Jorge Beltrao is an 18 year old school student in London. This September he was all set to
head off for his first year at university.
I was planning to go to Nottingham University and study philosophy, politics and economics.
Then the coronavirus pandemic hit and Jorge changed his mind about going. With all the
social distancing and lockdown measures in place. He wasn't sure he was going to get
the full university experience.
It was really hard actually to not go to university. I'd hear stories from my sister who's graduated
and she'd tell me about all the great times she'd had, especially her first year and freshers week
and all. I mean it sounds unimportant but actually the social is actually probably a
big part of uni because you'd be making new friends, but I don't want to pay the money
and for it not to be the full experience. I mean, it sounds unimportant compared
to the rest of the sort of coronavirus consequences but it it is my future that it is going to be impacting.
Jorge is not alone. Zamzam Ibrahim is the head of the UK's National Union of Students.
The commitment to go to university is a huge financial commitment. And so if you're going
to make that huge financial commitment, then you need to know what you're getting at the
end of it, then that's really what's happening to this cohort of students who are about to
step into university and make a huge decision. So yeah, the average deferment is 3% of students,
don't actually go on to further education and take a year out. This year, that number is
going to go up to 20%, which is huge. It's a significant number. And if anything, I wouldn't
be surprised if that number is actually even higher.
Zamzam Ibrahim and more from her a little later. That potential lack of students this
year could have huge financial implications for universities and colleges around the world.
In the UK, for example, universities say they expect to lose eight and a half billion dollars
in revenues, and in the US they're warning of a $45 billion loss. But as in other sectors
of the economy, the idea of bringing thousands of people together on a university campus
is fraught with danger.
We've found that the connections between students are very close and these small world networks
on a college campus really create a fertile social condition for the spread of a disease
like the coronavirus.
Kim Weeden is professor of sociology at Cornell University in the
US. She conducted a study to see how it might fare in the current pandemic.
Even though only 2%, more or less of Cornell students take a class with any other random student
chosen on campus, it only takes three degrees of separation or three steps to reach 92%
of other students on campus. So if you think about that, it basically means that if I'm
taking a course with one person, and that person is taking a course with a third student,
and the third students is of course with a fourth student, it's really only three steps
between me and that fourth student. And you can get 92% of the students on campus connected
just through those indirect networks that are created by taking a course together.
And what is it about life on campus that leads to this rate of infection?
I think one of
the main challenges that universities are facing is that the same connections that creates
such a vibrant intellectual environment on college campuses also create the conditions
for the spread of a disease.
Like many other universities around the world, Cornell thinks the answer is to offer online
courses instead classes and lectures by say zoom or some other social media app. How does
Professor Kim Weeden feel about that?
There are some instructors who excel at online instruction and there are some instructors
who maybe aren't so good at in person instruction. Speaking from experience, I just think it's
very difficult to read verbal cues from students when you're staring at a screen with you know,
40 or 50 or 100 zoom profiles. It's just very difficult to make those connections. And I
think that attention spans also weigh in. It's exhausting, frankly, to stare at a screen
and to keep engaged all day. I think it's just a lot easier when you're in a face to
face setting. I think that students often learn and engage ideas when they talk to each
other And that becomes very difficult in the context of an online educational experience.
Still, that's not stopping universities from trying. Universities like that in Edinburgh,
for example, which like many here in the UK get a big chunk of their funding from student
fees. The rest comes from government grants and other sources. Edinburgh university's
principle and Vice Chancellor is Professor Peter Mathieson. I started by asking him,
what's the atmosphere like on campus at the moment.
It's quiet. I mean, I know we're allowed to go for exercise once a day. And I'm sad enough
to want to walk around bits of the campus to see how things are. So I quite often use
my evening exercise to walk around bits of the campus. And it's certainly not the normal
vibrant place that you'd expect a university campus to be. But we're very confident that
we can continue to provide a very high quality education for for students, both national
and international.
So a lot of teaching will move online, which takes away that imperative of actually being
on campus to experience the university?
Well, I don't entirely agree. I mean, I think some teaching can be delivered face to face,
probably in small groups. And of course, there's a whole load of the aspects of the university
experience, which are nothing to do with what goes on in the classroom. So there's a lot
of enjoyment of the city, particularly a fantastic city like Edinburgh. There's a lot of social
activities, a lot of cultural activities. And we're trying to think of ways that those
can still be provided with social distancing and with people's health and safety in mind.
