>> Sandra: FOX NEWS ALERT ON
THIS TUESDAY MORNING, ON THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS OUR ECONOMY
REOPENS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER
COUNTRIES.
THE MARKETS ARE UP BIG THIS
MORNING ON POSITIVE NEWS OVER
VACCINES.
THE DOW IS UP 675 POINTS SO IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE TURNING A
CORNER, AT LEAST FOR NOW.
"THE WALL STREET JOURNAL"
FEATURING THIS HEADLINE THIS
MORNING FOR ECONOMY, THIS
SHUTDOWN MAY BE OVER.
HOTEL BOOKINGS AND THERE ARE
SIGNS THE ECONOMY IS COMING BACK
TO LIFE.
LARRY, GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME.
IT FEELS SO GOOD TO BE ABLE TO
TALK POSITIVELY ABOUT THE
REOPENING OF THE COUNTRY, THE
STOCK MARKET IS RISING.
THE S&P 500 BACK ABOVE 3,000
SINCE MARCH 5TH WE HAVE NOT BEEN
ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
I HAVE NOT ASKED TO PREDICT
WHERE THE STOCK MARKET IS GOING
BECAUSE I KNOW THE ANSWER.
BUT HAS THE ECONOMY HIT BOTTOM
AMID THE PANDEMIC?
>> I THINK IT’S POSSIBLE.
I MEAN I THINK YOU ARE IN A
TURNING ZONE PHASE AND AS WE’VE
SAID TIME AND AGAIN, THE
SECOND QUARTER IS GOING TO BE A
ROUGH QUARTER.
IT’S A PANDEMIC CONTRACTION.
LOTS OF HARDSHIP ON THE
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS AND A LOT OF
HEARTBREAK THERE.
BUT THESE SIGNS, AND I THINK THE
MARKET IS A RALLYING ON SIGNS,
THESE SIGNS ARE SHOWING A LOT
MORE GLIMMERS OF HOPE AND GROWTH
AND ASSIGN SEEM TO BE MOUNTING.
THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBER,
THE NUMBER WAS UP A BIT WHICH
WAS GOOD BUT IN SIX MONTHS THEY
HAD THE SIX-MONTH EXPECTATION
COMPONENT AND THAT’S WHERE YOU
SEE A BIG TAKEOFF AND CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE.
I THINK FOLKS SEE THAT THE VIRUS
FIRST OF ALL IS FLATTENING ON
ITS WAY DOWN AND THEY SEE
BUSINESS OPENING, THEY
THEMSELVES FEEL LIKE GOING OUT
AND SPENDING AND THESE ARE ALL
VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT
WILL SHOW UP IN THE DATA,
PERHAPS IN JULY OR AUGUST.
THE THIRD QUARTER COULD BE THE
FASTEST GROWING QUARTER IN U.S.
HISTORY AND THE WHOLE
SECOND HALF IS GOING TO BE VERY
STRONG AS WE REOPEN THE ECONOMY
AND AS AMERICANS COME BACK TO
RECOVERY.
THIS IS A TRANSITION TO
RECOVERY, AND AS THE PRESIDENT
SAID, TRANSITION TO GREATNESS.
>> Ed: LARRY YOU ARE LOOKING
AT POSITIVE HOPEFUL SIGNS, AND
YOU HAVE SOME WE HAVE SLOW
WALKING ON REOPENING PARTS OF
THE ECONOMY PERHAPS TO HURT HIM
POLITICALLY.
THE WALL STREET EDITORIAL
JOURNAL, THE BLUE STATE LOCKDOWN
BLUES COME THE SLOW REOPENING
LIBERAL STATES WILL HURT THE
RECOVERY AND THEY SAY
CALIFORNIA, NEW YORK AND
NEW JERSEY MAKE UP 30% OF THE
ECONOMIES OF THEIR BUSINESS
CARNAGE WILL AFFECT FARMERS,
MEAT PROCESSORS, TRUCKERS,
MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS
NATIONWIDE.
