Dear Fellow Scholars - this is Two Minute Papers with Károly Zsolnai-Fehér,
It is time for some minds to be blown - we are going to talk about a philosophy paper.
Before we start, a quick definition - an ancestor simulation is a hypothetical computer simulation
that is detailed enough that the entities living within are conscious. Imagine a computer
game that you play that doesn't contain mere digital characters, but fully conscious beings
with feelings, aspirations and memories.
There are many interesting debates among philosophers on crazy elusive topics, like "prove to me
that I'm not in a dream", or "I'm not just a brain in a bottle somewhere that is being
fed sensory inputs." Well, good luck.
In his paper, Nick Bostrom, philosopher offers us a refreshing take on this topic, and argues
that at least one of the three propositions is true:
- almost all advanced civilizations go extinct before achieving technological maturity,
- there is a strong convergence among technologically mature civilizations in that none of them
are interested in creating ancestor simulations.
and here's the bomb - we are living in a simulation
At least one of these propositions is true, so if you say no to the first two, then the
third is automatically true. You cannot categorically reject all three of these because if two are
false, the third follows. Also, the theory doesn't tell which of the three is true.
Let's talk briefly about the first one. The argument is not that [we go] extinct before
being technologically advanced enough to create such simulations. It means that all civilizations
do. This is a very sad case, and even though there is research on the fact that war is
receding there's a clear trend that
we have less warfare than we've had hundreds of years ago. (I've linked a video on this here from Kurzgesagt) It is still possible that humanity
eradicates itself before before reaching technological maturity. We have an even more powerful argument
that maybe all civilizations do. Such a crazy proposition.
Second point. All technologically mature civilizations categorically reject ancestor simulations.
Maybe they have laws against is because it's too cruel and unethical to play with sentient
beings. But the fact that there is not [one person] in any civilization in any age who
creates such a simulation. Not one criminal mastermind, anywhere, ever. This also sounds
pretty crazy.
And if none of these are true, then there is at least one civilization that can run
a stupendously large number of ancestor simulations. The future nerd guy just goes home, grabs
a beer, starts his computer in the basement and fires up not a simple computer game, but
a complete universe. If so, then there are many more simulated universes than real ones,
and then with a really large probability, we're one of the simulated ones. Richard Dawkins
says that if this is the case, we have a really disciplined nerd guy, because the laws of
physics are not changing at a whim, we have no experience of everyone suddenly being able
to fly.
And, as the closing words of the paper states with graceful eloquence:
In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence
roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).
Please note that this discussion is a slightly simplified version of the manuscript, so it's
definitely worth reading the paper, if you're interested, give it a a go. As always, I've
put a link in the description box.
There is no conclusion here, no one really knows what the answer is, this is open to
debate, and this is what makes it super interesting.
And my personal opinions, conclusion. It's just an opinion, it may not be true, it may
not make sense, and may not even matter. Just my opinion. I'd go with the second. The reason
for that is that we already have artificial neural networks that outperform humans on
some tasks. They are still not general enough, which means that they are good at doing something,
like the deep blue is great at chess, but it's not really useful for anything else.
However, the algorithms are getting more and more general, and the number of neurons that
are being simulated on a graphical card in your computer are doubling every few years.
They will soon be able to simulate so many more connections than we have, and I feel
that creating an artificial superintelligent being should be possible in the future, that
is so potent that it makes universe simulation pale in comparison. What such a thing could
be capable of, it's already getting too long, I just can't help myself. You know what? Let's
discuss it in a future Two Minute Papers episode.
I'd love to hear what you Fellow Scholars think about these things. If you feel like
it, leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
Thanks for watching and for your generous support, and I'll see you next time!