So it's not just about the large scale lectures, which which will undoubtedly be changed. But
there's a lot of other things which we hope we can provide some continuity. So it won't
be exactly the same as before, but it can certainly aim to give people a good all round
student experience.
But are you worried that fewer people will apply to university as a result, and that
that will have a financial impact?
Yeah, I mean, it's an inevitable concern. And we like most research intensive universities
the University of Edinburgh depends upon income from particularly from international students
to cross subsidise some of our other activities most notably research. And so if we lose some
of that income and we have fewer students than before, our ability to cross subsidise
our other activities is is reduced. And we've got to think about ways of mitigating that.
And that's why, for example, we've taken the decision to suspend our capital programme
because we want to be sure that we don't take on projects that we can't afford to complete.
Are you concerned though, that students will want to pay less and they're going to be saying,
well, we're not getting the original university experience, and as a result, we won't want
to pay the full fee.
There is a debate about that the UK Government's certainly so far taken the line that they
don't expect the changes in tuition fee levels. Again, I think if we can offer students a
really genuine student experience, I believe that a degree from the University of Edinburgh
will be every bit as valuable for this cohort as it has been for the last 400 years. And
so they're coming to study at one of the world's great universities and they'll emerge with
a degree which will stand them in very good stead in the future. And I think that is worth
the investment. And it's not the case that online education is necessarily cheaper because
doing it to a high standard and producing the right quality materials requires considerable
upfront investment. So it's not as if we're saving money in the short term on providing
online education because we're not.
Professor Peter Mathieson of Edinburgh University. And that's the thing providing high quality
education, whether online or in person is an expensive business. That's why for many
universities, international students are key. In the UK, for example, they're charged much
higher fees than domestic students. It's a similar picture in places like Australia and
New Zealand. Simon Marginson, is professor of higher education at the University of Oxford.
He says dependence on international students has left some universities financially vulnerable.
In the UK, Australia, New Zealand and a small number of other countries, international students
have become integral to the core funding of higher education especially its research effort.
In the case of the UK, it's run education as an export industry. And it's become very
large scale export industry altogether generating more than 20 billion a year for the UK.
Those are large numbers, but as a proportion of all the funding that a university such
as the one where you are the University of Oxford, what proportion is that of the funding
that the University of that size needs?
Well, direct fees, tuition payments by international students to universities constitute about
6 billion of that 20 billion figure that I gave you. I mean, the rest of the money is
in the spending of international students on housing, and entertainment and food and
all the other things that international students need to live in the UK. In terms of their
level of financial dependence. We think that about 18% of all University funding is coming
from international students or it was before the pandemic began. I can't give you the figure
for Oxford but it's probably higher.
And is it is it similar in Australia and New Zealand?
Similar in New Zealand. In Australia, the level of dependency is higher. There it's more like
25% of all University revenues. It is very high. And there are cases where international
students constitute half of the student body. In the United States it's a lower level
of dependence. It's more like 5% of all students overall, compared to the 20% here.
So obviously, these universities are all looking at this pandemic and thinking if we can't
keep those international students coming, we are really in financial trouble.
Well, I think that sums it up. I think the universities are already anticipating big
drops in numbers, while the pandemic continues to eat into their capacity to provide face
to face education. I mean, online education can be very good. But for international students,
it's the in country immersion in you know the English language environment, especially
if you're coming from a non English speaking country. immersion living in the English speaking
environment is tremendously formative and helpful in your language ability and your
later capacity to work globally in business or other professional sectors. And the experience
of you know, things like our vocational and work experience programmes, classes themselves,
those things make it more attractive. So online only is less attractive to international students.
So I think as a result, we're looking at drops of, you know, perhaps in the next academic
year in the Northern Hemisphere drops of say, 50, or even 80% overall.
In terms of numbers of international students. Do you think universities around the world
will go bust now as a result or do you expect to see that?
It's entirely up to the policy government systems around the world? I mean, I think
in some countries, they'll sustain higher education, like they'll sustain other necessary
parts of, of public provision and other countries, some universities will go bust.
Just to just to be clear, when you say that you mean you think that some governments will
step in and make up for the lack of funding from international students?
I can't imagine that say the Dutch universities will be allowed to close. I'm quite sure that
the Dutch government will sustain them. It's really central important institutions in society.
There's a consensus in the Netherlands about the importance of universities. It's not a
political argument. It's just a social fact that universities are central institutions.
