submarines are quiet, deadly and expensive. submarines come in
two main types diesel powered conventional submarines and
submarines that run on nuclear power. The US Navy's underwater
ambitions since the 1950s have been driven by nuclear a nuclear
powered submarine can stay out to sea for months and has almost
unlimited range. Combined with nuclear weapons. This makes the
Navy's so called Boomer sub. Some of the deadliest boats in
the history of humankind
Navy specifically has a very important part of this job its
ballistic missile submarines carry a substantial portion of
the US nuclear warheads. But even these billion dollar boats
have a set lifespan
Los Angeles class attack submarines and Ohio class
ballistic missile and cruise missile boats are getting older
and they need to be replaced. Our friends in Indonesia have
suffered a terrible tragedy in the last few weeks. With an old
submarine you know, we don't know what happened yet. But the
older a ship or submarine is, the more likely it is to suffer
an accident at sea. The Navy has ambitious goals for the future
of the fleet. But some problems could
stand in the way now the state of Navy shipyard infrastructure
is not great. On the way out the door the Trump administration
said over 400 ships in the battle force fleet plus 130 or
so unmanned vessels so a total fleet size of over 500 ships.
So how can the US Navy field the submarine fleet of the future
building ships is hard in crafting a vessel for wars even
harder. Boats like those in the Virginia class, which is an
attack submarine can cost $3.4 billion and take seven years to
build. These views are my own. Certainly I don't represent the
Department of Defense or the US Navy in any capacity. submarines
are really right at the center of Fleet design, partly because
that's an area where the US still considers itself to have
kind of an uncontested advantage. And since the 1950s,
the Navy has relied on companies such as General Dynamics
electric boat and Huntington Ingalls industries to produce
these nuclear powered underwater weapons of war. A Navy is a long
term project, and it requires some some real kind of visionary
leadership to ensure that the fleet remains relevant in the
capabilities that it has, and that we continue to replace
ships as they get older. Which is why the US Navy has what is
known as a 30 year plan. To build these ships, the US Navy
needs shipyards operating at full strength.
Right now the Navy is go undergoing a 20 year plan that
costs $21 billion to upgrade its infrastructure. They've been
underfunded for the past couple of decades as have been other
priorities. Right now we're hitting a point where there are
very significant maintenance delays. The US Navy currently
has 68 submarines in service
and the Navy wants to start shipbuilding on two to three
Virginia class subs per year in roughly one Columbia class per
year until around 2035. The Columbia class is a ballistic
missile submarine capable of launching nuclear weapons 1000s
of miles. It's a crucial part of American nuclear policy. The
Navy estimates the total cost $109.8 billion for 12 boats, but
experts at the US Government Accountability Office remain
concerned about the ability of the US to build these boats with
current shipyards and suppliers how large the Navy can become
and how many submarines that can build are all controlled by the
defense budget passed in Congress. There is there is a
very real conversation that has to take place about where our
budget is prioritized. This roughly 1/3 mix going to the Air
Force the army in the in the Navy doesn't really suit our
strategic reality
from fiscal year 2015 to 2019. Though shipyards completed 75%
of maintenance periods for submarines and aircraft carriers
too late, you know over time, and that accounted for over 7000
days of maintenance delay. So the Navy is trying to fix that
they've made some progress in the last two years, but there's
still a lot of work to be done. If the Navy messes up a 30 year
plan the consequences could be devastating.
China's shipbuilding capabilities have skyrocketed in
the last two decades, Chinese shipyards have been churning out
commercial ships and military vessels at a rapid pace. This
has left the US Navy with a dilemma on how to allocate
precious tax dollars to keep up. China operates a mix of nuclear
subs and conventional subs, but its Navy also operates mainly
close to its own shores. That means the range of Chinese
submarines is less of an issue.
