Let's be honest.
The atrocious and vile invasion of Ukraine was quite a surprise to the vast majority
of analysts, experts and journalists in both the military field and international politics.
And in some ways we are no exception.
The truth is that a full-scale invasion seemed unthinkable.
A military intervention like this, with fronts, the shelling of cities and troops deployed
throughout Ukraine did not seem a feasible scenario.
Basically because no one expected Vladimir Putin to shoot himself in the foot like this.
The invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing international sanctions have put the Russian economy on
the ropes and cut it off from the rest of the world.
Becoming an aggressor nation par excellence has been one of the most absurd decisions
in international memory.
In Ukraine, Russia had nothing to gain and a lot to lose.
And it is not just the sanctions or the military casualties suffered.
Russia's invasion has also united NATO, strengthened the Atlantic axis and encouraged Europeans
to spend more on rebuilding their armed forces.
The war in Ukraine has triggered something like a journey back in time.
Suddenly, the Cold War seems to have returned:
N1(27 February 2022: Putin puts nuclear deterrent forces on 'high alert' amid spiraling tensions
over Ukraine.
NBC)
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And so the
blunt truth is this, Russia may be an impoverished, isolated and corrupt country, but it is still
one of the great nuclear powers.
In quantitative terms we are talking about nothing less than the largest nuclear power
on the planet.
That's why we want to answer a few questions in this video:
What exactly does nuclear deterrence consist of and how does it play a part in Moscow's
plans?
In which scenarios is Russia planning to use nuclear weapons?
Could they ever be used on Ukrainian battlefields?
Also, we will tell you why nuclear weapons can no longer protect Putin.
Let's get started.
As far back in time as 1949, the Soviet Union succeeded in exploding an atomic bomb for
the first time.
The nuclear era of the communist bloc had begun.
From then on, one of the major obsessions of the Soviet bigwigs was to build up more,
and more, and more of their nuclear arsenal.
To give you an idea, it is estimated that the Soviets had accumulated about 45,000 nuclear
warheads just before the Soviet Empire collapsed.
Initially, the nuclear doctrine of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics pursued two
objectives at the same time: a political goal and a military goal.
From a political perspective, the USSR's nuclear arsenal was intended to multiply the country's
international influence.
After all, no other State was capable of going head-to-head with the United States.
On the other hand, from the military perspective, the Soviets' idea was to have their regime
prevail in the event of a war that might eventually result in a US nuclear attack.
And so, the Soviets were convinced that having more nuclear weapons than the Americans would
give them the ultimate victory in a large-scale conflict.
However, things got so out of hand that in the 1960s, for the first time, the two powers
recognized the term MAD; Mutual Assured Destruction.
And with it, victory ceased to be an objective and gave way to deterrence.
No bloc could ever win such a war.
Precisely for this reason, just a few years later the two powers signed their first agreement
to limit strategic weapons and ballistic missile capabilities.
But...
That is all in the past.
It has been more than 30 years since the Soviet Union ceased to exist and it was the current
Russian Federation who, by agreement of all parties, ended up keeping all the nuclear
weapons of the Soviet empire.
And although the terrifying nuclear arsenal has been dwindling ever since, the Russian
bear still has approximately 6,400 nuclear warheads if we take into account the warheads
currently deployed, those in reserve and those in the process of being dismantled in the
near future.
A number – 6,400 nuclear warheads – which, although far from the historical peak reached
by the Soviet Union, still makes Russia the largest nuclear power on the planet by number
of warheads.
Check it out.
So with this in mind the first question I'm sure many of us are wondering is:
What plans does Russia have for these weapons, how and in what scenarios does it plan to
use them?
Listen up.
1(RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR AMBITION)
No matter how many tyrants are at the helm, even in war there are usually rules, especially
when we are talking about an arsenal as destructive as nuclear weapons.
And, of course, Russia is no exception.
Military doctrine is the set of principles that determine the hypothetical cases and
types of military actions that order the actions of an army depending on the circumstances.
Well, the latest Russian military doctrine dates back to 2014, but in June 2020, the
Russian government approved a new document entitled "Basic principles of State Policy
of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence".