I don't detect the same certainty in the English speaking countries. I think there's a view
that universities are just often, you know, just special players, you know, out there
to try and advance their own position. You can't trust them, when they say they need
money, they always ask for more money. The pushback is no make them you know, make them
work harder and make them become more efficient. Maybe they're too dependent on international
students, it's their fault. So in that kind of environment, things can go wrong. I mean,
we can lose institutions, carelessly, perhaps. The strong research universities
in the UK are going to see this out. And that's where I currently work. I'm very fortunate.
But what I'm aware of is that young people, new researchers, new PhD graduates, promising
talent. It's that generation which is at risk. A lot of the best work in universities is
done by young researchers when they've got tremendous energy, new ideas enthusiasm. There
won't be enough opportunities for this generation of doctoral graduates to come into the system
and make their contribution.
But are any universities going to come out well, from this pandemic?
One of the effects is going to be to strengthen the countries in East Asia, which have now emerged
as strong university systems, and have also managed the pandemic better than most of the
rest of the world. South Korea, China, Singapore, maybe Japan emerges perhaps stronger destinations
for international students than they were. I don't think you're going to get a wholesale
movement away from UK, US and Western Europe into East Asia.What you're going to see is
a faster rate of growth in East Asia, in international student education, than in the rest of the
world for probably the next five years or so. So some rebalancing is going to occur.
So there'll be three strong zones, there'll be the English speaking world, which will
be the still the strongest, there'll be Western Europe, and there'll be East Asia.
Professor Simon Marginson from the University Oxford. What then can universities in the
English speaking world do to convince international and domestic students not to turn their back
on going to college this September? Back to Peter Mathieson of Edinburgh University.
For someone who has applied to Edinburgh University got a place is, you know, do to start in September,
but as umming and ahhing about it because they're worried about a that they're not going
to get value for money that they're not going to go through the usual university experience
- what would you say to reassure them?
I'd encourage them to come we're listening to their concerns, we're trying to respond
to them, we can do everything we can to protect their safety, we can give them the best education
we can in what may be quite changing circumstances. But as I said earlier on, I think an Edinburgh
degree will remain a very valuable commodity. And I would say also that the alternatives
to university don't look attractive in the sense that people will sometimes defer their
studies either to take on jobs or to travel and clearly taking on jobs is going to be
difficult in a worldwide recession. And travel is going to be restricted. So in many ways,
I would encourage them to think that they're going to be safe here. They can enjoy their
education and they can do well here and it'll be a very good investment for what will be
a changed world for years to come after coronavirus.
Will that convince students though, a question for Zamzam Ibrahim of the UK National Students
Union who we heard from earlier.
The coronavirus, it could be with us for a very long time yet.
And social distancing may be with us for a very long time yet. Do you think students
might just have to get used to the fact that for the foreseeable future, going to university
isn't going to be the same experience as it has been? There's going to be less face to
face teaching. No more freshers week, that kind of thing. Can you see students eventually
having to just accept that that is the new reality?
I think students and young people in general are probably like the ones that are like
agile and able to adapt to change, right. I don't think students expect to be going back
to campus when it's not safe there, that's not something that they want. But actually what
needs to be made clearer and I think what they should expect isn't for them to get poor quality
education, that isn't a compromise that any student should ever make, especially the financial
commitment that they'll be making. And so there's a role for these universities and
also the government to play in ensuring that quality education, all these young people
deserve is put in place. I mean, it's clear that we're heading into a recession, right?
And we know the only way that we come out of a recession is to re skill and retrain
your workers. And so actually, education is the answer to solving the issues that are
literally coming our way.
But in the meantime, our South London student Jorge Beltrao
has made other plans.
So my plan next year actually is reapply to Oxford University now, because I've been given
time to prepare. But I actually really want to do some work experience at maybe a
conservation charity in Africa for maybe a couple of weeks, and then also just maybe just
worked for a while. Do some work experience maybe involved in politics - it's one of my interests.
But I don't want to be going to university if it's not going to be this full experience,
which is universities are probably very angry about it. They'll be very upset because we
know that we'll be struggling. But once again, we don't want to be going to university out of
pity for the university. We want to go for our own futures.
Student Jorge Beltrao. So it looks like tough times ahead for universities. And the question
now is which will survive and which won't, and will governments help out. That's it
from this edition. Today's producer was Edwin Lane.