(siren wails)
- [Reporter] Since February 24th, 2022,
when Russian President Vladimir Putin
announced a special military operation,
the West has walked a fine line in Ukraine.
(soft tense music)
(mother cries)
While it works to help Ukraine
push back the Russian invasion,
(rockets hiss)
Western countries are also carefully calculating their aid
to avoid getting pulled into a direct conflict
with a nuclear armed adversary.
The "Wall Street Journal" examined Western military aid
over the first year of the Russia Ukraine War
to see what's next.
(soft tense music ends)
The war over the last year can be broken into three phases.
- Initially, the Ukrainians were looking
for almost anything.
I mean, one thing they requested early on,
which didn't happen, was that the US
and NATO impose a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace.
- [Reporter] That was a red line
the West didn't want to cross and still hasn't
- [Protesters] Close the sky, close the sky, close the sky.
- [Reporter] But they were providing other gear.
- I'd say the first phase with the sort of insurgency phase
and the anti-tank weapons, you know, small arms
and essentially meant for,
you know, what would likely to be partisan warfare.
- [Reporter] A few days after the invasion,
Germany announced it would send Ukraine anti-tank weapons
and Stinger missiles, a stark difference
from its previous legislation banning the delivery of arms
to conflict regions.
And in March, Germany also added
2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to that list.
By the end of the month,
officials of the Ukrainian army were touting wins.
Russian forces began pulling back from Kyiv and Chernihiv.
By Wednesday, April 6th, that withdrawal was complete.
(soft music)
But with a renewed Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine,
the US had announced another $800 million package of aid.
In that package were M777 Howitzers...
- [Officer] Fire!
(ammunition fires)
- [Reporter] Artillery pieces
that can provide long-range fire support from the rear.
(artillery rumbles)
And as fighting shifted to an attempted all-out assault
by Russian forces in the Donbas area,
Ukrainian officials stressed the urgent need
for even more sophisticated long-range weaponry.
The US responded, this time with advanced rocket systems
like these that transitioned the war into a new phase.
(rockets roar)
Ukraine also began securing
this kind of high mobility artillery rocket systems,
known as HIMARS, and multiple launch rocket systems
similar to these, or MLRs.
(rockets hiss)
As the war passed 100 days,
Russian forces were consolidating their position
toward the south and east of the country,
looking to expand their control
to strategic cities like this one.
The arrival of these HIMARS
helped strengthen Kyiv's hand in these areas,
but these types of new weapons came with a clear red line.
- Attacking occupied territory is one thing,
but we don't want you using our artillery systems
to attack targets in Russia.
And that's one reason why the US has been reluctant,
in fact, hasn't delivered longer range artillery
or longer range ammunition that could be used
in the HIMARS because it doesn't want the Ukrainians
to be attacking Russia.
- [Reporter] To ensure this line and reduce the risk
of a wider war with Moscow, the US secretly modified
the advanced HIMAR rocket launchers it gave Ukraine.
The Pentagon declined to comment on the modifications,
which US officials said involved
their hardware and software.
By the sixth month of war in Ukraine,
momentum tilted against Russia's favor,
shown clearly with this drone strike
on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea.
Still, the US announced another nearly $3 billion
for Ukraine's defense,
the biggest US weapons assistance package thus far.
Ukraine made advances throughout the fall,
first in Kharkiv, then in Kherson.
Russian forces pulled back from Kharkiv in September.
Ukraine said it had retaken
about 3,500 square miles of territory
from Moscow forces in the region.
This marks the biggest setback for Russia
since it invaded Ukraine in February, and in November,
Russia ordered the withdrawal of its troops from Kherson,
the only regional Ukrainian capital it held.
(protesters singing)
As winter set with cold weather and shorter days,
both sides slowed down their war efforts.
But in 2023, a renewed push for military aid ramped up.
Tanks like these kicked off the most recent phase
of military aid and marked a departure
from previous policies.
- Early on in the war,
the thought of sending Western battle tanks
would be sort of regarded as really being a very risky step
and a step too far.
Now, of course, they're about to go into the theater.
- [Reporter] It began with the UK agreeing first
to send Western battle tanks to Ukraine
followed by the US providing Abrams tanks like these
and Germany outlining plans
to send Leopard tanks like these ones.
- The Russians have massed large numbers of forces
and pushed them into Ukraine, leading Western
and Ukrainian analysts to expect a further Russian offensive
because the Russians seem to be playing for time.
You know, it seems like they want a long war.
They're waiting for something to turn up in their favor.
- [Reporter] While the tanks will increase
the Ukrainians' combat power,
that equipment is some ways off.
And further constraints on Western aid
loom as the war carries on.
- Western supplies are not limitless.
The ability of Western industry
to kind of produce more equipment
for their own armies to replace the equipment
that's been sent to Ukraine and also more
for the Ukrainians themselves, it isn't limitless.
- [Reporter] The US has committed around $47 billion
in military aid to Ukraine, the most of any country,
followed by the EU and the United Kingdom.
The extent to which this aid can continue
at the rate it has been doing recently
is unknown at this point and in a lengthy war.
Some Western backers of Ukraine
worry that time may be on Russia's side.
- I mean, it looks likely now
that this is gonna be a long war.
The Russians are gonna end up as sort of,
you know, suffering long-term damage.
Their military has been absolutely decimated.
And the Ukrainians, of course, have lost so much.
So neither side looks like
it's gonna come out of this war ahead.
(soft music)