This document updated the threats and circumstances under which Russia could consider using nuclear
weapons.
And the question is, at which point does this doctrine say that Russia could use its huge,
terrifying and annihilating arsenal of atomic bombs?
That is the question.
In theory, Moscow considers nuclear weapons to be exclusively a means of deterrence.
But of course, the key is knowing what exactly the term "deterrence" means in Vladimir Putin's
Russia.
Well, firstly, according to the doctrine in force, Russia would launch a nuclear attack
in response to another nuclear attack or other types of weapons of mass destruction used
against Russia or its allies.
Secondly, they would also resort to using them if they had credible data of the imminent
launch of ballistic missiles against Russia or its allies, or in response to an attack
with conventional weapons on critical government or military sites in Russia.Thirdly and lastly,
and very importantly, the Russian doctrine provides for the use of nuclear weapons in
the event that a conventional conflict could endanger the existence of the State itself.n
these cases, the preference would always be to use nuclear weapons against large military
targets, such as airfields or large naval bases, which would ensure great destruction
in the enemy ranks with a single strike.
Well, these are the cases in which the Russian Federation would consider using its nuclear
warheads.
But, of course, at this point, the question many of you may be asking is:
Let's see, [host], everything you are telling me is pretty subjective.
What would happen if NATO were to defend Ukraine or intervene militarily in Belarus?
Would Putin get to use any of these weapons if the war is going badly for him?
In principle, we all take it for granted that nuclear weapons exist not to be used.
But the truth is that they have already been used, and that if Vladimir Putin has proven
to be anything, it’s unpredictable.
The Russian president likes to play hardball.
In fact, one of the first things Putin did when he came to power was to approve a new
military doctrine that expanded the scenarios in which Russia could use its nuclear weapons.
For example, it included, as a possible case, the scenario of a regional war, instead of
the assumption of global war that was previously in force.
Also, and this is very important, it included the possibility of using nuclear weapons in
the first instance and not only in response to an enemy attack.
Western military intelligence and analysis services even suggest that the Russian high
command could consider using these weapons to de-escalate a conventional war against
NATO that Russia is losing.
This is known as the "escalate to de-escalate" strategy.
I attack first, destroy and then negotiate if the opposing side does not want to fall
into mutual destruction.
This is something, however, that the Russians strongly deny.
C1("The expert community has long insisted that [this document] be published, so that
we would not be accused of maintaining doctrines imagined by the Americans, such as, for example,
escalation for de-escalation.
That is, claiming to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in a conventional conflict."
– Viktor Esin, Former Chief of the General Staff and Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the
Russian Strategic Missile Forces)
What is certain is that, as Russia has fallen further and further behind economically and
technologically, the prominence and importance of nuclear deterrence has become more and
more central to the Kremlin's security strategy.
After all, for all practical purposes, it is much less expensive to have up-to-date
nuclear weapons and delivery devices than to have huge military equipment endowments
such as large naval or air fleets.
I think with the invasion of Ukraine we have all been able to see the enormous shortcomings
the Russian military has.
In other words, if it were not for nuclear weapons, Russia would not even be considered
a superpower.
That is why for Moscow, and particularly for Vladimir Putin, it is essential that nuclear
power is very present in his political discourse.
And this, this is precisely what explains news stories like the one we saw previously.
Do you remember it?
N2(27 February 2022: Putin puts nuclear deterrent forces on 'high alert' amid spiraling tensions
over Ukraine.
NBC)
Or news headlines like this:
N3(Russia launches hypersonic missiles in nuclear drills to "show strength" during tensions
with Ukraine.
Independent)
It is not that the Russian president is seriously thinking of launching himself into mass destruction,
but because he knows that this is really his only trump card in trying to gain international
influence.
Understanding that helps put such rhetoric into perspective.
In principle, the military doctrine in force in Russia does not allow the use of nuclear
weapons even if a conventional war confrontation were to occur in Ukraine between the Russian
army and NATO troops.
In fact, it is not Russia's nuclear arsenal per se that generates the most fear, but the
lack of restraint and prudence that its leader demonstrates time and again.