WHAT’S YOUR MESSAGE TO SOME OF
THE STATES LIKE CALIFORNIA THAT
ARE MOVING SO SLOWLY?
>> THESE ARE STATE DECISIONS AND
GOVERNOR DECISIONS.
THE PRESIDENT HAD SAID I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE REOPENING.
I WANT TO SEE THE BUSINESSES
REOPEN AND THEN THE JOB NUMBERS
ARE GOING TO COME IN MUCH, MUCH
BETTER.
BUT IT’S GOT TO BE DONE SAFELY.
IT HAS TO BE DONE SAFELY.
I CAN’T MAKE THAT JUDGMENT, I
WILL LET THE PRESIDENT MAKE THAT
JUDGMENT, AND HE HAS A
BIRD’S-EYE VIEW PERHAPS THAN I
DO.
BUT I THINK THOSE GOVERNORS KNOW
THAT FOLKS WANT TO GO BACK TO
WORK AND FOLKS WANT TO RESTART
THEIR BUSINESSES.
THERE ARE TINY SIGNS EVEN IN
SOME OF THOSE STATES OF THE
REOPENING.
SO WE WILL SEE, IT’S GOT TO BE
DONE SAFELY AND YOU HAVE TO HAVE
THE SOCIAL DISTANCING, YOU HAVE
TO HAVE THE TESTING AND SO FORTH
AND NOBODY DISAGREES WITH THAT.
I LIKE TO SEE IT FAST BUT IT’S
GOT TO BE SAFE.
YOU KNOW, PEOPLE -- WE BELIEVE
IN PERSONAL FREEDOM.
A LOT OF PEOPLE WANT TO EXERCISE
THEIR PERSONAL FREEDOM AND TO
GET OUT THERE AND START SHOPPING
AND RUNNING THEIR SMALL
BUSINESSES AGAIN.
SO WE WILL SEE.
THE POINT IS AT THE MARGIN, WE
WILL BE MAKING VERY GOOD
PROGRESS AND WE HAVE THESE
GLIMMERS OF HOPE, WE HAVE THESE
GREEN SHOOTS.
TEN YEARS AGO I USED TO CALL
THEM MUSTARD SEEDS THAT WILL
GROW UP INTO A MAJOR RECOVERY.
I THINK THE SAME THING IS
HAPPENING NOW ONLY ON A LARGER
SCALE.
>> Sandra: BUT ONLY YOU AS AN
ECONOMIST TO THE PRESIDENT HAVE
BEEN PLANNING THE UNKNOWN AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES.
AND SHE DOESN’T THINK THAT THE
U.S. STOCK MARKET IS TOO
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT, AND
WHAT HE FEARS IS THE
VULNERABILITY IS CONSIDERING OUR
SKY-HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RIGHT NOW
BECAUSE OF THE PANDEMIC, THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE VACCINE AND
A SECOND POSSIBLE WAVE OF THE
CORONAVIRUS.
WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE ARE THOSE
HIDDEN VULNERABILITIES FOR OUR
ECONOMY?
>> YOU KNOW, YOU TALK TO OUR
HEALTH EXPERTS AND THEY WILL
SAY, WE KNOW SO MUCH MORE AND WE
HAVE SO MUCH MORE EXPERIENCE
NOW.
LET’S ALSO GO, WE ARE REALLY
DOING LIGHTNING SPEED THE FIRST
OF ALL ON THE DEVELOPER TO
VACCINES AND THE DEVELOPER TO
THERAPIES AND MEDICINES WHICH I
THINK ARE VERY IMPORTANT.
I THINK PEOPLE WOULD BE HAPPY OR
EVEN TO KNOW THAT IF THEY GET
THE VIRUS, THERE IS A MEDICINE
AND A THERAPY THAT THEY COULD
TAKE TO DEAL WITH IT RIGHT AWAY.
THE SCIENTISTS AND THE BIOTECH
COMPANIES, THE PRESIDENT HAS
ALWAYS STRESSED THE PRIVATE
SECTOR COMPONENT AND THAT’S PART
OF THE BRILLIANCE OF HIS
ECONOMIC THINKING.
