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A lot of us rely on a morning cup of coffee,
or several morning cups of coffee, to get us going.
But the taste and the quality of that coffee might not stay the same forever.
Climate change has the potential to not only shift
where and how we grow coffee in the future, but affect whether it can be grown at all.
Whether you’re a coffee aficionado who obsesses over acidity, aroma, and brew method,
or you hastily chug some corner-store instant blend on the go,
climate change means bad news for your beans. There are lots of different blends and styles of
coffee, but we usually just drink two types. The most famous is Coffea arabica.
The other is its less celebrated cousin Coffea canephora, also known as Robusta.
Most of us sip Arabica for our daily cup of Joe. But if you get your fix from instant coffee,
it’s probably Robusta, which is not considered quite as tasty.
The Arabica coffee plant is pretty particular. It grows best in wet and cool mountain regions.
Unfortunately for Arabica, and for us, climate change
is bringing a slew of problems to those higher-altitude coffee-growing areas.
That’s especially true in places where Arabica coffee grows wild,
In the humid, shady mountain forests of Ethiopia and South Sudan.
The genetic diversity found in these wild plants might hold the key
to making coffee more resilient to climate and disease in the future.
But climate change is increasing temperatures and shortening wet seasons in these areas.
That makes the outlook not so good for wild coffee forests.
By 2088, we could see a 50-80% drop in Arabica populations,
which could be enough to land them on the endangered list.
Combine that with deforestation, and this special species of bean
could be at greater risk of extinction. While Robusta is definitely more,
well, robust when it comes to environmental changes,
climate change is shrinking its available growing range too.
And as temperatures rise, both species are being hit harder by pests,
like the coffee berry borer. This species of bark beetle is
a serious enemy of coffee plants. It used to attack only plants growing
below certain elevations. That minimized its impact,
since coffee is grown at high altitudes. But with hotter weather, this beetle is
expanding its range into higher ground, and appearing in coffee plantations.
Warmer weather is also encouraging a number of fungus species
to move into Arabica and Robusta territory. One of the most notorious is coffee rust,
which turns the leaves a rusty orange. When coffee rust arrived in
Sri Lanka in the 19th century, it wiped out the entire industry in ten years.
Coffee rust also followed the coffee industry to Central and South America,
where higher heat and humidity due to climate change made plantations vulnerable to infections.
In a short time, the fungus caused billions of dollars in damage and lost profits.
And because climate change is shrinking coffee-growing habitat,
there are fewer places left for coffee growers to flee this fungus, and other diseases.
Even if we can keep farming Arabica in the future, lower quality growing environments
might negatively impact flavor, literally leaving a bitter taste in your mouth.
The amount of shade and differences in microclimates
change the look, smell and taste of coffee beans. The best specialty coffee comes from natural,
shady coffee-producing forests, since Arabica grown under high sun
exposure takes a hit in terms of bean quality. Also, in healthy coffee-producing forests,
higher diversity in insect and orchid species appears to play a role in coffee quality.
In fact, coffee connoisseurs can differentiate between coffees
grown in different elevations and conditions, sort of like how some sommeliers can
taste variations in wine. And the bad news for beans
isn’t just a downer for coffee snobs. Climate change is expected to make a dent
all across this multi-billion-dollar sector, and on the hundred million coffee farmers
around the world. But there is some hope!
Researchers are looking into other coffee species that might be more resilient
than Arabica and Robusta. In fact, there are 124 known wild
coffee species growing across the world, from tropical Africa to Australasia.
And many are already used locally to make a morning cup of Joe.
One especially promising species is Coffea stenophylla.
This bean tastes similar to Arabica – and it can be grown at higher temperatures!
Stenophylla and a number of other wild species have important characteristics related to heat,
drought, pest and disease tolerance. Unfortunately, 60% of all wild coffee
species could also be at risk of extinction. That’s mainly because we’re destroying the
forests where they are found, to make room for agriculture,
livestock farming, and new settlements. In addition, some wild species are
found in high-conflict regions, which presents additional challenges.
So, even though many of us take for granted that coffee is a reliable part of our day,
it may not be in the future. As if we needed another reason
to get serious about climate change. Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow,
and thanks as always to our patrons for helping us make it happen.
We cannot buy you a coffee to say thanks, but we do have some neat perks available,
like our new behind-the-scenes podcast. If you’re interested, you can get started
at patreon.com/scishow.
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