Our nuclear strategy is different, it's specific, and to
sustain it we need a triad. The
nuclear triad refers to the three main ways the US could
deploy nuclear weapons by land
by air and by sea. The Navy specifically has a very
important part of this job its ballistic missile submarines
carry a substantial portion of the US nuclear warheads. And it
is the most survivable leg of the nuclear triad. So once a
nuclear submarine is out to sea, it's sailing in the middle of
the Atlantic or the Pacific oceans, it's nearly impossible
for an adversary to detect that.
This is why replacing existing Ohio class submarines armed with
ballistic missiles is such a big concern within the US Navy.
So the Columbia class submarine is the ballistic missile
submarine. The goal is a 2028 delivery to the Navy and early
2030s. You'll start seeing them you know, subbing in for the
Ohio class, the Ohio class started the false one was
delivered in 1984. And those have a 42 year lifespan so we're
starting to hit the end of of their lifespans. And the
Columbia game the Columbia class out there, as I mentioned, is a
Navy's number one priority. In early 2021. The US Government
Accountability Office expressed concerns that the new Columbia
class could take longer than expected to build and also cost
more than initially expected. That could put the Navy in a
very tough spot.
A conventional submarine is one that isn't powered by nuclear
fuel. The majority of submarines in the world fall into this
category. Conventional subs are cheaper and don't carry the risk
of a nuclear accident. And perhaps more importantly,
they're quieter than nuclear subs. These stealthy
conventional submarines known as SS Ks have embarrassed the US
Navy before a Swedish submarine part of the Gotland class became
infamous for its ability to quietly dodge US Navy anti
submarine forces in 2005. During the joint naval exercise, a
Swedish Navy boat was able to skirt past escort ships and
achieve a simulated killing a US nuclear powered aircraft
carrier. So modern SS Ks are very, very quiet. And that's an
incredible advantage that's really kind of been one of the
game changers in in recent decades is the rise of these
very, very stealthy SS Ks for a submarine fleet that that does
operate closer to home. That's great, you know, you're getting
very similar bang for the buck, but it just stays closer to
home. That's the biggest downside to conventional
submarines. They can't stray as far from shore as the nuclear
counterparts and they can't stay out to sea for as long. But
uncrewed submarines, also known as unmanned underwater vehicles,
or uuvs, could be able to help solve this problem.
unmanned underwater vehicles uuvs. So these are basically
drones that can either travel on the surface or underwater for
long durations.
Russia has already been working on an uncrewed nuclear powered
submarine that is also potentially armed with nuclear
weapons.
This submarine drone was one of several exotic nuclear weapon
systems that President Putin announced a few years back. The
motivation for these is kind
of puzzling. The US Navy hasn't invested in this kind of risky
technology yet, but other types of uncrewed submersibles could
be part of the future fleet. For now, nuclear powered attack
submarines, ballistic missile submarines and cruise missile
submarines will continue to be the primary force that the Navy
uses to project underwater power around the world.
As we talk about the growth of the Navy moving forward that is
large that is largely fueled by more submarines. You know,
Congress is concerned about the length of the Navy's plan to
revitalize its public shipyards. And, you know, to to beat that,
you know, recently proposed bill led by Senator wicker $25
billion. 21 of which would fund this AI up 4 billion which would
go to the private shipyards. So the idea being that they could
help the Navy speed that
up how the defense budget shakes out and Congress could mean the
difference between building one Virginia class submarine per
year or three and some politicians have pushed for
fewer ballistic missile submarines as part of a hard
look at the size of the US nuclear deterrent. In a request
for comment in reference to a Congressional Budget Office
appraisal, the Navy said that quote, focusing on improving
productive capacity by initiatives to increase on time
delivery and operational availability while reducing
maintenance costs,
the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review highlighted this idea of hedging
against an uncertain future. our adversaries are increasing their
capabilities all the time, the United States is increasing its
capabilities all the time, technology can rapidly change.
So we need to build a nuclear force that the designer nuclear
force to last for decades, people from the army Are you
know, soldiers feeling like I'm trying to take their budget away
from my service, you know, but it is it is really a very,
it's a bigger issue. It's not a competition. It's not a rivalry.
It's a recognition that we we need those ships to be able to
execute the national strategy the United States as currently
spelled out