THEY ARE PROBABLY GOING TO
PROVIDE THERAPIES VERY SOON, AND
REGARDING VACCINES, IT TAKES A
LITTLE LONGER BUT AGAIN WE HAVE
DEREGULATED SO WE ARE MOVING AT
WARP SPEED ON THAT AS WELL.
LOOK.
I CAN’T DOUSE EVERY RISK, I
CAN’T SAY THIS WON’T HAPPEN OR
THAT WON’T HAPPEN BUT ALL I’M
SAYING IS WE ARE GIVING OUR BEST
SHOT AND EVENTS ARE MOVING
RAPIDLY IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THAT’S THE ABSOLUTE KEY POINTS.
>> Ed: LARRY ON THE QUESTION
OF MORE STIMULUS FOR THIS
ECONOMY, WE HAVE ALREADY DONE A
LOT AND IT, YOU WANT TO SEE THE
MONEY WASHED THROUGH THE SYSTEM
INSTEAD OF SPENDING AND, IT’S A
$450 PER WEEK BACK TO WORK BONUS
FOR PEOPLE.
WHAT HE’S TRYING TO GET AT AS
YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYONE, AND
THEY ARE GETTING MORE MONEY ON
UNEMPLOYMENT THAN THEY WOULD IF
THEY GO BACK TO WORK.
IT IS THE BACK TO WORK BONUS THE
SEED OF SOMETHING DOWN THE ROAD
THAT YOU MIGHT GET BEHIND?
>> IT MAY WELL BE, IT’S
SOMETHING THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
VERY CAREFULLY.
SENATOR PORTMAN HAS A GOOD IDEA
AND HE UNDERSTANDS INCENTIVES
AND DISINCENTIVES.
THE TROUBLE WITH THE $600 PLUS
UP AND MAYBE WE NEEDED IT AND
THAT EMERGENCY.
TO COME BUT FRANKLY IT’S A MAJOR
DISINCENTIVE TO GO BACK TO WORK
AND WE DON’T WANT THAT, SO WE
ARE LOOKING AT THAT.
I THINK THE BASIC POINT IS
CORRECT.
I WOULD ALSO ADD THAT THE
PRESIDENT IS A FIRM SUPPORTER OF
THE PAYROLL TAX HOLIDAY AND
THAT’S AN INCENTIVE, BECAUSE IT
WOULD INCREASE HALF THE INCOME.
ALREADY WE HAVE DONE IT ON THE
BUSINESS SIDE.
THAT HAS BEEN SOME COMBINATION.
I FRANKLY DO NOT BELIEVE THE
$600 PLUS UP WILL SURVIVE THE
NEXT ROUND OF TALKS BUT I THINK
WE WILL HAVE SUBSTITUTES TO DEAL
WITH THAT ISSUE.
>> Sandra: AT THE NUMBERS
BEFORE THIS PANDEMIC HIT, IT WAS
WATCHING WITH CHINA.
CAN YOU UPDATE US THIS MORNING
ON WHERE THINGS STAND?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
THE TRADE DEAL IS INTACT AND OUR
LEADERS HAVE BEEN IN
CONVERSATION WITH VICE-PREMIER.
AT THE TRADE DEAL IS INTACT FOR
THE MOMENT OR SO THE CHINESE
SAY.
SO THAT’S OKAY.
AND WE WILL SEE WHETHER THEY
HAVE IMPLEMENTED ON THE SCHEDULE
OR NOT.
HOWEVER THERE IS A NUMBER OF
ISSUES WHERE CHINA HAS DONE VERY
BADLY.
VERY, VERY BADLY.
NONTRANSPARENCY HAS BEEN PUTTING
IT MILDLY, THEY BASICALLY
CONCEALED FACTS AND
INFORMATION’S ABOUT THE ORIGIN
OF THE CORONAVIRUS THAT HAS HAD
GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS WHICH HAVE
MADE IT WORSE.
