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Located in one of the driest, most arid and most politically hostile places in the world,
over the past three decades Israel has been one of the greatest success stories on the planet while
shattering its neighbors' brands. For example, in per capita terms,
Israel's economy is 14 times larger than Egypt's, 8 times larger than Iran's and almost twice that
of Saudi Arabia. And
that's not all. If we measure economic output in per capita terms, it already exceeds that
of countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan.
VisualPolitik fans, in a land as arid as it is hostile, the Israelis have been able to
set up an efficient, productive and very, very advanced industrial economy. Perhaps the most
technologically advanced of all. For example, as a percentage of GDP,
this is the country that invests the most in research and development in the world.
According to World Bank data, we are talking about almost 5% of the entire national economy.
In this way, and with the help of large multinationals and an endless swarm of start-ups,
Israel has become one of the great technological leaders in the world.
Something that, for example, has allowed it to accumulate more than $180
billion dollars in international reserves. So far in the 21st century, the Ta-35,
Tel Aviv's most important index, has even outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 50 points.
Ok, so far we’ve been talking about the economy; but, do you know what? The truth is that in
other areas the situation is not so different. Israel is a solid democracy, a nuclear power,
militarily it is light years ahead of any threat and, to top it all,
following the Abraham agreements, the country has
normalised its diplomatic relations with practically all the major Arab powers.
(Israel and UAE work towards instituting a free-trade agreement. JNS)
Obviously, as in any other place, there are also problems, but in general I think that if
we had to choose a term that could summarise the evolution that the Hebrew country has undergone
over the last 20, 30 years, there could be no better term than the word success:
Economic success, diplomatic success and military success.
However, VisualPolitik fans, don't launch the fireworks just yet;
because despite all this enormous success, Israel has been unable to solve
or even advance a solution to its biggest political and social problem: Palestine.
Let's see, I don't think it will surprise anyone if I say that things have been going
badly there for almost an eternity. Faced with Israel's success,
there are almost 5 million Palestinians living in a completely different situation.
Yes, in many cases, it is the fault of the Palestinian authorities themselves,
but let's not fool ourselves, in other cases it is also because the Hebrew government
seems less and less interested in ending the military occupation.
In any case, the solution seems more out of reach than ever.
Something that has made us on VisualPolitik ask ourselves a few questions:
Why aren't things moving forward? What on earth is going on with the much talked
about creation of the two states? How could they get on track in a manner that would
put all parties on a course towards a permanent solution once and for all?
In this video we're going to look to answer all these questions, and first, before everything,
look at what the hell went wrong. Listen up.
(THE FAILED PATH OF THE TWO STATES) In 1993, the Israeli government, then headed by
Yitzhak Rabin, and the PLO, the Palestinian Liberation Organization, led by Yasser Arafat,
signed the so-called Oslo Accords. It was apparently a turning point in
the conflict. The PLO recognised Israel as a legitimate State and both sides committed
themselves to the construction of two States, as the United Nations had already proposed in 1947.
This would put an end, once and for all, to Israel's occupation, and the two States would
be able to go their own independent ways. At that moment the future seemed completely clear.
In order to achieve the two-State solution, a maximum period of five years was set to
negotiate all the details, and the West Bank was divided into 3 levels:
zone A, zone B and zone C. Using this categorization system,
the Israelis would withdraw in phases, so that by 1998 at the latest,
apart for the remaining settlements, full responsibility for the territory of the
West Bank should have been transferred to the Palestinian National Authority.
However, things evolved in a radically different way.
Almost 30 years have passed since the Oslo Accords and everything has
remained more or less the same... - Well, no, that's not entirely
accurate... The truth is that things have become much, much more complicated.
Look, for example, at the so-called Area C,
which covers more than 60% of the entire West Bank. Today, the Israeli government
maintains full control over the security and administration of this territory.
And not only that, the Palestinians basically cannot carry out any activity in this area,
which, as we have already said, represents most of the West Bank: they cannot manage it,
they cannot register land, they cannot exploit its natural resources and they
cannot build unless they receive a special permit from the occupying authorities.
A permit that, in practice, is almost impossible to obtain.
(Just 3% of Palestinian building permits in Area C
are approved by Israel. Middle East Monitor) This means that of the 1,485 construction
applications that were submitted by Palestinians, only 21 – 21 out of 1,485! – were approved by the
Israeli Civil Administration in the West Bank. A body that under the Oslo Accords should not
even exist and that also imposes a lot of restrictions that make it much more
difficult to create thriving businesses or companies in all zones: A, B and C.
In the meantime, of course, Israel does and undoes as it pleases.
For example, it builds military installations, expropriates land to
build roads and infrastructure for the exclusive use of Israelis and it expands settlements.
In fact, regarding the issue of the settlements,
there is a lot to be unpacked. You see, Israel began building
settlements shortly after occupying Gaza and the West Bank following the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
However, following the Oslo Accords things have got out of control and the settlements
have sprung up like mushrooms – that is, exactly the opposite of what was agreed.
In fact, while in 1993 there were about 110,000 settlers in the West Bank,
since then this figure has increased almost fourfold.
And what is even more striking: they just keep growing. Encouraged and subsidized, of course,
by the Israeli government itself and by the attraction of much, much cheaper housing.
(New roads pave way for massive growth of Israeli settlements. AP)
The fact is that, as we have already mentioned on one occasion or another,
all these settlements have left Palestine with more holes than a Swiss cheese.
It is splintered and subjected to all kinds of controls,
limitations, restrictions and barriers that practically prevent any economic development.
Even Palestinian vehicles cannot cross into Israel.