But now that we understand the situations when Russia might use its nuclear weapons
and why, in one way or another, they tend to feature so prominently in Russia’s rhetoric,
the question is: what exactly are Russia's nuclear capabilities?
Well, let's take a look.
2(MUTUAL ASSURED DESTRUCTION)
Three words as expressive as they are terrible that marked the Cold War and that Putin now
seems determined to bring back.
However, the nuclear arsenals of the two great powers have undergone many changes and cutbacks
in recent decades.
Largely thanks to the agreements reached between Russia and the United States.
The latest of these agreements is New START, signed in 2010 between the administrations
of Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev.
This agreement was due to expire in February 2021, but two days before it was due to expire,
Biden and Putin agreed to extend it in extremis for five more years until February 2026.
Now, why is this important and what does this agreement consist of?
Well, basically New START limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons that each country
can have at a maximum of 1,550, with 700 ballistic systems between land, sea and air.
Russia's nuclear-capable strategic forces consist of intercontinental ballistic missiles,
ten nuclear-capable submarines of the Delta, Typhoon and Borei classes, and between 60
and 70 heavy bomber aircraft.Russia is currently believed to have some 310 intercontinental
missiles spread across 11 bases distributed throughout Russia.
These missiles, mostly of the Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry or MIRV type, are capable
of carrying up to 1,189 nuclear warheads, although only about 800 are deployed for use.
Russia is currently in the process of modernizing its strategic weapons, and it is expected
that by 2022 it could have replaced all of its Soviet-era missiles.
In addition, it is also believed that Russia could have in service the first Avangrad missiles,
which is the first Russian hypersonic ballistic system capable, in theory, of evading conventional
anti-missile shields.
This technology, which the United States also has, looks like the future of nuclear deterrence,
which is why countries like North Korea are also trying to develop them.
Be that as it may, the fact is that in December 2020 Putin said that by early 2022 around
88% of its strategic nuclear forces would be modernized.
Well we've already reached that date.
That's supposed to be the case right now.
[Of course, we have also endured years of propaganda about the intense modernization
of the Russian army, which later proved to be exaggerated when it came to the moment
of truth.
In the end, resources are what they are.
And in Russia, economic abundance is not a national feature].
As it stands, it is clear that the more than 6,000 nuclear warheads that Russia still maintains
are Putin's great shield.
The insurance that allows him to bet big on foreign policy while maintaining damage control...
At least militarily.
Because it seems that economic warfare and international isolation were never threats
taken into account by the Kremlin.
In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, that could be their big mistake.
But, at this point, there is one last question we have to answer: are so many nuclear warheads
really necessary to ensure deterrence?
Well...
Actually, no.
According to US research, 100 nuclear warheads would be enough for a country to ensure, even
in a worst-case scenario, nuclear deterrence.
Incidentally, this same study, piloted by a professor at Michigan Technological University,
concludes that it would be sufficient in terms of deterrence to establish a maximum of 900
nuclear warheads among the nine states that today have this military technology.
Nine hundred.
Do you know how many warheads there are in the world today?
Well...
Approximately 15,000.
It seems that Putin has always seen nuclear weapons as Russia's shield.
However, the Ukraine crisis has shown that this was a mistake.
In a past video we told you how Western allies are trying to damage, erode, even destroy
Russia's economic capacity.
In the face of such an attack that could end up taking Putin's own regime by storm, nuclear
weapons are completely ineffective.
Putin wanted to take us back to the dark days of the Cold War, but what can I say?
Times have changed.
And that is why, on this occasion, and just as happened in Chernobyl with the famous AZ-5
button, nuclear weapons can no longer protect Russia.
Once again, Moscow's mistakes in Ukraine may end up taking the ruling regime by storm.
Unfortunately, once again, Ukrainians will suffer the consequences more than anyone else.
Having said that, it’s your turn.
Do you think Putin would be capable of using atomic weapons in response to a NATO intervention
in a Russian invasion of a country like Ukraine?
Leave us your comments below.
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Remember that if YOU want to escape after a hard day of work or study and switch off
your mind, the free online PvP strategy game, Conflict of Nations, is worth checking out.
Choose your country, design your strategy and fight your way to victory.
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All the best and see you next time.