Let’s talk about the AUKUS submarine deal, and what impact it will have on the military
balance of power in the Pacific region.
Is China actually afraid of the future Australian submarines?
Why, or why not?
We will explore these questions.
Australia is obviously far smaller in terms of population and economy than China, however
eight nuclear-powered submarines are still a significant force.
New information on the AUKUS programme has been unveiled.
They centre around the timeline for acquiring the submarines.
There are three main phases.
In phase 1: The US and the UK will train Australian sailors and engineers to operate nuclear-powered
submarines.
This includes sailing the subs underneath the ocean, and maintaining the boats inside
drydocks, and making use of dedicated infrastructure.
Starting in the year 2027, the US will deploy four Virginia attack class submarines to Stirling,
a naval port near Perth in Western Australia, over four years.
Nuclear fuel for the reactors will be provided by the US, but Australia will deal with the
nuclear waste, including spent uranium fuel rods.
Around 2030, the UK will deploy one Astute class attack submarine to Australia.
The five or so submarines will be deployed as part of what the three countries are calling
the “Submarine Rotational Force West”, basically a de facto fast response force to
deploy against China if so desired.
The Virginia class is one of most renowned nuclear attack submarines in service.
They are very well-armed with a dozen vertical launch cells to fire cruise missiles, in addition
to the regular torpedo armament.
They are reputed to be very silent and stealthy.
The Astute is a classic short-range attacker.
It doesn’t have the same VLS armament as the Virginia, so it cannot fire a large salvo
of missile at the same time, but it remains silent and very dangerous.
While the Submarine Rotational Force West is being formed, Australia will start constructing
submarine shipbuilding yard, infrastructure, and maintenance facilities in Adelaide, in
the south coast of the country.
Additionally, Australia will invest in US and UK shipbuilding industries to help these
countries tackle production constraints.
So basically, expanding the overall size of the submarine production capacity, across
the three countries.
In Phase 2: The US will sell between three and five Virginia class submarines to Australia,
starting in 2032.
The submarines will be manned by Australian sailors, who will have been trained to operate
the nuclear-powered submarines, but could include personnel from the US and the UK.
In Phase 3: Australia and the UK will start building the so-called AUKUS class submarine,
which will be a modified version of the next generation SSN(R) submarine that Britain is
already designing.
However, the first boats are not expected to enter service for two decades.
So, Australia may finally see the first proper AUKUS submarine in 2042, at the earliest.
This is a very long time before the first submarine actually appears in Australian hands.
Australia and the UK will co-build the submarines, but the UK may have a bigger share of the
production early on, while Australia builds up its manufacturing facilities for the submarines.
The majority of the Australian submarines will be produced in Australia, according to
one US official.
The UK began studies on a new generation of SSNs in 2018, which were later named the SSN(R),
and later the SSN AUKUS.
They will incorporate US technology.
They will be powered by the Rolls-Royce Pressurised Water Reactors, and will include a large VLS
module for launching cruise missiles.
This would be a first for Royal Navy submarines, which currently can only launch missiles via
their torpedo tubes.
The submarine may also have capability to launch unmanned underwater vehicles, potentially
delivering an autonomous underwater warfare capability.
These all sound pretty formidable, so far.
The prospect of eight extra submarine is nothing to sneeze at, and on the surface, they should
have big potential for power projection.
Hypothetically, eight actual submarines may very well influence Chinese decisions in military
and foreign policy, in favour of Australia.
However, the efficacy of the entire program breaks down when one starts to look at cost.
The cost of the AUKUS program is reportedly somewhere between $286 and $386 billion Australian
dollars, roughly $190 to $257 billion US Dollars.
The canned Attack class submarine, originally to be built by France, was slated to cost
$80 billion for procurement alone.
The price tag for AUKUS program is many multiples of that number.
So, Australia will basically be operating eight attack submarines for around $250 billion.
That amounts to roughly over $30 billion per submarine, in lifetime cost.
And that is just incredible.
The huge expense of the AUKUS programme would severely cut into the available funding for
the remainder of the Australian Navy.
The schedule to build additional surface combatants would no doubt be severely affected – programmes
including the Hunter class frigates (the Australian copy of the UK Type 26), and the Arafura class
offshore patrol vessels.
It is basically inevitable that development of these warships will be delayed going into
the future, if not outright cancelled, as precious resources are poured into the precious
submarines.
And across the Pacific Ocean, China is certainly not sitting still.
Chinese naval shipyards are continuing to churn out new anti-submarine surface warships,
including the new Type 054B blue-water frigate, a nice addition to its huge fleet of anti-submarine
frigates and corvettes.
China is ramping up production of its own nuclear-powered attack submarines.
The Asian giant is building more and more Type 093B attack submarines.
These are very silent, and they come with a large VLS module that can launch huge salvos
of the YJ-18 anti-ship missiles.
These missiles are far deadlier than anything housed inside the Virginia class.
More importantly, China is building the submarines right now, and building large numbers of them,
rather than twenty years later.
China is of course also building the Type 095 advanced SSN, which at a broad stroke
may well be on par with the Virginia class.
Conventional submarines continue to be built in large numbers as well.
By 2045, the Pacific Ocean will be filled to the brim with Chinese submarines.
The AUKUS SSN will be too little, too late.
Finally, it must be noted that large nuclear submarines are far from ideal for operating
in shallow waters close to China.
The French-designed attack class, being smaller, were far more suitable, and they don’t cost
an arm a leg, and an upper torso.
To finish, I will leave you here a quote by Mr Paul Keating, a former Prime Minister of
Australia: “For $360 billion Australian dollars, we're going to get eight submarines.
It must be the worst deal in all history”.
And I would agree.
To see a detailed overview of Chinese Navy submarine forces, watch this video on your
screen right now.
That will be all folks, see you next time.