And obviously the 9-meter walls that surround many areas of the West Bank
and the endless security checkpoints along the so-called green line do not facilitate either
foreign investment or business growth. Take for example the case of Azzun Atmeh,
a Palestinian village in the middle of the West Bank that is surrounded by Israeli settlements
and the imposing walls and fences of separation. Getting around from here is not easy at all.
Of course, not all the responsibility lies with Israel. The Palestinians need to take their share
of the blame, too: radical groups, political factional warfare, lack of civil liberties,
and their inability to make a democratic model work. For example, Palestinians have not gone
to the polls since 2006 even though the model of government is supposed to require voting.
Not to mention the radical regime of the Hamas political-terrorist group in the Gaza Strip.
Be that as it may, not only does the solution to the conflict seem more distant than ever,
but the two-State solution itself is beginning to seem unfeasible.
The Israeli settlers are already so numerous that it is obvious that they are not going to
leave the West Bank, and of course, Israel is not going to leave the security and transit routes
of these settlements in Palestinian hands. Something that has caused both Israelis and
Palestinians to begin to weigh up another possibility... Of course, as you will see,
it doesn't seem to be a viable solution either. Listen up.
(A SINGLE STATE FOR TWO PEOPLES)
Israeli settlers have more and more power and influence in parliament
and also in the civil life of Palestine. Perhaps this has contributed to an idea that
has been slowly growing in Israeli politics: To turn Palestine, particularly the West Bank,
into a kind of protectorate or permanent colony. In other words,
annex the territory and throw the two-State solution into the dustbin once and for all.
And take note, because according to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute conducted in 2020, just
under 30% of Israelis were clearly opposed to this idea. And after the latest war with Hamas in 2021,
this percentage may have dropped even further. Of course, under no circumstances is there any
question of granting citizenship to the nearly 3 million Palestinian inhabitants of the West Bank,
let alone those of Gaza. Prime Minister Naftali
Bennett himself is a known supporter of this proposal: annex the West Bank,
shelve any idea of a possible Palestinian State and grant a
certain autonomy to the Palestinian area. But of course, an autonomy that would not
be much greater than the one they already have today with all the problems we have outlined:
In short, one State – Israel – with two separate and very unequal legal regimes.
As harsh as it sounds, it would be someting like recognizing a model similar to Apartheid.
A model that could not change,
because the Israelis themselves would never be willing to do so. For several reasons.
First and foremost because of an essentially demographic issue.
Right now, between Israel and Palestine, taking into account both the West Bank and Gaza,
there are more than 7.3 million Arabs and only 6.8 million Israeli Jews. In other words,
the Arabs are already in the majority. And not only that. In addition,
Palestinian birth rates are much higher than Israel's. And if we exclude from
the mix the ultra-Orthodox Jews, who also contribute nothing to Israel's strength,
then in a few years the Arab majority would be overwhelming.
Precisely for that reason, Israelis would never be willing to share political power
or recognize the Palestinians' right to participate in national institutions.
Then there would also be, of course, the strong economic differences between the two territories.
What can I say, it doesn't seem that Israel is willing to finance the development of Palestine,
from roads to hospitals equivalent to its own. Something that in the long run,
and given the lack of expectations of being able to have their own State,
would only add fuel to the fire. Which by the way is well documented.
As we have already seen in the case of Afghanistan, some studies by the
University of Oslo and also by the London School of Economics suggest that lack of prosperity is
a key ingredient of revolutionary and radical processes, particularly in Muslim countries.
So what we would have in the face of a possible annexation of the West Bank,
would basically be the worst of solutions.
But take note because it is not only Israelis. According to a recent poll,
only 40% of Palestinians still believe in the two-State solution.
So if one thing is clear, it is that things cannot continue as they are.
Firstly, because it is intolerable that in a modern democracy there
are citizens with rights and citizens without rights. And secondly because,
fans of VisualPolitik, let’s not kid ourselves: This is the perfect breeding ground for things
to get even more difficult in the future. So the question we might be wondering is: How on earth
can this situation be put back on track? There is no single answer and no certain
answer. But could the solution involve the active participation of the Arab powers?
(A TRANSITIONAL ARAB PROTECTORATE?)
Following the Abraham Accords, relations between Israel and the major Arab powers are normalizing.
And if we are honest, it seems unlikely that there could be an alternative solution to the two-State
strategy, but either someone steps on the accelerator or it will soon be totally unfeasible.
Israel wants security, for example, against Hamas attacks from Gaza.
The problem is that, by itself, it cannot achieve this because it is still the "enemy",
with all that this implies. In the end, restrictions,
detentions, and hardships only feed suspicion, hatred and confrontation.
But what if the international community were to commit to providing security?
For example, by creating and financing real Palestinian institutions whose work
would be supported by an armed force composed of police and military from other Arab countries?
A force that would arrive not to occupy Palestine but to support temporarily the
creation of a real Palestinian state. In this way, perhaps institutions could
be put in place that, working alongside Israel and the international community,
would be able to take effective control of the territory.
At the same time, economic reforms and investment plans could be implemented
to boost the Palestinian economy. Sooner or later this would allow the walls,
barbed wire fences, checkpoints and fortifications along the green line to be demolished.
Perhaps many Israeli politicians prefer the status quo, but that should not be an option.
Anyway, this is only one of many possibilities, all of them complicated and perhaps impossible.
But something needs to be done, don't you think?
Well, you know what? That's exactly the question we're asking you: What would you do?
Leave us your answer below in the comments. And you know, if you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like it and subscribe to VisualPolitik.
Thank you very much once again for being there. Take care and see you next time.