavia, which is expecting three A320neos.
These should have been delivered in the early part of this year.
One was delivered in February, joining the three that were already in the smartavia fleet.
Two are noted to have been well on the way to delivery date, with MSN 10791 taking its
first flight on March 1st, and MSN 10786 on February 18th.
Again, ch-aviation data does not show orders that have not been firmed-up, nor those placed
through lessors.
According to reporting at IFN News, the Lufthansa Group could be waiting in the wings to take
over some of these undelivered aircraft.
At a press conference earlier this month, the group CEO Carsten Spohr confirmed that
the group is in talks with aircraft manufacturers regarding additional deliveries.
Of particular interest to the Lufthansa Group are the Airbus A350s, initially destined for
Aeroflot.
Alongside this, Lufthansa Cargo is reported to be interested in additional 777 freighters,
potentially signaling a desire to take on the aircraft destined for Volga-Dnepr.
Although we started this video by drawing parallels between Russia and Iran, there’s
one crucial factor that differentiates these nations and their aviation industries.
Russia makes its own planes and has done so for years; Iran, although it regularly eyes
production of commercial aircraft, has yet to produce anything viable.
As such, Russian airlines have an option on the table that was not available for Iranian
airlines, and that’s to simply fly Russian planes.
Outstanding orders are in place for hundreds of SSJ 100s from carriers, including Rossiya,
Red Wings, Azimuth, and more.
Then, there are hundreds of MC-21s also on order, including for Aeroflot, IrAero, Red
Wings, and others.
Also in the mix are 19 Ilyushin Il-114-300s from Aurora.
But there are a few problems with this.
Let’s start with the big one – all but one of these aircraft are not completed or
ready to be delivered yet.
The Il-114-300 is a resurrected version of a three-decade-old turboprop that never sold
well in the first place.
Russia’s United Aircraft wanted to modernize and revive the design, pitting it against
the competitors in this space from DHC and ATR.
Originally, the idea was to move part of the Dash 8-400s production to Russia to supply
Russian airlines with the plane.
However, after talks ended following the annexation of Crimea, Russia took matters into its own
hands.
Last year, United Aircraft began flight testing the first prototype of the Il-114-300.
It said that it was hoping for certification in 2022, but that’s now looking increasingly
unlikely.
Even if it does begin delivering before the end of the year, the output of the serial
production plant is only planned to be around 12 aircraft per year.
The MC-21, again, is not certified yet.
It has been undergoing a rigorous testing process, most recently undertaking cold soak
testing in Yakutsk.
Things are moving forward on certification, but it’s a slow process.
Russia has previously said it would aim for 20 aircraft per year, but more recently updated
this to an annual rate of 36.
The second big problem is that only one of these aircraft would go any distance towards
filling the hole in the order book from the loss of Boeing and Airbus.
Both the SSJ and the Il-114 are very much regional flyers, with only the MC-21 being
capable of big trans-Russia routings.
All in, 45 narrowbody jets are going to be missing from Russian fleets.
Even if everything goes precisely to plan for United Aircraft, it will be some time
before it gets production up to 36 planes a year.
That means these airlines could be waiting many years for a Russian alternative.
On the widebody side, there is no alternative, so Aeroflot will be forced to fly what it
has right now for the time being.
Ultimately, however, the lost widebodies probably won’t be needed for a while.
Russia is increasingly being cut off from the rest of the world, with nations all over
the globe slamming their doors on the country’s airlines.
Although some international connections remain, places for Russian airlines to fly long-haul
are becoming fewer by the day.
Russia itself has a robust domestic aviation scene, as was witnessed during the worst of
COVID.
As the rest of the world stayed home and stopped traveling, Russian airlines were flying as
much, if not more, than they did pre-COVID.
Indeed, by mid-2020, Aeroflot boasted a complete recovery of domestic traffic, exceeding pre-covid
levels in some markets.
Although Russians love traveling internationally, the reduction of options saw passengers heading
for staycations in their droves.
Russia boasts some impressive homegrown resorts, including Sochi and Anapa on the Black Sea.
Nevertheless, the elephant in the room for all Russian airlines is the lack of ongoing
support from their plane manufacturers.
Although around one-third of Russia’s commercial fleet is homegrown, most are small airplanes,
not designed to go long distances.
The two-thirds that Airbus, Embraer, and Boeing provide remains critical to all of Russia’s
airlines.
Once these planes hit their next service interval, or experience an unexpected maintenance issue,
airlines are in trouble.
While there may be a small stockpile of spare parts right now, that reserve won’t last
long.
When this stockpile is exhausted, Russian airlines will have to turn to cannibalization
of their fleets in order to keep at least some airplanes flying.
It’s tough times for Russian aviation, but far tougher for those who are suffering at
the hands of Putin’s war machine.
For everyone involved, a swift resolution is the best possible outcome right now.
What do you think about the situation in Russia and the future for the country’s airlines?
Let us know in the comments.