Danielle, I go to this child and I talked about five year years at the top
of the show, two year yields is the other front.
Well, we saw quite a bit of repricing up 25 basis points to four point three one
five percent. How much more adjustment is going to
take place in this asset class? Well, when I look at this.
No. Initially I thought that, you know, it's
going to be a glass half empty kind of scenario.
Right. The Fed needs to do much more in order
to bring the numbers down. But if you look deeper into this, OK,
the job growth blew out. But then the wage growth was pretty much
flat. Rate is up 30 pips month a month.
And the pride month was up for the pips month for month.
So you're having a scenario where the job growth is actually decoupling from
the wage growth. And that kind of echoes what we're
hearing at the FOMC press conference where Powell is increasingly open about
the fact that the Fed may be able to bring down inflation to its target, but
without a crash in the job markets. So if anything, you know, if you look at
this from a glass half full angle that, you know, we may have a correction in
the growth numbers, but we may not get as bad the recession as we thought it
would be. Right.
So. I mean, it was natural for the idea that
you spend you spend a lot of your time debating the opportunities within the
equities world. I've got a risk free rate that US 2s
that are giving me north of 4.5 percent. Where do you tell clients to go in like
what you're seeing in earnings? Well, what you hear from the Fed.
Well, look at, you know, what we've seen in the earnings and what we're seeing
right now. It seems that the S&P index may have a
little bit more room to go at this moment in time, at least for the short
term. Right.
So it Brooke, about forty one hundred. And we saw some pullback on Friday, of
course. But it is very natural for that to
retest new support at forty one hundred and perhaps go higher.
We're looking at a run forty three hundred and twenty five as the next
resistance. And if you look at some of the growth
names, they're actually looking better. NASDAQ is actually looking better in the
Dow right now. NASDAQ perhaps has a little bit more
room to go. So, you know, this could bode well for
U.S. equities in the very short term.
How do you balance exposure to China equities?
I mean, of course, much closer to home for you in light of the geopolitical
tensions over the weekend. Is there a stronger case or a reduced
case for exposure to China stocks? OK.
This year is very rich right now. These few trading days, there's a lot of
things that are that are happening. So in terms of what we're seeing in Hong
Kong, China equities, if you look at the Hang Seng index before Chinese New Year,
it has been going higher, but the hit resistance at twenty two thousand seven
hundred with very little volume. OK.
So the power to drive that index higher has already been weakening even before
this saga about the balloon. OK.
After Chinese, you when you come back, you're seeing some quite, quite a bit of
selling pressure in the Hong Kong China equities and bearish price action
opening highs and, you know, closing the lows for a few days.
And today that, Brooke, below the twenty one thousand three hundred eighty
support. So what is happening is that the money
has been flowing back to the US. Right.
Earnings season was not as bad as what people thought, OK?
And of course, the Fed was ready to be dovish, et cetera, et cetera.
And the economy doesn't seem to be going into a hot recession.
Right. So all these means that the U.S.
has more room to go. Hong Kong, China, probably you would see
the Hang Seng index going back to 20000 level.