THEY HAVE SENT THEM TO HELP, AND
CHINA FOR A LONG TIME WOULDN’T
LET US DO THAT SO WE LOST A
TREMENDOUS GROUND WHICH IS VERY
UNFORTUNATE.
BUT THEY ARE DOING RIGHT NOW IN
HONG KONG IS TAKING OVER
NATIONAL SECURITY, AND THAT’S
REALLY ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS.
ESSENTIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE ONE
COUNTRY AND ONE SYSTEMATIC COULD
BE BE A TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM.
WE DON’T KNOW YET, BUT THE
NATIONAL SECURITY MEASURES WE
WILL TAKE IS A VERY DISTURBING
MATTER. ANOTHER THING, CHINA COMPANIES
ANOTHER THING, CHINA COMPANIES
DON’T PLAY BY THE RULES, THEY
CONCEAL INFORMATION AND THEY
DON’T PASS MUSTER ON ANY OF THE
BLUE SKY LAWS THEY MUST COMPLY WITH NORMAL ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
WITH NORMAL ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
AND THEY WON’T DO THAT.
SO TRADE YES, BUT THERE’S A LOT
OF OTHER ISSUES.
>> Sandra: IS A PRESIDENT
WILLING TO BACK OUT OF THE DEAL?
>> I DON’T KNOW, I’M NOT GOING
TO SPEAK TO THE PRESIDENT ON
THAT POINT, I ASSUME YOU MEAN
THE TRADE DEAL.
HE HAS SAID RECENTLY THAT HE IS
NOT, BUT HE HAS ALSO MISSED WHAT
THE CHINESE HAVE DONE REGARDING
THE VIRUS AND OTHER MATTERS,
THAT THE TRADE DEAL IS NOT AS
IMPORTANT TO HIM AS HE ONCE WAS.
THE COST AND LIVES LOST, BECAUSE
OF CHINA’S CONCEALMENT AND
MISINFORMATION AND COLLUSION
WITH THE W.H.O., THAT IS A MAJOR
COSTS IN HUMAN TERMS IN ECONOMIC
TERMS.
A LOT OF THAT COULD’VE BEEN
AVOIDED.
I WILL LET HIM SPEAK OF COURSE
ON THE FINAL POLICY DECISIONS
BUT I CAN TELL YOU THAT IS THE
BACKGROUND MUSIC RIGHT NOW.
>> Ed: AS WE CLOSE
CONVERSATION, CAN YOU GIVE US AN
IDEA OF WHERE THE BIG PICTURE --
WHERE YOU THINK WE ARE?
I DON’T WANT TO SAY WE ARE
PESSIMISTIC, BUT THE NUMBERS
COMING IN ARE NOT GOOD IN TERMS
OF THE PANDEMIC AND THE VIRUS.
IN FACT THEY ARE DOWNRIGHT BAD
IN MOST CASES.
BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME GLIMMER
PERHAPS, THERE’S A LOT OF
HEARTBREAK AND HARDSHIP.
BUT THIS MORNING HE SAVED
OPTIMISTIC.
WE ARE WHERE THE PRESIDENT
BELIEVES WE ARE IN DEALING WITH
THIS PANDEMIC AND TURNING THE
ECONOMY AROUND.
>> I THINK I NEEDED MORE CAFFEINE FOR THAT
CAFFEINE FOR THAT
"WASHINGTON POST"."
THAT’S 20% GROWTH AND I CITED
ALL OF THOSE POSITIVES.
I HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE
PANDEMIC HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL AND
THE MITIGATION POLICIES AND THE
SHUTDOWN HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THE ECONOMY AND THERE IS A LOT
OF HARDSHIP.
AND I REGRET THAT VERY, VERY
MUCH. I THINK IN THAT SENSE WE ARE
I THINK IN THAT SENSE WE ARE
JUST BEING REAL, AND I NOTICED
ONE OF MY PALS FROM THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE AISLE, OBAMA
SUPPORTER ESSENTIALLY CAME UP
WITH THE SAME SCENARIO THAT KEVIN HASSETT AND I HAVE BEEN
KEVIN HASSETT AND I HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT >> Ed: WE